Type 1 - The Dynamic Watershed and Coastal Ocean: Predicting Their Biogeochemical Linkages and Variability over Decadal Time Scales

这一试点项目旨在将流域、沿海海洋和大气的区域尺度地球系统模型结合起来，并将其嵌入全球气候模型。这种方法可以用来提出以下问题：区域模型的结果能否捕捉到沿海海洋中分水岭强迫的十年尺度变化？这些耦合模型能为负责流域和沿海地区的社区管理人员提供有用的信息吗？这个项目的重点是加利福尼亚州北部的鳗鱼河流域，该流域排放到门多西诺角附近的北太平洋。它的年流量很小，但它的产沙量是整个美国大陆上流域面积最大的。在过去的三十年里，科学家们对鳗鱼河进行了深入的研究，因此可以获得关于流域、河流和沿海海洋的重要信息。然而，这些单独的研究通常只持续有限的时间或有限的地区，因此全面的、跨学科的、基于数据的图景是不完整的。年代际变化和不规则的区域波动是该项目的主要焦点。在十年尺度上，将考察洪涝高峰期和严重干旱间隔期之间的差异。特别是，通过为这些极端情况制作事后预测，调查人员将测试耦合模型是否充分预测了这两种情况(以及它们之间的差异)。在加利福尼亚州北部沿海的区域空间域上，将对所提出的模型进行检查，以确定它是否能够区分在空间上分离但受相似天气模式影响的分水岭系统的特性。智力优势：该项目是首次全面尝试耦合和统一从分水岭到海洋的模型，然后将这些关联的模型嵌入全球气候模型中。流域模型的高分辨率将使研究人员能够确定流域环境和生态数据在多大程度上增强了相连模型的预测能力。分水岭模型将因其模拟营养物质向沿海海洋运输的能力而受到仔细审查。这将阐明当海洋特征(如沿海上升流)不突出时，陆地过程在控制沿海海洋生产力方面所发挥的作用。广泛的影响：流域和沿海地区社区的规划和管理工作必须纳入气候变化的可能性。我们的建模工作可以为政治、商业和文化领导人提供信息，解决他们的团队和地方可能面临的变化。因此，与这些领导人的合作者将受到追查。此外，建模结果将设计为用户友好型，并将提供给邻近的北加州社区。最后，安吉洛保护区是加州大学自然保护区系统的成员，也是鳗鱼河流域许多水生生态调查的基地，加州大学伯克利分校的许多班级都使用该保护区。该项目的建模结果将为进一步的课外体验打开另一扇窗。

This pilot project aims to couple regional-scale, earth system models for watersheds, the coastal ocean and atmosphere, and embed them in a global climate model. This approach can used to ask the following questions: Can the regional model results capture watershed-forced, decadal-scale variation in the coastal ocean? Can the coupled models provide useful information for community managers with responsibility for watershed and coastal locales?This project focuses on the Eel River watershed in Northern California, which discharges into the North Pacific near Cape Mendocino. Its annual discharge is small, but its sediment yield is the highest for its drainage area in the entire continental U.S. Scientists have studied the Eel River intensively over the last three decades, so important information on the watershed, river, and the coastal ocean is available. Nevertheless, these individual studies have commonly extended for only limited periods, or over restricted regions, so a comprehensive, interdisciplinary, data-based picture is incomplete. Decadal variability and irregular regional Fluctuations are the main foci of the project. Over decadal scales, differences between high flood periods and intervals of intense drought will be examined. In particular, by producing hindcasts for these extreme situations, the investigators will test whether the coupled models adequately predicted both circumstances (and the differences between them). Over regional spatial domains in coastal Northern California, the proposed models will be examined to determine if it can distinguish properties of watershed systems separated in space, but subjected to similar modes of weather.Intellectual Merit: This project is the first comprehensive attempt to couple and to unify models from the watershed to the ocean, and then embed these linked models within a global climate model. The high resolution of the watershed models will allow the investigators to determine the extent to which watershed environmental and ecological data enhances the predictive capability of the connected models. The watershed models will be scrutinized for their ability to simulate transport of nutrients to the coastal ocean. This will clarify the role terrestrial processes play in controlling coastal ocean productivity when oceanic features (like coastal upwelling) are not prominent.Broader Impacts: Planning and management efforts in the communities within watersheds and coastal locales must incorporate the potential for climate change. Our modeling endeavors can provide information to political, business, and cultural leaders that addresses possible changes that their groups and localities may face. Accordingly, the collaborators with such leaders will be pursued. Moreover, the modeling results will be designed to be user-friendly and will be made available to the adjacent Northern California communities. Finally, the Angelo Reserve, a member of the University of California Natural Reserve System, and the base for much of the aquatic ecology investigations in the Eel River watershed, is used by many UC Berkeley classes from a variety of disciplines. The modeling results from this project will open another window for further out-of-classroom experience.