Modeling Floodplain Dynamics: Can the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Keep Up with the 21st Century Sea Level Rise?

洪泛区动力学建模:恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲能否跟上 21 世纪海平面上升的步伐?

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1123880
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2011-09-15 至 2014-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Modeling Floodplain Dynamics: Can the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta keep up with 21st Century Sea Level Rise? Deltaic lowlands are vulnerable to sea-level rise, but whether the floodplains will ultimately drown depends on a balance of controls: sedimentation rate in the river and coastal floodplain under the influence of river floods and storm surges, subsidence of the land, and sea-level rise. We propose a computer modeling approach to get 0a grip on the effect of climatic forcing on river floodplain and coastal lowlands sedimentation rates. The Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin has been selected because its floodplain sedimentation rates are well studied. Reconstructions show that sedimentation was more than double 7000-4000 years ago when the Indian summer monsoonal rains were more intense. Recently, this dataset has been expanded to include sedimentation rates in the cyclone-affected parts of the tidal Ganges delta. There is still a huge gap between the level of sophistication of climate and atmospheric model output, and the ability of sedimentation models to take such output and model delta and coastal change. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) Modeling Tool now offers software coupling technology and we will use this new tool to link three existing models: a upstream river sediment production model, a floodplain sedimentation model and a tidal-plain coastal sedimentation model. The study aims at exploring the response of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river system to a future sea-level rise and increase in monsoonal intensity, flooding, and tropical cyclones that are currently predicted in Community Climate System Model scenarios. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river and delta system of Bangladesh has featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change studies as the prime example of drowning lowlands under a globally rising sea level in the 21st century. 147 million people live in the delta in India and Bangladesh; it is one of the poorest regions in the world. Ensemble climate model scenarios predict an 11% enhanced monsoon resulting in increased flooding of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. The models point to an enhanced monsoon intensity causing more cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. An average of 20% of Bangladesh is seasonally flooded under present-day conditions alone, and this area is projected to become increasingly larger. Sediment is trapped in the both the river floodplain and the coast due to flooding and storms. The interplay between rising sea level versus increased river and storm surge flooding and increased sediment accumulation has not been well studied. At 7000-4000 years ago the Ganges system experienced an analogous scenario with sea level rise rates of 0.5 cm/yr, which is similar to the high end of the predicted rate for the next century. At the same time, the monsoonal regime was enhanced and the river sediment fluxes were high. It is inferred from sediment cores that the two opposing forces balanced and a stable coastline was maintained. The ancient delta system withstood a 20-30 m sea level rise. The proposed study integrates current understanding of the Ganges-Brahmaputra System into a numerical modeling framework, and allows the exploration of different controls for the analogue of the past. Theoretical experiments will be used to illustrate the complex interplay of river and coastal dynamics to the general public through the open-access Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) Educational Resources. A CSDMS clinic in 2012 is planned for (under)graduate students to discuss transdisciplinary aspects of the vulnerability of deltas, and to run delta sedimentation model simulations hands-on. The lectures and modeling excercises will all be made available for teaching faculty worldwide.
模拟洪泛区动力学:恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲能跟上21世纪世纪海平面上升的步伐吗?三角洲低地容易受到海平面上升的影响,但洪泛平原最终是否会被淹没取决于控制因素的平衡:河流洪水和风暴潮影响下河流和沿海洪泛平原的沉积速率,土地沉降和海平面上升。我们提出了一个计算机模拟方法,以获得00的气候强迫对河流漫滩和沿海低地沉积速率的影响。之所以选择恒河-雅鲁藏布江流域,是因为其洪泛区沉积速率已得到充分研究。重建表明,沉积物是7000-4000年前的两倍多,当时印度夏季季风雨更强烈。最近,这一数据集已扩大到包括沉积速率的潮汐恒河三角洲的气旋影响的部分。 在气候和大气模型输出的复杂程度与沉积模型采用这种输出并模拟三角洲和海岸变化的能力之间仍然存在巨大差距。社区表面动力学建模系统(CSDMS)建模工具现在提供了软件耦合技术,我们将使用这个新的工具来连接三个现有的模型:上游河流泥沙生产模型,河漫滩沉积模型和潮汐平原海岸沉积模型。该研究旨在探讨恒河-雅鲁藏布江水系对未来海平面上升和季风强度增加、洪水和热带气旋的反应,这些都是目前在共同体气候系统模型情景中预测的。孟加拉国的恒河-雅鲁藏布江和三角洲系统在政府间气候变化专门委员会的研究中被列为世纪全球海平面上升淹没低地的主要例子。1.47亿人生活在印度和孟加拉国的三角洲,是世界上最贫穷的地区之一。包围气候模型预测,季风增强11%,导致恒河和雅鲁藏布江洪水增加。这些模型指出,季风强度的增强导致孟加拉湾出现更多的气旋。仅在目前的条件下,孟加拉国平均有20%的地区季节性地被洪水淹没,预计这一地区将变得越来越大。由于洪水和风暴,沉积物被困在河漫滩和海岸。海平面上升与河流和风暴潮洪水增加以及沉积物积累增加之间的相互作用尚未得到充分研究。在7000-4000年前,恒河系统经历了一个类似的情况,海平面上升率为0.5厘米/年,这与下一个世纪的预测率的高端相似。同时,季风强度增强,河流泥沙通量增加。从沉积物岩芯推断,这两种相反的力量平衡,维持了稳定的海岸线。古三角洲系统经受住了海平面上升20-30米的考验。拟议的研究将目前对恒河-雅鲁藏布江系统的理解整合到一个数值建模框架中,并允许探索对过去模拟的不同控制。理论实验将被用来说明河流和海岸动态的复杂的相互作用,通过开放获取的社区表面动力学建模系统(CSDMS)教育资源向公众。2012年CSDMS诊所计划(下)研究生讨论三角洲脆弱性的跨学科方面,并运行三角洲沉积模型模拟动手。讲座和建模练习都将提供给世界各地的教师。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}

