Type 1- L02170391: Collaborative Research: Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Causing Ice Shelf Melt in Antarctica (ACCIMA)

类型 1- L02170391：合作研究：大气-海洋耦合导致南极洲冰架融化 (ACCIMA)

• 批准号: 1049081
• 负责人: David Holland
• 金额: $ 37.48万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-02-15 至 2015-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049081&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Type; L02170391; Collaborative; Research; Atmosphere

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) represents about 10% of the entire Antarctic ice sheet. The WAIS is currently losing mass due to several of its outlet glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea. The rate of this mass loss, over natural accretion through snowfall, has also been increasing in recent years. One possible reason for this is increased basal melt of the seaward floating ice shelves of the region's terminal glaciers. This can result from a change in either the temperature, or circulation patterns, of the relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that enters the subglacial zone, providing heat to increase the basal melt rate. Because much of the WAIS bed lies well below sea-level and is therefore theoretically unstable, there is considerable interest in its stability and mobility of the WAIS ice shelves in a warming ocean. Complete disintegration of the WAIS could in principle raise global sea levels by as much as 4.8 m. Understanding the coupling of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), changes in ocean temperature and current regimes, along with the complexity of glacial bed physics and importantly the timescales over which these components interact is a challenging modeling and computational task. A team of researchers from Ohio State, Old Dominion University and NYU will develop and couple components of an earth systems model for the Southern Ocean with a regional emphasis on the West Antarctic. The component system models to be coupled include the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) for the atmosphere. The ocean component will be the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the sea ice component will be the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). Retrospective decadal simulations will be done to understand recent past variability. Downscaled future projections for Antarctica will be driven by the global National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCSM or its equivalent), which is also being used for the IPCC 5th Assessment simulations.This proposal is a responsive submission to the CRI-EaSM solicitation with goals to maximize the utility of available observational and model data for impact assessments through scaling activities and to effectively translate model results and associated uncertainties into the scientific basis for well-informed human adaptation to and management decisions for climate change, specifically addressing the risk of significant sea-level rise in the next century.

南极西部冰盖 (WAIS) 约占整个南极冰盖的 10%。由于数条出口冰川流入阿蒙森海，WAIS 目前正在失去质量。近年来，这种质量损失的速度与降雪自然增加的速度相比也在不断增加。造成这种情况的一个可能原因是该地区末端冰川向海漂浮冰架的基底融化增加。这可能是由于进入冰下区域的相对温暖的环极深水（CDW）的温度或环流模式发生变化，从而提供热量以增加基底融化速率。由于 WAIS 冰架的大部分位于海平面以下，因此理论上不稳定，因此人们对 WAIS 冰架在变暖海洋中的稳定性和移动性非常感兴趣。 原则上，WAIS 的完全解体可能会使全球海平面上升 4.8 m。了解厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 和南方环模 (SAM) 等大规模大气环流模式、海洋温度和海流状况的变化、冰川床物理的复杂性以及重要的是这些成分相互作用的时间尺度的耦合是一项具有挑战性的建模和计算任务。来自俄亥俄州立大学、奥多明尼恩大学和纽约大学的研究小组将开发并耦合南大洋地球系统模型的各个组成部分，重点关注南极西部地区。要耦合的组件系统模型包括大气天气研究和预报模型 (Polar WRF) 的极地优化版本。海洋部分将是区域海洋模拟系统（ROMS），海冰部分将是洛斯阿拉莫斯海冰模型（CICE）。将进行回顾性十年模拟以了解最近的变化。缩小规模的未来南极洲预测将由全球国家大气研究中心 (NCAR) 社区气候模型（CCSM 或同等模型）驱动，该模型也用于 IPCC 第五次评估模拟。本提案是对 CRI-EaSM 征集的响应性提交，其目标是通过扩展活动最大限度地利用现有观测和模型数据进行影响评估，并有效转化模型结果和相关内容。 不确定性成为人类适应气候变化和管理决策的科学依据，特别是应对下个世纪海平面大幅上升的风险。