CNH: Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in the Evaluation of Social-Ecological Resilience: Theoretical Debates Over Infrastructure Impacts on Livelihoods and Forest Change

CNH：社会生态复原力评估中的全球敏感性和不确定性分析：关于基础设施对生计和森林变化影响的理论争论

• 批准号: 1114924
• 负责人: Stephen Perz
• 金额: $ 143.5万
• 依托单位: University of Florida
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1114924&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Global; Sensitivity; Uncertainty; Analysis

New road infrastructure leads to numerous changes in affected regions, including economic integration, environmental degradation, and conflicts over natural resources. This project will apply a systems approach that features resilience as an integrative concept to bring together economic, ecological and social science perspectives to better understand infrastructure impacts. To evaluate system resilience to infrastructure, this project will use global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify the probability that a key indicator of system state will go past a critical threshold, i.e., a tipping point, indicating loss of resilience via a change in system state. The study system for this work is the frontier of the southwestern Amazon, a highly biodiverse region in which highway paving is underway. The project will focus on two key issues that have been debated by scholars who study infrastructure impacts: changes in land tenure and livelihoods. The research will draw from different theoretical perspectives on these issues to model specific changes in land ownership, use, and livelihoods, which in turn affect two key indicators of system state: forest cover and forest value. Dynamic simulation models will be developed to compare model output for forest cover and forest value as they depend on different assumptions about how highway paving affects tenure and livelihoods. Simulation models will be integrated with sensitivity analysis to assess model uncertainty in predicting changes in forest cover and forest value, and to assess system resilience to highway paving.This project will strengthen collaborative ties between University of Florida and partner institutions in Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru, and build tri-national capacity for social-ecological research in the Amazon. Graduate students and postdoctoral scholars will be trained and gain experience in collaborative, interdisciplinary and international team research. The study region has local governments and other stakeholders with needs for greater access to scientific findings regarding infrastructure. This project will disseminate research results using an innovative knowledge exchange model designed to reach hundreds of stakeholders. Such outreach and dialogue will support broader public participation in environmental planning by regional governments. The modeling approach developed in this project will also contribute to understanding for other problems such as climate change and global market shifts.

新的道路基础设施给受影响地区带来了许多变化，包括经济一体化、环境退化和争夺自然资源的冲突。该项目将采用系统方法，将弹性作为一个综合概念，将经济、生态和社会科学的观点结合起来，更好地理解基础设施的影响。为了评估系统对基础设施的弹性，本项目将使用全局敏感性和不确定性分析来量化系统状态的关键指标将超过关键阈值的概率，即临界点，表明通过系统状态的变化失去弹性。这项工作的研究系统是亚马逊西南部的前沿，这是一个高度生物多样性的地区，正在进行公路铺设。该项目将重点关注研究基础设施影响的学者一直在争论的两个关键问题：土地使用权和生计的变化。研究将从这些问题的不同理论角度出发，模拟土地所有权、利用和生计的具体变化，这些变化反过来影响系统状态的两个关键指标：森林覆盖和森林价值。将开发动态模拟模型，以比较森林覆盖和森林价值的模型输出，因为它们取决于关于公路铺设如何影响权利人和生计的不同假设。模拟模型将与敏感性分析相结合，以评估预测森林覆盖和森林价值变化的模型不确定性，并评估系统对公路铺设的恢复能力。该项目将加强佛罗里达大学与玻利维亚、巴西和秘鲁的合作机构之间的合作关系，并为亚马逊地区的社会生态研究建立三国能力。研究生和博士后将获得合作、跨学科和国际团队研究的经验。研究区域有地方政府和其他利益相关者，他们需要更多地获得有关基础设施的科学发现。该项目将利用创新的知识交流模式传播研究成果，旨在惠及数百名利益相关者。这种外联和对话将支持公众更广泛地参与地方政府的环境规划。本项目开发的建模方法也将有助于理解气候变化和全球市场变化等其他问题。