Doctoral Dissertation Research: Shocks, Trauma, Behavioral Parameters and Subjective Expectations: The Effects of Abduction and Violence on Economic Behavior in Northern Uganda

博士论文研究：冲击、创伤、行为参数和主观预期：绑架和暴力对乌干达北部经济行为的影响

• 批准号: 1061723
• 负责人: Christopher Barrett
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2013-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1061723&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Shocks; Trauma

As the 2011 World Development Report notes one in four individuals live either in fragile and conflict-affected countries or in ones with very high levels of criminal violence. Moreover, not a single Millennium Development Goal (MDG) has been achieved by a low income fragile or conflict-affected country. Despite the wide ranging influence of conflict and its importance to country and individual-level development outcomes, economics has a limited understand of its long run consequences. Economics almost exclusively focuses on tangible consequences, such as assets loss or nutritional and educational attainment. In doing so, economics ignores the possibility that the severity of a shock is not only reflected in its destruction but also in its traumatic nature. In contrast to this view, an extensive mental health literature finds that traumatic experiences can lead to behavioral changes that persist across decades. These changes may explain, for instance, why households with identical losses can have heterogeneous responses after shocks, or why shocks may lead to changed behavior despite no visible changes to constraints or opportunities.This project investigates the lasting effects of traumatic experiences on post-conflict behavior and outcomes in Northern Uganda. The research re-interviews an ex ante representative sample of young men, many of whom were abducted by rebels forces and experienced violence. In particular, we focus on two main pathways: economic behavioral parameters, such as risk aversion, time preferences and trust, and the subjective probabilities of future events. For instance, mental health studies of war-affected children report behavioral changes that are consistent with shifts in the economic behavioral parameters (risk aversion, time preferences, and trust) that are believed to explain much of the heterogeneity of economic outcomes. Consequently, the project will use recent innovations in field experiments to elicit estimates of these behavioral parameters and examine their impact on corresponding economic outcomes. In doing so, we add to the handful of recent economics studies that challenge the traditional view in economics that behavioral parameters are fixed and therefore are not affected by shocks. The findings from these new studies are ambiguous, finding changes in behavior but unclear impacts of economic outcomes. This project will both confirm the impact of trauma on behavioral parameters and examine whether the prior contradictory findings regarding the effects on economic outcomes were due the setting of the studies or the choice of outcomes.Although the mental health and economics literature differ on why behavior may change after shocks, the ultimate changes should be reflected in the subjective probabilities of future uncertain events. Only one study in economics has studied the impact of traumatic events on both behavior and subjective probabilities. Whereas the previous study only looked at shocks related to the traumatic event, by eliciting subjective probabilities on a wide range of shocks, we will be able to see whether traumatic experiences affect the subjective probabilities of both traumatic and non-traumatic events. This possibility is an alternative explanation for such findings in prior research on selective changes in behavior following exposure to violence.Several new avenues of research are opened by moving beyond traditional models of shocks in economics. In particular, post-conflict as well as other post-shock interventions may need to be reconsidered as individuals may have varying abilities to take advantage of them. For instance, cash transfers may be less useful when the most affected have altered time preferences or risk aversion parameters. Similarly, income levels and assets may no longer fully capture vulnerability in post-conflict areas. To conclude, the proposed research addresses an important gap in our understanding of the effects of shocks on behavior: what are the effects of traumatic experiences on behavioral parameters, economic outcomes and subjective probabilities? The project answers this by examining the ongoing effects of child abductions and exposure to violence among young men in Northern Uganda. In addition to helping to connect the mental health and economics literatures, the project contributes to economics, policy and the individuals for whom trauma persists.

正如《2011年世界发展报告》指出的那样，每四个人中就有一个生活在脆弱和受冲突影响的国家，或者生活在犯罪暴力非常严重的国家。此外，没有一个低收入、脆弱或受冲突影响的国家实现了千年发展目标。尽管冲突的影响范围广泛，对国家和个人的发展成果也很重要，但经济学对其长期后果的理解有限。经济学几乎只关注有形的后果，如资产损失或营养和教育程度。在这样做的时候，经济学忽略了一种可能性，即冲击的严重性不仅反映在其破坏性上，而且还反映在其创伤性上。与这种观点相反，大量的心理健康文献发现，创伤经历可能导致持续数十年的行为变化。这些变化可以解释，例如，为什么有相同损失的家庭可以有不同的反应后冲击，或为什么冲击可能会导致改变行为，尽管没有明显的变化，限制或opportunity.This项目调查创伤经历冲突后的行为和结果的持久影响在北方乌干达。这项研究重新采访了一批有代表性的青年男子，其中许多人被反叛部队绑架并经历了暴力。特别是，我们专注于两个主要途径：经济行为参数，如风险规避，时间偏好和信任，以及未来事件的主观概率。例如，对受战争影响儿童的心理健康研究报告的行为变化与经济行为参数（风险规避、时间偏好和信任）的变化一致，这些参数被认为可以解释经济结果的大部分异质性。因此，该项目将使用最新的创新，在现场实验，以引出这些行为参数的估计，并检查其对相应的经济成果的影响。在这样做的过程中，我们增加了一些最近的经济学研究，这些研究挑战了经济学中的传统观点，即行为参数是固定的，因此不会受到冲击的影响。这些新研究的结果是模糊的，发现了行为的变化，但对经济结果的影响尚不清楚。本项目将确认创伤对行为参数的影响，并检验先前关于对经济结果的影响的矛盾结果是否是由于研究的设置或结果的选择。尽管心理健康和经济学文献在冲击后行为可能发生变化的原因上存在分歧，但最终的变化应该反映在未来不确定事件的主观概率上。只有一项经济学研究研究了创伤性事件对行为和主观概率的影响。鉴于之前的研究只关注与创伤事件相关的冲击，通过引发各种冲击的主观概率，我们将能够看到创伤经历是否会影响创伤和非创伤事件的主观概率。这种可能性是对先前关于暴露于暴力后行为的选择性变化的研究结果的另一种解释，通过超越经济学中传统的冲击模型，开辟了几条新的研究途径。特别是，可能需要重新考虑冲突后以及其他冲击后干预措施，因为个人利用这些措施的能力可能各不相同。例如，当受影响最大的人改变了时间偏好或风险规避参数时，现金转移可能就不那么有用了。同样，收入水平和资产可能不再完全反映冲突后地区的脆弱性。总之，拟议的研究解决了我们对冲击对行为影响的理解中的一个重要空白：创伤经历对行为参数、经济结果和主观概率的影响是什么？该项目通过审查乌干达北方青年男子中儿童被绑架和遭受暴力的持续影响来回答这一问题。除了帮助连接心理健康和经济学文献，该项目有助于经济学，政策和创伤持续存在的个人。