INFEWS/T1: Climate-induced Extremes on the Food, Energy, Water Nexus (C-FEWS) and the Role of Engineered and Natural Infrastructure

INFEWS/T1：气候引发的粮食、能源、水关系极端事件 (C-FEWS) 以及工程和自然基础设施的作用

• 批准号: 1856012
• 负责人: Charles Vorosmarty
• 金额: $ 250万
• 依托单位: Research Foundation CUNY - Advanced Science Research Center
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-15 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1856012&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: INFEWS; T1; Climate; induced; Extremes

Understanding, mitigating, and adapting to physical climate change and extreme weather have become a strategic imperative across the U.S. Owing to the interwoven nature of the food-energy-water systems (FEWS), climate vulnerabilities are likely to express themselves as major risks to the environment and society well into the century. This study focuses on two strategically important regions of the U.S., the Northeast and Midwest, which together account for nearly half of the U.S. population and GDP. In these regions, landscapes are intensively managed and transformed; and, major decisions affecting global food production, biofuels, energy security and pollution abatement require critical scientific support. To help meet these challenges, this project will create a multi-regional analysis framework designed to identify and evaluate response options to extreme weather in the context of engineered (EI) and natural infrastructure (NI). The framework enables a systematic assessment of future policy options that will define the capacity of the regional FEWS to adapt to changing climate extremes and other environmental stressors from present-day to 2100. The work unites an interdisciplinary research team from academia and government that will link a set of existing models to simulate climate dynamics, biogeochemistry, engineered systems, and economics. The work is driven by a growing consensus on the limits of traditional engineering to sustainably deliver food, energy, and water, a situation that could potentially be improved by incorporating nature-based solutions. Comprehensive frameworks are essential to reveal such opportunities, especially in light of future climate extremes and their interaction with other environmental stressors.Two hypotheses guide this research. The first is diagnostic and the second prognostic. Both address the issue of climate trends and extremes and how these reverberate through the FEWS. Hypothesis-1is retrospective (1950-present) and generates knowledge about how the FEWS is "wired together" and how its sensitivity to climate shocks evolves out of shorter-term events and longer-term trends. The prognostic work under hypothesis-2 assesses potential interventions and climate adaptation strategies, including alternate technology deployments, NI management, and economic and regulatory policies over the next several decades. The work unites an interdisciplinary team whose unique combination of existing models and data sets will enable rapid progress in hypotheses testing, identifying causal links and making projections into the future. This project is designed to quantify FEWS thresholds, feedbacks and emergent properties as the system responds to climate change and its extremes, to environmental stressors, and to shifting economics, technologies and policy forcings. The project also analyzes short-term and legacy effects over time scales from sub-annual to century and will integrate FEWS dynamics across multiple disciplines as it considers physical, engineered, food security and economic sub-systems. These multi-dimensional studies will be executed using a customized version of an existing computational framework. While the initial focus is on the Northeast and the Midwest, pilot modeling experiments and workshops will develop a strategy to generalize this regional work to the national scale.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

由于食品能量 - 水系统的编织性质（少数），气候脆弱性很可能表达出对环境和社会的主要风险，因此了解，缓解和适应身体变化和极端天气已成为美国的战略当务之急。这项研究的重点是美国，东北和中西部的两个具有战略意义的地区，共同占美国人口和国内生产总值的一半。 在这些地区，景观经过深入管理和转化。并且，影响全球粮食生产，生物燃料，能源安全和消除污染的重大决定需要严格的科学支持。为了满足这些挑战，该项目将创建一个多区域分析框架，旨在在工程（EI）和自然基础设施（NI）的背景下识别和评估对极端天气的响应选择。该框架可以对未来的政策选择进行系统的评估，这些选择将定义区域性几乎不适合从当今到2100年不断变化的极端气候和其他环境压力源的能力。该作品将来自学术界和政府的跨学科研究团队团结起来，该研究团队将链接一组现有模型，以模拟气候动态，生物盖化学，BioGeochoChemistry，工程，工程，工程，工程和经济学。这项工作是由对传统工程局限性的越来越多的共识驱动的，以可持续提供食物，能源和水，这种情况有可能通过结合基于自然的解决方案来改善这种情况。全面的框架对于揭示这种机会至关重要，尤其是鉴于未来的极端气候及其与其他环境压力源的互动。两个假设指导这项研究。第一个是诊断和第二个预后。两者都解决了气候趋势和极端问题的问题，以及这些问题如何在几个地方回荡。 假设-IS回顾性（1950年至今），并产生有关几个人如何“在一起”的知识，以及其对气候冲击的敏感性如何从短期事件和长期趋势中演变出来。假设2下的预后工作评估了潜在的干预措施和气候适应策略，包括替代技术部署，NI管理以及未来几十年的经济和监管政策。这项工作使一个跨学科团队团结了现有模型和数据集的独特组合将在假设测试，识别因果链接并对未来进行投影方面的快速进展。该项目旨在量化几个阈值，反馈和新兴属性，因为系统对气候变化及其极端，环境压力源以及改变经济，技术和政策强迫的反应。该项目还分析了从次年到世纪的短期和遗产效果，并且将在多个学科中整合几个动态，因为它考虑了物理，工程，粮食安全和经济子系统。这些多维研究将使用现有计算框架的自定义版本执行。虽然最初的重点是东北和中西部，但试点建模实验和研讨会将制定一项策略，将这项区域工作推广到国家规模。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准通过评估来进行评估的。

项目成果

Prospects and challenges of regional modeling frameworks to inform planning for food, energy, and water systems: Views of modelers and stakeholders

为粮食、能源和水系统规划提供信息的区域建模框架的前景和挑战：建模者和利益相关者的观点

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1067559
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Frontiers in Environmental Science
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Tuler, Seth P.;Webler, Thomas;Hansen, Robin;Vörösmarty, Charles J.;Melillo, Jerry M.;Wuebbles, Donald J.
• 通讯作者: Wuebbles, Donald J.

The C-FEWS framework: Supporting studies of climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems at the regional scale

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1069613
• 发表时间: 2023-02-06
• 期刊: FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Vorosmarty，Charles J.;Melillo，Jerry M.;Vignoles，Daniel
• 通讯作者: Vignoles，Daniel

Simulating basin-scale linkages of the food-energy-water nexus with reduced complexity modeling

通过降低建模复杂性来模拟流域规模的食物-能源-水关系的联系

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1077181
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Frontiers in Environmental Science
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Bokhari, Hussain H.;Najafi, Ehsan;Dawidowicz, Jorin;Wuchen, Liushan;Maxfield, Nicolas;Vörösmarty, Charles J.;Fekete, Balazs M.;Corsi, Fabio;Sanyal, Swarnali;Lin, Tzu-Shun
• 通讯作者: Lin, Tzu-Shun

Influence of forest infrastructure on the responses of ecosystem services to climate extremes in the Midwest and Northeast United States from 1980 to 2019

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1069451
• 发表时间: 2023-03
• 作者: D. Kicklighter;Tzu‐Shun Lin;Jiaqi Zhang;Mengye Chen;C. Vörösmarty;Atul K. Jain;J. Melillo

Which crop has the highest bioethanol yield in the United States?

• DOI: 10.3389/fenrg.2023.1070186
• 发表时间: 2023-02
• 作者: Tzu‐Shun Lin;H. Kheshgi;Yang Song;C. Vörösmarty;Atul K. Jain