Supporting Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO)

马登-朱利安振荡的动力学(发电机)野外活动是2011年底/2012年初在印度洋进行的一项国际实验--印度洋季节内变率合作实验(CINDY2011)的美国组成部分。迪纳摩的首要目标是加快对印度洋上启动MJO的关键过程的了解，并改进对MJO的模拟和预测。现场活动将包括多个雷达、大气探测点、一架考察机、多艘考察船和海洋测量。迪纳摩的三个主要假设是：1)只有当湿层在MJO尺度的区域变得足够深时，才能将深层对流组织成MJO对流包层；这种增湿发生的速度决定了预增湿状态的持续时间，2)不同阶段的特定对流种群对MJO的启动至关重要，3)障碍层、风和切变驱动的混合、浅层温跃层和混合层夹带都通过控制上层海洋热含量和SST，从而控制表面通量反馈，在印度洋MJO启动中发挥关键作用。首席科学家的作用主要包括确保大型、多机构、国际实地运动取得成功所需的组织和协调活动。要支持的活动分为部署前、部署和部署后阶段。在部署前阶段(2011年10月之前)，主要任务是帮助完成迪纳摩实地宣传活动的准备工作，并与2011年CINDY年的国际合作伙伴协调，最终确定试验设计和实地责任。在部署阶段(2011年10月至2012年3月)，首席科学家将参加实地行动，监测该行动区域的大范围情况，加入一个咨询小组，帮助作出雷达和飞机行动的决策，并为欧洲中期天气预报中心的预报和分析提供实时评估。与ECMWF的工作是首席科学家建立的合作的一部分，在该合作中，ECMWF将为迪纳摩提供其高分辨率天气预报和分析产品，首席科学家将(通过这项提议)支持一名博士后，该博士后将对ECMWF进行长期访问，以研究在迪纳摩收集的数据对中期预报的影响程度。在部署后阶段，首席科学家将监督迪纳摩数据政策的实施，组织迪纳摩数据和建模研讨会，在国内和国际会议上提议和召开迪纳摩特别会议，总结和出版现场数据分析所需的材料，包括与迪纳摩有关的气候背景，在此开展的工作将产生更广泛的科学影响，确保成功地收集并尽可能广泛地传播实地观测结果。这项工作还通过发展美国和国际科学家之间的联系产生了更广泛的科学影响。此外，首席科学家将监督一项努力，通过旅行研究金方案将研究生带到实地，希望参加活动的学生申请旅行支助，那些被选中的人接受培训，并被指派主要使用雷达和无线电探空气球协助收集实地数据。该项目还将支持一名研究生和一名博士后。最后，这项工作支持了迪纳摩改进MJO预报的目标，考虑到MJO对全球天气模式的影响，改进的MJO预报将具有巨大的社会价值。

AbstractThe Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign is the US component of an international experiment in late 2011/early 2012 in the Indian Ocean, the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability (CINDY2011). The overarching goal of DYNAMO is to expedite understanding of processes key to MJO initiation over the Indian Ocean and to improve simulation and prediction of the MJO. The field campaign will include multiple radars, atmospheric sounding sites, a research aircraft, multiple research vessels, and oceanic measurements.The three main hypotheses of DYNAMO are: 1) Deep convection can be organized into an MJO convective envelope only when the moist layer has become sufficiently deep over a region of the MJO scale; the pace at which this moistening occurs determines the duration of the pre-onset state, 2) Specific convective populations at different stages are essential to MJO initiation, and 3) The barrier layer, wind- and shear-driven mixing, shallow thermocline, and mixing-layer entrainment all play essential roles in MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean by controlling the upper-ocean heat content and SST, and thereby surface flux feedbackThis award funds the activities of the Chief Scientist of the DYNAMO field campaign. The role of Chief Scientist consists largely of the organization and coordination activities required to guarantee the success of a large, multi-agency, international field campaign. Activities to be supported are divided into pre-deployment, deployment, and post-deployment phases. In the pre-deployment phase (prior to October 2011), the main tasks are to help complete the preparation for the DYNAMO field campaign and coordinate with international partners of CINDY2011 to finalize the experimental design and field responsibilities. Duties include overseeing the development of a field operations plan; organizing forecast and monitoring activities for the campaign; documenting the climatology of the Indian Ocean region, particularly using new satellite datasets; and coordinating international activities and data access rules.During the deployment phase (October 2011 to March 2012), the Chief Scientist will participate in the field campaign by monitoring large-scale conditions in the region of the campaign, joining an advisory team to help make decisions on radar and aircraft operations, and providing the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with real-time evaluation for its forecast and analysis. The work with ECMWF is part of a collaboration the Chief Scientist has established in which ECMWF will provide its high-resolution weather forecast and analysis products for DYNAMO, and the Chief Scientist will (though this proposal) support a postdoc who will make an extended visit to ECMWF to conduct research on the extent to which data collected in DYNAMO has an impact on medium-range forecasts.In the post-deployment phase, the Chief Scientist will oversee the implementation of the DYNAMO data policy, organize DYNAMO data and modeling workshops, propose and convene DYNAMO special sessions at national and international conferences, summarize and publish materials necessary for post-field data analysis, including climate background relevant to DYNAMO, large-scale conditions during the field campaign, and general descriptions of DYNAMO.The work performed here will have broader scientific impacts by ensuring that the field observations will be collected successfully and disseminated as broadly as possible. The work also has broader scientific impacts through the development of links between US and international scientists. In addition, the Chief Scientist will oversee an effort to bring graduate students to the field through a travel fellowship program, in which students wishing to participate in the campaign apply for travel support, and those selected receive training and are assigned to assist in collecting field data, primarily using radars and radiosonde balloons. The project will also support a graduate student and a postdoc. Finally, the work supports the DYNAMO goal of improving predictions of the MJO, and improved MJO forecasts would have great societal value given the MJO's impact on weather patterns around the globe.