Type 2 - LOI02170327 - A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment

类型 2 - LOI02170327 - 东北走廊区域地球系统模型：分析 21 世纪气候和环境

• 批准号: 1049181
• 负责人: Charles Vorosmarty
• 金额: $ 270万
• 依托单位: CUNY City College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049181&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Type; LOI02170327; Regional; Earth; System

The Northeast region (NE) exhibits many of the changes taking place across the Nation's landscapes and watersheds, yet also provides a unique lens through which to assess options for managing large-scale natural resource systems. The region has been transformed through early settlement, deforestation and land clearing to industrialization, urbanization and mega-city growth to post-industrialization. Such human actions will continue and arguably be more difficult to manage under the region's rapidly changing climate. Because atmosphere, land, and aquatic systems are closely linked through the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles, change to any one of these entities holds the potential for system-wide feedbacks, thresholds, and unintended consequences. The current capacity of scientists to understand human-environment systems over the regional domain and over multi-decades is limited, as are the tools for planners to formulate sound decisions. Funding is provided to build a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) that improves understanding and capacity to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy systems and economy through the 21st century. The model will be used to test whether there are regionally significant consequences of human decisions on environmental systems of the NE, expressed through the action of both natural and engineered human systems that dictate the region's biogeophysical state, ecosystem services, energy and economic output. The proposed research will be a major step forward in developing a capacity to diagnose and understand the state of large, interacting human-natural systems. Beyond its scientific value, a synthetic understanding of how humans interact with climate and environmental systems across entire regions is of enormous strategic importance both to the US and internationally. The globalization of environmental problems has gained a new sense of urgency in science and public policy circles, and along with a growing recognition that ecosystems services are important to human well-being, it is not difficult to articulate the many benefits of developing a more integrated perspective on large-scale human-environment interactions. This research has the potential to create a product of lasting benefit: a working dialogue to translate new science into better decisions. The professional development goal for the post-doctoral scientists supported on this project is to produce holistic thinkers who are technically competent are prepared to become leaders in the field of interdisciplinary Earth systems science. The project will also provide unique research opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, particularly in the area of interdisciplinary research, for which there is now a critical lack of sufficient training.

东北地区（NE）展示了发生在全国景观和流域的许多变化，但也提供了一个独特的视角，通过它来评估管理大规模自然资源系统的选择。该地区经历了从早期定居、森林砍伐和土地清理到工业化、城市化和特大城市增长到后工业化的转变。这种人类行为将继续下去，而且在该地区气候迅速变化的情况下，可能会更加难以管理。由于大气、陆地和水生系统通过水、能源和生物地球化学循环紧密相连，对这些实体中的任何一个的变化都有可能产生全系统的反馈、阈值和意想不到的后果。科学家目前了解区域范围和几十年的人类环境系统的能力是有限的，规划人员制定合理决策的工具也是有限的。东北区域地球系统模型（NE-RESM）旨在提高人们对21世纪规划决策对该地区环境、生态系统服务、能源系统和经济影响的认识和预测能力。该模型将用于测试人类对东北地区环境系统的决定是否存在区域性重大后果，这些影响通过自然和工程人类系统的行动来表达，这些系统决定了该地区的生物地球物理状态、生态系统服务、能源和经济产出。拟议的研究将是在发展诊断和理解大型、相互作用的人类-自然系统状态的能力方面迈出的重要一步。除了科学价值之外，对人类如何与整个地区的气候和环境系统相互作用的综合理解对美国和国际都具有巨大的战略重要性。环境问题的全球化在科学和公共政策圈中获得了一种新的紧迫感，随着人们越来越认识到生态系统服务对人类福祉的重要性，不难阐明对大规模人与环境相互作用发展更综合的观点的许多好处。这项研究有可能创造出一种具有持久效益的产品：一种将新科学转化为更好决策的工作对话。本项目支持的博士后科学家的专业发展目标是培养具有技术能力的整体思想家，并准备成为跨学科地球系统科学领域的领导者。该项目还将为本科生和研究生提供独特的研究机会，特别是在目前严重缺乏足够训练的跨学科研究领域。