Origin of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Response to 11-Year Solar Forcing: Possible Feedbacks from the Coupled Troposphere-Ocean Response

该项目研究伴随太阳黑子和地球接收的太阳辐射（主要是紫外线）的11年周期的平流层下层臭氧和温度的变化，其中臭氧值较高与太阳辐射较大有关。 这项研究检验了一个假设，即平流层对11年太阳强迫的反应受到热带空气-海洋相互作用的影响，因为日照增加导致海面蒸发增加，这反过来又产生一种降水模式，产生一种延伸到平流层的大气流动反应。 将通过全大气共同体气候模式的模拟来检验这一假设，该模式将解析大气的上层，并显示决定平流层臭氧浓度的光化学反应。 在这个模式中，海气相互作用的影响可以通过模拟来确定，在模拟中，海洋表面温度要么是固定的，要么允许与上覆大气相互作用。 还将对模拟和相应的观测进行统计分析，以进一步审查拟议的机制对现实世界平流层变化的相关性，这项工作将通过对一名研究生的支持和培训产生更广泛的影响，这将培养这一科学领域的科学工作者。 此外，更好地了解太阳变异性对气候的影响，可能有助于关注气候变异性和气候变化实际影响的决策者。

This project examines the variations in lower stratospheric ozone and temperature that accompany the 11-year cycle in sunspots and solar (mostly ultraviolet) radiation received by the earth, in which higher ozone values are associated with greater solar radiation. The research tests the hypothesis that the stratospheric response to 11-year solar forcing is influenced by tropical air-sea interactions, as increased insolation leads to enhanced sea surface evaporation, which in turn produces a precipitation pattern that generates an atmospheric flow response extending into the stratosphere. The hypothesis will be tested through simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), in which the upper levels of the atmosphere are resolved and the photochemical reactions that determine stratospheric ozone concentration are represented. In this model, the influence of air-sea interactions can be determined through simulations in which ocean surface temperatures are either fixed or allowed to interact with the overlying atmosphere. Statistical analysis of both simulations and corresponding observations will also be performed to further examine the relevance of the proposed mechanism for real-world stratospheric variability.The work will have broader impacts through the support and training of a graduate student, which will develop the scientific workforce in this scientific area. In addition, a better understanding of the impact of solar variability on climate may prove useful for decision makers concerned with the practical implications of climate variability and climate change.