Role of the Stratosphere in 11-Yr Solar Forcing of Surface Climate: Diagnostic Comparisons of Observations With Model Simulations

平流层在 11 年太阳强迫地表气候中的作用：观测与模型模拟的诊断比较

• 批准号: 1251092
• 负责人: Lon Hood
• 金额: $ 22.99万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-01 至 2015-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1251092&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Role; Stratosphere; 11; Yr; Solar

This project considers the response of lower stratospheric and surface climate to the changes in insolation accompanying the 11-year sunspot cycle. Insolation changes are hypothesized to affect stratospheric temperature as increases in solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation cause increases in stratospheric ozone which in turn lead to increases in stratospheric temperature (maximizing over the tropics) and midlatitude zonal winds. The increased stratospheric zonal winds then affect circulation at lower levels through the wave-mean flow interactions associated with the "downward control" mechanism, producing a pattern of sea level pressure anomalies including low pressure over the poles and high pressure over the northern North Pacific. Work conducted under this award would examine this "top down" mechanism for the influence of solar variability on surface climate in simulations from two climate models, one in which the solar-induced ozone anomalies are specified from satellite observations, and another (the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, or WACCM) in which the ozone changes are generated internally by the model in response to the insolation change. In the WACCM simulations, the insolation change will be prescribed according to several estimates of its spectral distribution, to determine the sensitivity of the response to uncertainty in the UV component of the 11-year solar forcing. WACCM simulations will also be used explore the sensitivity of the response to additional factors including the phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.The work will have broader impacts through the support and training of a graduate student, which will develop the scientific workforce in this scientific area. In addition, a better understanding of the impact of solar variability on climate may prove useful for understanding the sensitivity of climate to external forcing, and the mechanisms which determine the climatic response. Such information may benefit decision makers engaged in policy decisions regarding climate change.

该项目认为，平流层和表面气候对11年黑子周期伴随的日期变化的反应。 假设，随着太阳能紫外线（UV）辐射的增加导致平流层臭氧的增加会影响平流层温度，这又导致平流层温度的升高（在热带地区最大化）和中纬度区域风。 然后，增加的平流层纬向风通过与“向下控制”机制相关的波平均流相互作用影响较低水平的循环，从而产生了海平面压力异常的模式，包括低压和北太平洋北部的高压。 根据该奖项进行的工作将检查这种“自上而下”的机制，用于在两个气候模型的模拟中太阳可变性对表面气候的影响，其中一种是从卫星观察结果中指定太阳能诱导的臭氧异常，而另一个（整个大气层社区气候模型，或WACCM）在该模型中生成了该模型的响应，该模型会在该模型中生成量变化。 在WACCM模拟中，将根据其光谱分布的几个估计来开处方，以确定11年太阳能强迫紫外线分量的不确定性响应的敏感性。 WACCM模拟还将探讨对其他因素的反应的敏感性，包括平流层准生物 - 双年生振荡的阶段。通过支持和培训研究生，这项工作将产生更大的影响，这将发展该科学领域的科学劳动力。此外，更好地理解太阳可变性对气候的影响可能被证明对理解气候对外部强迫的敏感性以及决定气候反应的机制有用。 这些信息可能使从事气候变化的政策决策的决策者受益。