RAPID: Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Sea Water pCO2 in IPCC AR5 Coupled Carbon/Climate Models

据目前估计，南大洋人为吸收的二氧化碳约占全球海洋二氧化碳吸收的40%。进入海洋的二氧化碳通量是由大气和表层海洋之间的分压（pCO2）差异驱动的。随着海洋表层二氧化碳分压值的增加，南大洋的吸收速率应该会减慢，除非有其他过程（如深层平流、表面冷却？）抵消这一作用。过去几十年对南大洋二氧化碳分压值的测量表明，大规模的南极环极流（ACC）系统正在变暖，这也导致了表面二氧化碳分压的增加。各种ACC锋面以南的上升水进一步增加了地表的二氧化碳分压（呼吸）水平，但可能被包围南极的锋面以南的强西风系统向极地移动所抵消。西风带的这种变化减少了二氧化碳分压交换发生的海洋面积。这些不同而又相互作用的物理因素的相互作用，对于下一代气候-地球系统模式在预测未来大气二氧化碳浓度方面的成功，以及为未来气候预测带来的技能，是一个有用的诊断。快速供资支持将允许在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）碳/气候耦合模型（地球系统模型）的下一个变体中检查南大洋二氧化碳分压场的变化，这些变化是作为IPCC下一个评估报告（IPCC AR5）的一部分而制作的。IPCC AR5 EaSMs所揭示的南大洋二氧化碳分压随时间变化趋势的相互比较，提供了一种评估现有最佳气候模式预测技能的方法。快速支持是合适的，因为从模型输出进入可公开访问的存档到分析模型输出的论文被接受发表的最后期限之间的时间窗口很短。AR5章节作者禁止引用尚未被同行评议期刊接受发表的研究，并且论文必须在2012年8月之前被接受，以便在AR5中被引用。

Southern Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is currently estimated to be responsible for about 40% of the global oceanic CO2 uptake. Fluxes of CO2 into the ocean are driven by the differences in the partial pressure (pCO2) between the atmosphere and the surface ocean layer. As the surface ocean layers increase their pCO2 values, the uptake rate of the Southern Ocean should slow, unless other process (e.g. deep advection, surface cooling?) counteract this. Measurements of Southern Ocean pCO2 values over the past several decades have indicated a warming of the massive Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) system, also leading to increasing surface pCO2. Upwelled water south of the various ACC fronts further brings increased (respired) pCO2 levels to the surface, but may be offset by poleward shifts in the strong westerly wind systems south of the fronts which encircle the Antarctic. Such shifts in the westerlies serve to reduce the area of the ocean over which pCO2 exchange can take place. The interplay of these different yet interacting physical factors is a useful diagnostic for the success of the next generation of climate-earth systems models in predicting future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the skill brought to future climate projections.RAPID funding support will allow the examination of the variations, over decadal time sales, of the Southern Ocean pCO2 fields in the next variants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled carbon/ climate models (earth system models) being produced as part of the next IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Intercomparisons of Southern Ocean pCO2 trends over time, as revealed by in IPCC AR5 EaSMs, provides a way of assessing the skill of best available climate model predictions.RAPID support is appropriate due to the short time window between the arrival of the model output in a publicly accessible archive and the deadline for papers analyzing the model output to be accepted for publication. AR5 chapter authors are prohibited from citing research which has not been accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal, and papers must be accepted by August 2012 in order to be referenced in the AR5.