Stratospheric Dynamical Effects of Solar Ultraviolet Variations

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ABSTRACT Solar variability is one possible source of climate change. The objective here is to obtain an improved observational and theoretical understanding of the dynamical effects of short-term solar ultraviolet variations in the upper stratosphere. Detailed cross-spectral studies of zonal mean temperatures, winds, and derived circulation statistics versus the measured solar flux near 200 nm will be conducted to determine the existence and statistical significance of dynamical changes in the stratosphere produced by solar UV variations. Special attention will be given to the possibility that solar UV variations may force or excite traveling planetary-scale waves with preferred periods near 27 days in the upper stratosphere (1-3 mbar). Interference between short-term solar UV-driven transient waves and stationary waves forced from below may be capable of affecting the initiation of stratospheric warmings in the northern hemisphere winter with consequent effects on the interannual climatology of the middle atmosphere. ***