Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle

智力价值该项目的主要目标是改进社区地球系统模型中碳循环的十年和区域预测。 目前，即使在相同的人为强迫下，在完全复杂的气候碳模型中，大气碳的预测也存在很大的差异。陆地和海洋碳吸收预测的这种传播导致了气候强迫的巨大差异，从而导致了气候影响。下一届政府间气候变化专门委员会是第一个将包括所有模型的碳循环的模型，因此碳循环模型尚未受到与物理模型相同的严格分析。该项目将启动理解和改进社区地球系统模型中碳循环的过程。 目标是编译数据集，准备比较方法并开发指标，以促进模型的改进并减少地球系统模型碳循环未来气候预测的不确定性。此外，PI 将使用这些数据集来回答有关碳循环在区域和十年尺度上如何响应以及未来将如何演变的基本问题。该项目包括陆地、海洋和大气建模和模型/数据比较方面的专家，这是改善区域和十年尺度碳通量模拟的跨学科挑战所必需的。 更广泛的影响该项目包括编译和发布可用于改进碳通量预测的重要数据集和指标。 它将改进公开的社区地球系统模型。 该项目包括对 4 名研究生和 2 名本科生进行碳循环跨学科研究的教育。 它还包括针对博物馆临时展览的外展计划和 K-12 教师发展计划。

Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to improve the decadal and regional projections of the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. There currently is substantial spread in the predictions of atmospheric carbon among the full complexity climate-carbon models, even with the same anthropogenic forcings. This spread in predictions of the carbon uptake by the land and ocean result in large differences in climate forcing, and thus climate impacts. The next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the first that will include the carbon cycle for all models, and thus the carbon cycle models have not yet been subject to the same rigorous analysis that the physical models have been exposed to. This project will jump-start the process of understanding and improving the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. The goal is to compile datasets, prepare methodologies for comparisons and develop metrics that will facilitate improvements in the models and reduce the uncertainty in future climate projections of the carbon cycle for earth system models. In addition, the PIs will use these datasets to answer fundamental questions about how the carbon cycle responds on regional and decadal scales, and how it will evolve in the future. This project includes experts in modeling and model/data comparisons for the land, ocean and atmosphere, which is required for the cross-disciplinary challenge of improving simulations of regional and decadal scale carbon fluxes. Broader impactsThis project includes the compilation and publishing of important datasets and metrics that can be used to improve carbon flux predictions. It will result in improvements in the publically available Community Earth System Model. The project includes the education of 4 graduate students, and 2 undergraduate students in cross-disciplinary studies of the carbon cycle. It also includes outreach programs targeted at temporary exhibits at museums, and K-12 teacher development programs.