Collaborative Research: Modeling Infectious Diseases: How Much Ecological Complexity Must We Address?

不可否认，生态系统是复杂的。为了更有效地提高模型的预测准确性，评估适当的复杂性水平以充分理解它们的动态是必不可少的。通过该基金的资助，这项理论和实证研究将分析增加宿主-寄生虫模型复杂性的好处，以及增加复杂性在多大程度上提高了动态模型的预测准确性。来自加州大学圣巴巴拉分校和普林斯顿大学的研究小组将研究寄生虫在北美太平洋沿岸沿纬度梯度分布的16个河口系统的食物网中所起的作用。他们将对这些网络中发现的四种焦点寄生虫进行建模，并进行实验室和实地研究以参数化该模型。这些模型的版本将在生态复杂性方面有所不同，包括替代宿主，其他寄生虫，生命阶段的不同细节，非宿主和温度的直接和间接影响。这项研究具有创新性，当然值得资助。这项研究将促进对模型性能如何随着复杂性的增加而变化的理解，并调查解决生命阶段复杂性、替代宿主多样性和食物网复杂性所需的细节水平。研究模型性能如何随着复杂性的提高而提高，以及包括这种复杂性的成本，将有助于了解传染病模型所需的最适当的复杂性水平，以便最适当地进行预测。这个项目的广泛影响是非常强大的。这项研究将为如何最有效地模拟复杂系统中的传染病提供一个框架，并将解决寄生虫如何影响生态网络和周围的生物多样性。该项目将为博士后研究员、研究生和本科生提供培训和支持，包括来自代表性不足群体的个人。这项研究还将为K-12教师和学生提供优秀和非常适当的外展服务，并将通过与来自墨西哥、捷克共和国、阿根廷和澳大利亚的科学家和学生的互动，加强国际科学合作。

Ecology of Infectious Disease Special Competition - Spring 2011Ecological systems are undeniably complex. Evaluating the appropriate level of complexity needed to fully understand their dynamics is essential to more efficiently increase the predictive accuracy of models. With funding through this Grant, this theoretical and empirical research will analyze the benefits of added complexity in host-parasite models and the extent to which including complexity increases the predictive accuracy of dynamical models. The team from the University of California-Santa Barbara and Princeton University will examine the role played by parasites in food webs for 16 estuarine systems along a latitudinal gradient of the Pacific coast of North America. They will model four focal parasites found in these webs and perform laboratory and field studies to parameterize the model. Versions of these models will vary in aspects of ecological complexity, including alternative hosts, other parasites, varying detail about life stages, direct and indirect effects of non-hosts and temperature.The study is innovative and certainly worth of funding. The research will advance understanding of how model performance changes with added complexity and investigate the level of detail needed to address life-stage complexity, alternative host diversity and food web complexity. Examining how model performance improves with complexity and the cost of including that complexity will provide insight on the most appropriate level of complexity needed for infectious disease models to be most suitably predictive. The broader impacts of this project are very strong. The research from this study will provide a framework for how to most effectively model infectious diseases in complex systems and will address how parasites impact ecological networks and surrounding biodiversity. This project will make excellent provision for the training and support of a post-doctoral researcher, graduate students and undergraduates, including individuals from under-represented groups. This study will also feature excellent and very appropriate outreach to K-12 teachers and students and will enhance international scientific collaboration through interaction with scientists and students from Mexico, Czech Republic, Argentina and Australia.