Collaborative Research: Type 1 L02170226: Developing and Implementing Ocean-Atmosphere Reanalyses for Climate Applications (OARCA)

合作研究：类型 1 L02170226：开发和实施气候应用海洋大气再分析 (OARCA)

• 批准号: 1049075
• 负责人: Benjamin Giese
• 金额: $ 44.37万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-02-01 至 2016-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049075&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Type; L02170226; Developing

Technical DescriptionThis research will develop new oceanic and atmospheric reanalyses with quantified uncertainties to address several unresolved questions in the area of observed climate variability and change since 1871. The work involves developing a hierarchy of numerical models resulting in a new reanalysis system called OARCA (Ocean Atmosphere Reanalysis for Climate Applications) to be used for understanding global and regional climate change and variability. The data assimilation system is based on two existing reanalyses: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis system (20CR) for the atmosphere and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation system (SODA) for the global oceans. The OARCA effort relies on high performance massively parallel platforms such as those at NCCS and DOE NERSC to produce the reanalyses. Its production will advance the knowledge of how to efficiently compute very large geophysical systems. The resulting state estimates of the climate system for the period 1871 to 2008 will be used to explore modes of decadal variability that include changes in the tropical Pacific circulation and variability of the Atlantic Merdional Overturning Circulation. These reanalyses will also help us better understand the decadal variability of climate phenomena such as drought cycles, El Niño, North American and Asian monsoons, and the low frequency variability of hurricane activity.Broader Significance and ImportanceThe resulting state estimate of the climate system will be distributed via data servers at Texas A&M and at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and University of Colorado CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center. Researchers will be able to use these data for their own studies of climate variability and climate change that range from the statistics of weather extremes to decadal variability and long-term trends. In addition to using the reanalysis to diagnose climate variability in the 20th Century, the state estimation will be available to be used for initial and boundary conditions for regional downscaling and decadal prediction models. The OARCA datasets will be useful to researchers interested in improving Earth System models by providing benchmarks and metrics with quantified uncertainties for testing and evaluating climate prediction models. The new reanalyses will provide to the research community SST(Sea Surface Temperature) analyses with error bars that are state dependent, which can be used as an objective verification of climate model AR5 regional trends and variability over long periods.

技术说明这项研究将开发新的海洋和大气再分析与量化的不确定性，以解决自1871年以来观测到的气候变率和变化领域的几个悬而未决的问题。这项工作涉及开发一个层次的数值模型，从而产生一个新的再分析系统，称为OARCA（海洋大气再分析气候应用），用于了解全球和区域气候变化和变率。数据同化系统是以两个现有的再分析系统为基础的：用于大气的二十世纪世纪再分析系统（20 CR）和用于全球海洋的简单海洋数据同化系统（SODA）。OARCA的工作依赖于高性能的大规模并行平台，如NCCS和DOE NERSC的平台来进行再分析。它的生产将推进如何有效地计算非常大的地球物理系统的知识。 由此产生的1871年至2008年期间气候系统的状态估计将用于探索十年变化的模式，包括热带太平洋环流的变化和大西洋经向翻转环流的变化。 这些再分析也将帮助我们更好地了解气候现象的十年变化，如干旱周期，厄尔尼诺，北美和亚洲季风，以及飓风活动的低频变化。更广泛的意义和重要性由此产生的气候系统的状态估计将通过数据服务器在得克萨斯州A M和NOAA地球系统研究实验室和科罗拉多大学CIRES气候诊断中心分发。研究人员将能够利用这些数据进行他们自己的气候变率和气候变化研究，从极端天气的统计数据到十年变化和长期趋势。除了使用再分析来诊断20世纪的气候变率外，状态估计还可用于区域降尺度和年代际预测模型的初始和边界条件。 OARCA数据集将有助于有兴趣改进地球系统模型的研究人员，为测试和评估气候预测模型提供具有量化不确定性的基准和指标。 新的再分析将为研究界提供SST（海表温度）分析，其中误差条取决于状态，可用作气候模型AR5长期区域趋势和变率的客观验证。