WSC-Category 3: A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Stage I Development

1360445（Vorosmarty）.这项研究的重点是被称为“能源-水-气候关系”的国家重大挑战。“具体而言，这项研究是关于电力部门基础设施和运营（电网）的可靠性以及从战略性水问题的角度来看气候变化的适应性。电力部门是全国淡水的主要用户。它严重依赖这一资源，特别是为大量热电厂降温，使该部门对供水季节性中断的任何变化特别敏感。该研究小组最近在区域到国家范围内进行的能源-水关系研究揭示了若干可用于指导下一阶段研究的结果：（一）目前电力部门的基础设施对供水方面的气候制约、监管制约以及与其他部门的水资源经济竞争十分敏感;随着气候驱动的水循环变化以及人口和电力需求的增长，当今电力部门与水有关的脆弱性的频率和强度可能会增加; ㈢与水有关的电力供应中断对区域经济产生重大影响，如果不是对整个国家的影响的话; ㈣不同的技术组合和能源基础设施的部署可以减轻系统冲击。该研究特别关注电力基础设施，即为美国经济提供或可能提供电力的技术的类型，空间分布和投资水平。核心假设是，在预期的气候变化和电力需求不断上升的情况下，电力部门目前的基础设施组合在满足其水需求方面是不可持续的。水介导的反馈将在整个国民经济中产生负面影响，影响其他部门的生产力以及美国的海外竞争力，除非技术替代方案和基础设施重新配置到位。这项研究结合了三个正在进行的努力，一直在解决能源-水-气候关系：（a）NREL/桑迪亚国家能源-水评估，（B）国家科学基金会EaSM资助的综合评估/政策参与工作扩大到全国范围的研究，（c）加州大学B战略能源经济评估使用投入产出模型。主要的科学目标是建立一个国家能源-水系统评估框架，在预期的气候和经济变化的背景下评估：（一）国家电力部门的业绩;（二）改善气候适应的替代途径的可行性;以及（iii）能源技术和投资权衡对经济生产力、水供应和水生生态系统状况的影响。NEWS将应用于到2050年的一系列情景研究，使用AR 5 RCP/SSP气候实现来推动：可再生和不可再生能源生产及其水需求的技术评估模型;水文和热影响模拟;以及国家和次国家层面的投入/产出经济模型。未来的气候和不断变化的能源需求将考验目前能源基础设施在环境法规和国家气候适应和减缓政策方面的极限。如果掌握足够的知识、经济现实和政治意愿，包括可再生能源在内的新能源技术有希望减轻电力部门对水资源的严重限制。本研究旨在满足这些要求。重点是能源-水适应，研究旨在确定在几十年的时间框架内的限制因素和机会。这项研究的动机是国家气候评估（NCA）的建议，研究小组在其整体领导，章节作者和审查贡献方面做出了贡献。在NSF EaSM赠款下建立的政策查雷特进程将扩大到州、地区和国家利益相关者。这项研究是制定更完整的国家能源-水部门评估框架的第一阶段。还包括一个教育和劳动力发展计划，以培训下一代水科学家，战略规划者和决策者，以及促进代表性不足的群体参与设计国家？可持续的水资源未来。

1360445 (Vorosmarty). The focus of this research is on the national grand challenge known as the "Energy-Water-Climate Nexus." Specifically, this research is on the reliability of electric power sector infrastructure and operations (electric power grids) and climate change adaptation when viewed from the perspective of strategic water issues. The electric power sector is the nation's leading user of fresh water. It is critically dependent on this resource, particularly to cool its large population of thermoelectric power plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in seasonal disruptions of water supply. Recent energy-water nexus studies by this research team, done at regional-to-national scales, have revealed several findings that can be used to guide the next-stage of study: (i) current electric sector infrastructure is sensitive to climate constraints on water supply, regulatory constraints, and economic competition with other sectors for water; (ii) the frequency and intensity of water-related vulnerabilities in today's power sector is likely to increase with climate-driven changes in the water cycle plus growth in population and electricity demand; (iii) water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies, if not that of the nation as a whole; (iv) system shocks can be attenuated by different technology mixes and deployments of energy infrastructure. This research focuses specifically on electric power infrastructure, meaning the types, spatial distributions, and levels of investment in technologies that deliver or could deliver electricity to the U.S. economy. The central hypothesis is that today's portfolio of electric power sector infrastructure is unsustainable in the context of satisfying its water needs under anticipated climate change and rising electricity demands. Water-mediated feedbacks will reverberate negatively throughout the national economy, affecting the productivity of other sectors, as well as U.S. competitiveness abroad, unless technology alternatives and infrastructure reconfigurations are put in place. This research unites three ongoing efforts that have been addressing the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: (a) NREL/Sandia national energy-water assessment, (b) NSF EaSM-funded research on integrated assessment/policy engagement work expanded to national scale, and (c ) UCSB strategic energy economic assessment using input-output models. The principal science goal is to create a National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to evaluate, in the context of anticipated climate and economic change: (i) the performance of the nation's electricity sector; (ii) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, (iii) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the productivity of the economy, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. NEWS will be applied in a series of scenario studies to 2050 using AR5 RCP/SSP climate realizations to drive: technology assessment models for renewable and non-renewable power production and their water requirements; hydrology and thermal impact simulations; and input/output economic models at national and sub-national levels. Future climate and changing energy demands will test the limits of current energy infrastructure in the context of environmental regulations and national climate adaptation and mitigation policies. New energy technologies, including renewables, hold the promise of off-loading substantial water limitations in the electricity sector, that is, if sufficient knowledge, economic realities and political will are in hand. This study is organized to address each of these requirements. The focus is on energy-water adaptation, and the research seeks to identify constraints as well as opportunities over a multi-decade timeframe. This research is motivated by recommendations in the National Climate Assessment (NCA), to which the study team has contributed in terms of its overall leadership, chapter authorship and review contributions. A policy charette process, instituted under an NSF EaSM grant, will be expanded to engage state, regional, and national stakeholders. This research represents the first stage in developing a more complete national energy-water sector assessment framework. Also included is an education and workforce-development plan to train next generation water scientists, strategic planners and policymakers, as well as to promote participation of underrepresented groups in designing the nation?s sustainable water future.