Protective Action Decision Making in Wildfires

面对许多威胁，应急管理人员建议采取保护性行动，将生命和财产损失降至最低，并最大限度地利用有限的资源。在野火的背景下，两个常见的建议是疏散或庇护那些处于危险之中的人。鉴于这两种选择，就会产生这样的问题，即在特定情况下哪种保护行动是最好的，以及应该在什么时候发布。这个项目将考察：1)在确定在给定的野火中哪种保护行动是最好的重要因素，2)决策者用来结合这些因素的策略，以及3)不确定性对决策过程的影响。这项研究基于三步实验方法，依靠访谈、静态信息板和交互式野火模拟器，从野火管理方面的专家和新手决策者那里获取知识。建立和检验决策过程的因果模型，包括相关因素及其重要性、它们的组合方法和不确定性的影响，研究结果将促进保护行动决策理论的发展，为提高突发事件决策质量提供依据。

Emergency managers recommend protective actions in the face of many threats to minimize loss of life and property and to maximize use of limited resources. In the context of wildfire, two common recommendations are to evacuate or shelter those at risk. Given these two options, questions arise as to which protective-action is best in a given scenario and when it should be issued. This project will examine: 1) the factors that are important in determining which protective action is best in a given wildfire, 2) the strategies that decision makers use to combine the factors, and 3) the effect of uncertainty on the decision making process. The research is based on a three-step experimental approach that relies on interviews, static information boards, and an interactive wildfire simulator to elicit knowledge from both expert and novice decision makers in wildfire management. Causal models of the decision making process will be developed and tested that include the relevant factors and their importance, the method by which they are combined, and the effect of uncertainty.The results of this research will advance protective-action decision theory and provide a basis for improving the quality of decision-making in emergencies.