Protective Action Triggers

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The goal of this research is to improve our understanding of the factors and thresholds that lead emergency managers to recommend protective actions to the public in the face of an environmental threat. Three key questions need to be addressed in this context: 1) who should take action, 2) what is the best action, and 3) when should this action occur? As straightforward as these questions may seem, the stakes can be extremely high and they are frequently addressed under time pressure and uncertainty. The focus of this project is "trigger points" (or triggers), a novel decision aid used by emergency managers to combine an event (e.g. time, place, condition) with a recommended protective action (e.g. evacuate, shelter-in-place, refuge shelter) for a threatened sub-population, such that the action is recommended if the event occurs. Triggers therefore provide a valuable framework for addressing the three questions noted above, and their analysis represents a potential leap in improving our understanding of emergency warnings. The objectives of this research are to: 1) extend current theory on protective actions to include triggers; 2) identify the factors that determine how a trigger is set in space and time, the relative importance of the factors, and the decision rule(s) used to combine the factors; and 3) develop and test cognitive and physical models of how triggers are set and detected. The research is based on a three-step experimental design comprised of: 1) interviews and observation to elicit knowledge about the types, nature, and efficacy of triggers, 2) experiments with a web-based wildfire scenario simulator to ascertain relevant factors in setting triggers and their respective importance to decision makers, and 3) a comparative study between triggers set by experts and ones derived through physical modeling.The results of this project will advance our knowledge regarding a critical yet under-researched decision aid in protective-action decision making. The project will strengthen ties between the disaster research and management communities, and the results will be disseminated to practitioners through presentations, workshops and trade journals with the goal of improving protective-action training and ultimately public safety. This project will also enhance graduate and undergraduate educational infrastructure at the University of Utah while strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration at the Center for Natural and Technological Hazards. In addition, undergraduate educational modules will be developed using the wildfire simulator for classes in Emergency Management, Naturalistic Decision Making, and Fire Human-Environment Interactions. Finally, all software and data from this project will be made available to the disaster research community via a project website.