Irina Overeem其他文献

Earth’s sediment cycle during the Anthropocene
人类世期间地球的沉积循环
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s43017-021-00253-w
  • 发表时间:
    2022-02-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    71.500
  • 作者:
    Jaia Syvitski;Juan Restrepo Ángel;Yoshiki Saito;Irina Overeem;Charles J. Vörösmarty;Houjie Wang;Daniel Olago
  • 通讯作者:
    Daniel Olago
Polar Bears: The Natural History of a Threatened Species
  • DOI:
    10.1657/1938-4246-45.3.424
  • 发表时间:
    2013-08
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Irina Overeem
  • 通讯作者:
    Irina Overeem
Warming-driven erosion and sediment transport in cold regions
寒冷地区气候变暖驱动的侵蚀和泥沙输送
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s43017-022-00362-0
  • 发表时间:
    2022-11-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    71.500
  • 作者:
    Ting Zhang;Dongfeng Li;Amy E. East;Desmond E. Walling;Stuart Lane;Irina Overeem;Achim A. Beylich;Michèle Koppes;Xixi Lu
  • 通讯作者:
    Xixi Lu
Investigating changes in proglacial stream suspended sediment concentration and their drivers using large scale remote sensing
利用大规模遥感技术调查冰川前河流悬移质浓度的变化及其驱动因素
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.geomorph.2025.109664
  • 发表时间:
    2025-04-15
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.300
  • 作者:
    Lily K. Vowels;William H. Armstrong;Irina Overeem;Daniel McGrath;Brianna Rick;Adrian Dye;Derek Martin
  • 通讯作者:
    Derek Martin
Quantifying sediment storage on the floodplains outside levees along the lower Yellow River during the years 1580–1849
量化 1580 年至 1849 年黄河下游堤外洪泛区沉积物储存量
  • DOI:
    10.1002/esp.4519
  • 发表时间:
    2018-10
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.3
  • 作者:
    Yunzhen Chen;Irina Overeem;Albert J. Kettner;Shu Gao;James P. M. Syvitski;Yuanjian Wang
  • 通讯作者:
    Yuanjian Wang

