CAREER: Geospatial Modeling of Tropical Cyclones to Improve the Understanding of Rainfall Patterns

职业：热带气旋的地理空间建​​模以提高对降雨模式的了解

• 批准号: 1053864
• 负责人: Corene Matyas
• 金额: $ 47万
• 依托单位: University of Florida
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-15 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1053864&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Geospatial; Modeling; Tropical; Cyclones

Both the atmosphere and the earth's surface act to change the structure of a tropical cyclone during landfall. These structural changes affect the overall spatial patterns of rainfall produced by the storm, which then control the magnitude and timing of flooding that may occur. Although models of tropical cyclones have incorporated geophysical variables such as wind shear and terrain to improve the prediction of rainfall totals, they are still lacking in their ability to accurately depict the geographical distribution of the rainfall. This project addresses the critical need to improve the spatial modeling of tropical cyclone rain fields. Shape analysis techniques employed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) will quantify the extent and locations of rain-producing regions of tropical cyclones, including heavy rainfall regions as defined by radar reflectivity returns. These regions will then be linked to key geophysical variables that influence the storm's structure through comparisons of observed patterns against data from model-generated storms. The research supported through this CAREER award will develop a set of metrics to describe shapes that tropical cyclone rain fields frequently resemble to determine the processes responsible for creating those shapes, and it will derive statistical models to predict those shapes. By modeling rain field shapes within a GIS, these shapes can potentially be incorporated into pre-existing GIS-based hydrological models to improve the rainfall inputs into these models. Multivariate logistic regression analysis will also be employed to predict which areas will receive no rain versus some rain, and low rainfall rates versus high rainfall rates. This research will contribute to improving rainfall forecasting, both through the quantification of tropical cyclone rain fields and the improved ability to identify the location of flood-producing rainfall. An integral component of this project is an effort to educate a new generation of researchers in advanced spatial analysis techniques. These efforts will contribute to cultivating innovative perspectives and fostering further improvement of rain forecasts for tropical cyclones that reach land. These outcomes will be achieved through an educational program that emphasizes GIS-based analysis of meteorological and climatological data. Both graduate and undergraduate students will receive enhanced training in GIS-based atmospheric data analysis and two newly designed courses will allow an undergraduate minor in meteorology to be developed. Students, both funded and non-funded, will undertake individual research projects related to the spatial analysis of weather events, interact with a series of topically relevant special guest lecturers from outside the university, and travel to professional meetings and workshops featuring GIS or weather-related research. Mentoring activities are expected to increase the number of minority students selecting science-based careers.

热带气旋登陆时，大气层和地球表面都会改变其结构。这些结构变化影响了风暴产生的降雨的总体空间格局，从而控制了可能发生的洪水的规模和时间。虽然热带气旋模型已纳入风切变和地形等地球物理变量，以改善对降雨总量的预测，但仍然缺乏准确描绘降雨地理分布的能力。该项目解决了改善热带气旋雨场空间模拟的迫切需要。在地理信息系统中采用的形状分析技术将量化热带气旋降雨区的范围和位置，包括雷达反射率返回所确定的暴雨区。然后，通过将观测到的模式与模型生成的风暴数据进行比较，将这些区域与影响风暴结构的关键地球物理变量联系起来。通过这个职业奖支持的研究将开发一套指标来描述热带气旋雨场经常类似的形状，以确定负责创建这些形状的过程，并将导出统计模型来预测这些形状。通过在GIS中对雨场形状进行建模，这些形状可以潜在地被纳入到现有的基于GIS的水文模型中，以改善这些模型的降雨输入。还将采用多变量逻辑回归分析来预测哪些地区不会下雨，哪些地区会下雨，以及哪些地区降雨率低，哪些地区降雨率高。这项研究将有助于通过量化热带气旋雨场和提高确定造成洪水的降雨地点的能力，改进降雨预报。该项目的一个组成部分是努力教育新一代的研究人员在先进的空间分析技术。 这些努力将有助于培养创新的观点，并促进进一步改善对登陆热带气旋的降雨预报。 这些成果将通过一个强调基于地理信息系统的气象和气候数据分析的教育方案来实现。研究生和本科生都将接受以地理信息系统为基础的大气数据分析方面的强化培训，两门新设计的课程将使本科生能够辅修气象学。学生，无论是资助和非资助，将承担与天气事件的空间分析相关的个人研究项目，与一系列专题相关的特别客座讲师从大学以外的互动，并前往专业会议和研讨会具有GIS或天气相关的研究。预计辅导活动将增加选择科学职业的少数民族学生的人数。