Communication of uncertainty in the IPCC: A comparative international study

IPCC 中的不确定性沟通：一项比较国际研究

• 批准号: 1125879
• 负责人: David Budescu
• 金额: $ 24.51万
• 依托单位: Fordham University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-15 至 2014-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1125879&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Communication; uncertainty; IPCC; comparative; international

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes periodical reports (assessments) informing policymakers and the public on issues related to global climate change. The IPCC uses verbal descriptions of uncertainty (such as unlikely) to convey the underlying imprecision of its forecasts and conclusions. Previous studies showed that the public interprets these probabilistic statements as less extreme than intended by the authors, and that there are large individual differences in the interpretation of these statements. These studies suggest that supplementing the probability words with numerical ranges would increase differentiation between terms and consistency of interpretation. Climate change is a global issue and the IPCC is a global body whose reports and conclusions are translated to many languages and have international impact. This project is a collaborative multi-national study of the of IPCC communication of uncertainty. We plan to administer translated questionnaires in many countries, to investigate cross-national differences in interpretation of probabilistic pronouncements, relate those to attitudes towards global climate change, and outline methods to improve the effectiveness of communication. Our results and recommendations should help improve the way the IPCC communicate uncertainty in its future reports.

政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）出版定期报告（评估），向决策者和公众通报与全球气候变化有关的问题。IPCC使用对不确定性的口头描述（如不太可能）来传达其预测和结论的潜在不准确性。先前的研究表明，公众对这些概率性陈述的解释没有作者预期的那么极端，而且对这些陈述的解释存在很大的个体差异。这些研究表明，用数值范围补充概率词将增加术语之间的差异和解释的一致性。 气候变化是一个全球性问题，IPCC是一个全球性机构，其报告和结论被翻译成多种语言，具有国际影响。该项目是一项关于IPCC不确定性交流的多国合作研究。我们计划在许多国家管理翻译的问卷，调查概率声明的解释的跨国差异，将其与对全球气候变化的态度联系起来，并概述提高沟通有效性的方法。我们的研究结果和建议应该有助于改进IPCC在其未来报告中传达不确定性的方式。