WSC-Category 3: A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Stage I Development

1360445(沃罗斯马蒂)。这项研究的重点是被称为“能源-水-气候联系”的国家重大挑战。具体地说，这项研究是从战略性水问题的角度，对电力部门基础设施和运营(电网)的可靠性和气候变化适应进行研究。电力行业是中国淡水的主要用户。它严重依赖这种资源，特别是在为其庞大的热电厂降温方面，这使得该行业对季节性供水中断的任何变化特别敏感。该研究小组最近在区域和国家范围内进行的能源-水关系研究揭示了几个可用于指导下一阶段研究的发现：(I)当前电力部门的基础设施对供水方面的气候限制、监管限制以及与其他部门对水的经济竞争非常敏感；(Ii)随着气候驱动的水循环变化以及人口和电力需求的增长，当今电力部门与水有关的脆弱性的频率和强度可能会增加；(3)与水有关的电力供应中断会对区域经济产生重大影响，如果不是对整个国家产生影响的话；(4)能源基础设施的不同技术组合和部署可以减轻系统冲击。这项研究特别关注电力基础设施，即向美国经济提供或能够提供电力的技术的类型、空间分布和投资水平。核心假设是，在预期的气候变化和不断上升的电力需求下，目前的电力部门基础设施组合在满足其水需求的背景下是不可持续的。除非技术替代方案和基础设施重新配置到位，否则水中介的反馈将在整个国民经济中产生负面影响，影响其他部门的生产率，以及美国在海外的竞争力。这项研究结合了三项正在进行的处理能源-水-气候关系的努力：(A)国家能源-水评估/SANDIA国家能源-水评估，(B)由国家科学基金会EaSM资助的关于扩大到全国范围的综合评估/政策参与工作的研究，以及(C)UCSB使用投入-产出模型进行的战略能源经济评估。主要的科学目标是建立一个国家能源-水系统评估框架(NEWS)，以便在预期的气候和经济变化的背景下评估：(1)国家电力部门的业绩；(2)改善气候适应的替代途径的可行性；(3)能源技术和投资权衡对经济生产力、水的可获得性和水生态系统状况的影响。NEWS将应用于到2050年的一系列情景研究中，利用AR5 RCP/SSP气候实现推动：可再生和不可再生电力生产及其水需求的技术评估模型；水文和热影响模拟；以及国家和国家以下各级的投入/产出经济模型。未来的气候和不断变化的能源需求将在环境法规和国家气候适应和缓解政策的背景下考验当前能源基础设施的极限。如果掌握了足够的知识、经济现实和政治意愿，包括可再生能源在内的新能源技术有望减轻电力部门的严重用水限制。组织这项研究是为了满足每一项要求。这项研究的重点是能源-水适应，并试图在数十年的时间框架内确定制约因素和机会。这项研究是由国家气候评估(NCA)中的建议推动的，研究小组在总体领导、章节编写和审查贡献方面做出了贡献。在NSF EaSM赠款下建立的政策审查程序将扩大到州、地区和国家利益攸关方的参与。这项研究是制定更完整的国家能源-水部门评估框架的第一阶段。还包括一项教育和劳动力发展计划，以培训下一代水科学家、战略规划者和政策制定者，以及促进未被充分代表的群体参与设计国家-S可持续的水未来。

1360445 (Vorosmarty). The focus of this research is on the national grand challenge known as the "Energy-Water-Climate Nexus." Specifically, this research is on the reliability of electric power sector infrastructure and operations (electric power grids) and climate change adaptation when viewed from the perspective of strategic water issues. The electric power sector is the nation's leading user of fresh water. It is critically dependent on this resource, particularly to cool its large population of thermoelectric power plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in seasonal disruptions of water supply. Recent energy-water nexus studies by this research team, done at regional-to-national scales, have revealed several findings that can be used to guide the next-stage of study: (i) current electric sector infrastructure is sensitive to climate constraints on water supply, regulatory constraints, and economic competition with other sectors for water; (ii) the frequency and intensity of water-related vulnerabilities in today's power sector is likely to increase with climate-driven changes in the water cycle plus growth in population and electricity demand; (iii) water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies, if not that of the nation as a whole; (iv) system shocks can be attenuated by different technology mixes and deployments of energy infrastructure. This research focuses specifically on electric power infrastructure, meaning the types, spatial distributions, and levels of investment in technologies that deliver or could deliver electricity to the U.S. economy. The central hypothesis is that today's portfolio of electric power sector infrastructure is unsustainable in the context of satisfying its water needs under anticipated climate change and rising electricity demands. Water-mediated feedbacks will reverberate negatively throughout the national economy, affecting the productivity of other sectors, as well as U.S. competitiveness abroad, unless technology alternatives and infrastructure reconfigurations are put in place. This research unites three ongoing efforts that have been addressing the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: (a) NREL/Sandia national energy-water assessment, (b) NSF EaSM-funded research on integrated assessment/policy engagement work expanded to national scale, and (c ) UCSB strategic energy economic assessment using input-output models. The principal science goal is to create a National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to evaluate, in the context of anticipated climate and economic change: (i) the performance of the nation's electricity sector; (ii) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, (iii) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the productivity of the economy, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. NEWS will be applied in a series of scenario studies to 2050 using AR5 RCP/SSP climate realizations to drive: technology assessment models for renewable and non-renewable power production and their water requirements; hydrology and thermal impact simulations; and input/output economic models at national and sub-national levels. Future climate and changing energy demands will test the limits of current energy infrastructure in the context of environmental regulations and national climate adaptation and mitigation policies. New energy technologies, including renewables, hold the promise of off-loading substantial water limitations in the electricity sector, that is, if sufficient knowledge, economic realities and political will are in hand. This study is organized to address each of these requirements. The focus is on energy-water adaptation, and the research seeks to identify constraints as well as opportunities over a multi-decade timeframe. This research is motivated by recommendations in the National Climate Assessment (NCA), to which the study team has contributed in terms of its overall leadership, chapter authorship and review contributions. A policy charette process, instituted under an NSF EaSM grant, will be expanded to engage state, regional, and national stakeholders. This research represents the first stage in developing a more complete national energy-water sector assessment framework. Also included is an education and workforce-development plan to train next generation water scientists, strategic planners and policymakers, as well as to promote participation of underrepresented groups in designing the nation?s sustainable water future.