Protective Action Decision Making in Wildfires

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Emergency managers recommend protective actions in the face of many threats to minimize loss of life and property and to maximize use of limited resources. In the context of wildfire, two common recommendations are to evacuate or shelter those at risk. Given these two options, questions arise as to which protective-action is best in a given scenario and when it should be issued. This project will examine: 1) the factors that are important in determining which protective action is best in a given wildfire, 2) the strategies that decision makers use to combine the factors, and 3) the effect of uncertainty on the decision making process. The research is based on a three-step experimental approach that relies on interviews, static information boards, and an interactive wildfire simulator to elicit knowledge from both expert and novice decision makers in wildfire management. Causal models of the decision making process will be developed and tested that include the relevant factors and their importance, the method by which they are combined, and the effect of uncertainty.The results of this research will advance protective-action decision theory and provide a basis for improving the quality of decision-making in emergencies.