Fiscal consolidation in times of financial stress: theory and evidence

金融压力时期的财政整顿：理论与证据

• 批准号: 201519901
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Gernot Müller
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of International Macroeconomics and Finance
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2011-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/201519901?language=en
• 关键词: Fiscal; consolidation; times; financial; stress

We investigate how fiscal consolidation affects economic activity in times of financial stress. Measures of fiscal consolidation include the reduction of government spending and transfer payments as well as tax increases. Such measures are currently enacted in many OECD countries and further measures are likely to be observed in coming years as governments attempt to reign in public debt. The notion of times of financial stress is meant to capture a situation where 1) borrowing costs of governments and/or private agents are high because of increased default risk and 2) the conduct of monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound on policy rates. While standard models and most empirical studies suggest that fiscal consolidation is detrimental to economic activity in normal times, i.e. in a situation where borrowing costs are low and monetary policy is unconstrained, the consequences of consolidation in times of financial stress are less well understood. We therefore assess, both theoretically and empirically, the hypothesis that the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of financial stress differ from its consequences in normal times. In order to do so, we develop tools which allow us to account for state dependence of the effects of fiscal policy measures. In terms of specific objectives we aim at developing a model of the fiscal transmission mechanism which also features the possibility of sovereign default, establishing robust time-series evidence on the effects of consolidations measures in times of financial stress, and, eventually, exploring the role of credibility for the success of consolidations.

我们研究财政整顿如何在金融压力时期影响经济活动。财政整顿措施包括减少政府支出和转移支付以及增加税收。这类措施目前在许多经合组织国家实施，随着各国政府试图控制公共债务，未来几年可能会采取进一步措施。金融压力时期的概念旨在捕捉这样一种情况：1)由于违约风险增加，政府和/或私人代理的借贷成本很高；2)货币政策的实施受到政策利率下限为零的约束。虽然标准模型和大多数实证研究表明，在正常时期，即在借贷成本低、货币政策不受约束的情况下，财政整顿对经济活动是有害的，但在金融压力时期，财政整顿的后果却鲜为人知。因此，我们从理论上和经验上评估了在金融压力时期财政整顿的后果不同于正常时期的假设。为了做到这一点，我们开发了一些工具，使我们能够解释财政政策措施效果对国家的依赖。就具体目标而言，我们的目标是开发一个财政传导机制模型，该模型也具有主权违约的可能性，在金融压力时期建立关于整合措施影响的可靠时间序列证据，并最终探索可信度对整合成功的作用。