Irina Overeem的其他文献

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

{{ truncateString('Irina Overeem', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: RUI: Frontal Ablation Processes on Lake-terminating Glaciers and their Role in Glacier Change
合作研究:RUI:湖终止冰川的锋面消融过程及其在冰川变化中的作用
  • 批准号:
    2334776
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
RAPID: The effects of extreme drought on sediment transport and deposition in water-supply reservoirs
RAPID:极端干旱对供水水库泥沙输送和沉积的影响
  • 批准号:
    2203159
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Icy landscapes from the Brooks Range to the Beaufort Sea: Quantifying the mobilization, transport and deposition of sediment and carbon in Arctic Alaska
从布鲁克斯山脉到波弗特海的冰冷景观:量化阿拉斯加北极地区沉积物和碳的动员、运输和沉积
  • 批准号:
    2001225
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative research: Climate controls on carbon accumulation in upland permafrost at millennial scales
合作研究:千年尺度上气候对高地永久冻土碳积累的控制
  • 批准号:
    1844181
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Cybertraining: Pilot: Collaborative Research: Cybertraining for Earth Surface Processes Modelers
网络培训:试点:协作研究:地球表面过程建模者的网络培训
  • 批准号:
    1924259
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Multi-scale modeling and observations of landscape dynamics, mass balance, and network connectivity for a sustainable Ganges-Brahmaputra delta
沿海 SEES 合作研究:可持续恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲的景观动态、质量平衡和网络连通性的多尺度建模和观测
  • 批准号:
    1600287
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Towards a Tiered Permafrost Modeling Cyberinfrastructure
迈向分层永久冻土建模网络基础设施
  • 批准号:
    1503559
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Belmont Forum-G8 Collaborative Research: DELTAS: Catalyzing action towards sustainability of deltaic systems with an integrated modeling framework for risk assessment
贝尔蒙特论坛-G8 合作研究:三角洲:通过风险评估综合建模框架促进三角洲系统可持续性行动
  • 批准号:
    1342960
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
River Plumes as Indicators for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt
河流羽流作为格陵兰冰盖融化的指标
  • 批准号:
    0909349
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Modeling Sediment Delivery and Related Stratigraphy in a Tidal Dominated Delta: Fly River, Papua New Guinea
合作研究:模拟潮汐主导三角洲的沉积物输送和相关地层:巴布亚新几内亚弗莱河
  • 批准号:
    0504465
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

相似海外基金

Collaborative Research: LTREB Renewal - River ecosystem responses to floodplain restoration
合作研究:LTREB 更新 - 河流生态系统对洪泛区恢复的响应
  • 批准号:
    2324879
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: LTREB Renewal - River ecosystem responses to floodplain restoration
合作研究:LTREB 更新 - 河流生态系统对洪泛区恢复的响应
  • 批准号:
    2324878
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: Timescales and drivers of floodplain disequilibrium at climatic transitions
合作研究:气候转变时洪泛区不平衡的时间尺度和驱动因素
  • 批准号:
    2335893
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
CAREER: Assessing how humans have altered floodplain organic carbon stocks
职业:评估人类如何改变洪泛区有机碳储量
  • 批准号:
    2237366
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: LTREB Renewal - River ecosystem responses to floodplain restoration
合作研究:LTREB 更新 - 河流生态系统对洪泛区恢复的响应
  • 批准号:
    2324877
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Diving into the Desert. Indigenous and Future Floodplain Management
潜入沙漠。
  • 批准号:
    LP210300105
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Linkage Projects
Collaborative Research: LTREB Renewal - River ecosystem responses to floodplain restoration
合作研究:LTREB 更新 - 河流生态系统对洪泛区恢复的响应
  • 批准号:
    2324880
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Floodplain evolution focusing on river avulsion
洪泛区演变以河流撕脱为重点
  • 批准号:
    23H00721
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
The Role of Large Wood in Promoting Channel-Floodplain Connectivity for River Restoration
大木材在促进河道-洪泛区连通性和河流恢复中的作用
  • 批准号:
    2229839
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Timescales and drivers of floodplain disequilibrium at climatic transitions
合作研究:气候转变时洪泛区不平衡的时间尺度和驱动因素
  • 批准号:
    2114748
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 31.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
{{ showInfoDetail.title }}

作者:{{ showInfoDetail.author }}

知道了