Firm Size and the Business Cycle

该奖项资助对雇主规模和就业增长之间关系的商业周期动态的研究。不同规模和生产率企业的商业周期动态对于宏观经济学的基本问题是重要的。例如，实际工资如何对总体冲击作出反应，雇佣摩擦或信贷摩擦对企业增长的影响是否更大，以及小企业是否确实是“创造就业的引擎”，这些问题都取决于商业周期的这些动态效应。PI和他的团队已经证明，大公司的就业比小公司的就业更具周期性（在美国和其他发达国家都是如此）。他们开发了一个模型来解释这种依赖于周转摩擦的观察结果。这里授予的资金将用于扩展该模型，以包括一些额外的公司规模的重要决定因素。然后，该团队将使用人口普查局提供的受限使用商业纵向微数据来测试该模型。实证分析还将为原始实证发现提供额外的稳健性检查，将验证高薪公司（而不仅仅是大公司）是否有更多的周期性就业，并且还将使用商业周期指标作为改进对新公司进入的估计的方法。该项目将劳动经济学的见解引入宏观经济学中的重要问题。更广泛的影响是巨大的，特别是因为针对小企业的公共政策往往一开始就假设这些企业是创造就业机会的引擎。最后，一些研究生将接受培训，掌握在安全数据设施中处理敏感微数据的必要方法。

This award funds research on the business cycle dynamics of the relationship between employer size and job growth. The business cycle dynamics of firms of different sizes and productivities are important for fundamental issues in macroeconomics. For example, how real wages respond to aggregate shocks, whether hiring frictions or credit frictions have a larger impact on firm growth, and whether or not small businesses are indeed 'the engine of job creation' are all issues that depend on these dynamic effects of the business cycle.The PI and his team have already documented that employment in larger firms is more cyclical than employment in small firms (both in the U.S. and in other developed countries). They have developed a model that explains this observation that depends on turnover frictions. The funds awarded here will be used to expand this model to include a number of additional important determinants of firm size. The team will then test the model using restricted use business longitudinal microdata available through the Census Bureau. The empirical analysis will also provide additional robustness checks of the original empirical finding, will verify whether high paying firms (and not just larger firms) have more cyclical employment, and will also use business cycle indicators as a way to improve estimates of the entry of new firms.This project brings insights from labor economics to bear on important questions in macroeconomics. The broader impacts are substantial, especially because public policy on small business often starts with the assumption that these businesses are the engine of job creation. Finally, a number of graduate students will be trained in the methods necessary to work with sensitive microdata at a secure data facility.