Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Party Instability and Democratic Elections

政治学博士论文研究：政党不稳定和民主选举政党组织的变化和变化对民主选举和民主表现意味着什么？该项目评估选民在以政党组织不稳定为特征的选举中能够在多大程度上识别选举信息并做出合理的决定。2002年拉脱维亚议会选举说明了该项目核心问题的重要性。那一年的选票上出现了几个新的政党和政党联盟：在竞选活动开始前不久成立的社会保守派拉脱维亚的第一党；绿党和农民联盟，它合并了两个现有的政党，政策计划只有部分一致；以及著名的国家和谐党和两个明显更保守的亲俄政党的三党合并。除了这些新的政党组成，现有的两个政党竞争连任，每个政党都由一名新的党主席领导。在这次选举中，一个消息灵通的选民需要了解这个全新政党的政策立场，调和两个政党合并后的每个政党内部的意识形态不一致，并理解领导层的更迭对两个先前存在的政党的政策目标和能力意味着什么。该项目建立并分析了政党组织不稳定的原始数据集，以审查这种不稳定对中东欧新民主国家以及西欧已建立的民主国家的政治代表性和问责制的后果。这项研究的学术价值在于它有助于增进我们对选举信息处理和更广泛的民主治理的了解。在现有政治心理学研究的基础上，该项目开发了关于政党线索对选民有用的条件的理论预期。它还有助于理解民主代表制和选举问责制的进程，这两者对于任何遵守代议制民主原则的选举的运作都是不可或缺的。此外，该项目将产生一个关于不同政治体系中政党不稳定的数据集。该数据集将使其他学者能够调查政党不稳定的原因和后果。这项研究还将做出几个更广泛的贡献。它将阐明政党稳定对民主实践的重要性。如果政党的不稳定确实对民主选举的运作构成威胁，那么政策制定者、非政府组织和公民联盟最好将他们的注意力和资源转移到政党组织的稳定上来。这项研究的结果不仅与政党不成熟的新民主政体有关，而且与政党在过去40年中不稳定的长期民主政体也有关联。此外，本项目产生的关于政党不稳定的数据集将与政府机构和非政府组织有关，这些机构和非政府组织对政党不稳定对腐败、经济表现和良好治理的影响感兴趣。

Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Party Instability and Democratic ElectionsWhat do change and flux in political party organizations imply for democratic elections and democratic performance? This project assesses the extent to which voters can discern electoral information and make reasoned decisions in elections characterized by instability in party organizations. The significance of the project's central question is illustrated by the 2002 parliamentary election in Latvia. Several new parties and party coalitions appeared on the ballot that year: the socially conservative Latvia's First Party, which formed shortly before the election campaign began; the Union of Greens and Farmers, which merged two existing parties with only partially consistent policy programs; and a three-party merger of the prominent National Harmony Party and two markedly more conservative pro-Russian parties. In addition to these new party formations, two existing parties competed for reelection, each headed by a new party chairman. An informed voter in this election would have needed to learn the policy positions of the brand new party, reconcile the ideological inconsistencies within each of the two party mergers, and make sense of what the leadership changes meant for the policy goals and competences of the two preexisting parties. This project constructs and analyzes an original dataset on instability in party organizations in order to examine the consequences of such instability for political representation and accountability in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe as well as the established democracies of Western Europe.The intellectual merit of the research lies in its contribution to enhancing our understanding of electoral information processing and of democratic governance more generally. Building on extant research in political psychology, the project develops theoretical expectations about the conditions under which party cues are useful to voters. It also contributes to understanding of the processes of democratic representation and electoral accountability, both of which are indispensable for the functioning of any election that adheres to the tenets of representative democracy. Moreover, the project will yield a dataset on party instability in a diverse set of political systems. The dataset will enable other scholars to investigate the causes and consequences of party instability.The study will also make several broader contributions. It will shed light on the importance of party stability for the practice of democracy. If indeed party instability poses a threat to the functioning of democratic elections, then policy makers, nongovernmental organizations, and citizen coalitions would be well advised to turn their attention and resources to the stabilization of party organizations. The findings of this research are relevant not only for new democracies, where political parties are not well-established, but also, and increasingly so, for the long-standing democracies where parties have destabilized over the past four decades. Furthermore, the dataset on party instability produced in this project will be relevant to government agencies and nongovernmental organizations interested in the impact of party instability on corruption, economic performance, and good governance.