RAPID: Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Sea Water pCO2 in IPCC AR5 Coupled Carbon/Climate Models

RAPID：IPCC AR5 碳/气候耦合模型中南大洋海水 pCO2 的比对

• 批准号: 1129005
• 负责人: ChuanLi Jiang
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: Earth and Space Research
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2012-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1129005&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Intercomparison; Southern; Ocean; Sea

Southern Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is currently estimated to be responsible for about 40% of the global oceanic CO2 uptake. Fluxes of CO2 into the ocean are driven by the differences in the partial pressure (pCO2) between the atmosphere and the surface ocean layer. As the surface ocean layers increase their pCO2 values, the uptake rate of the Southern Ocean should slow, unless other process (e.g. deep advection, surface cooling?) counteract this. Measurements of Southern Ocean pCO2 values over the past several decades have indicated a warming of the massive Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) system, also leading to increasing surface pCO2. Upwelled water south of the various ACC fronts further brings increased (respired) pCO2 levels to the surface, but may be offset by poleward shifts in the strong westerly wind systems south of the fronts which encircle the Antarctic. Such shifts in the westerlies serve to reduce the area of the ocean over which pCO2 exchange can take place. The interplay of these different yet interacting physical factors is a useful diagnostic for the success of the next generation of climate-earth systems models in predicting future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the skill brought to future climate projections.RAPID funding support will allow the examination of the variations, over decadal time sales, of the Southern Ocean pCO2 fields in the next variants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled carbon/ climate models (earth system models) being produced as part of the next IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Intercomparisons of Southern Ocean pCO2 trends over time, as revealed by in IPCC AR5 EaSMs, provides a way of assessing the skill of best available climate model predictions.RAPID support is appropriate due to the short time window between the arrival of the model output in a publicly accessible archive and the deadline for papers analyzing the model output to be accepted for publication. AR5 chapter authors are prohibited from citing research which has not been accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal, and papers must be accepted by August 2012 in order to be referenced in the AR5.

目前估计，南大洋对人为二氧化碳的吸收约占全球海洋二氧化碳吸收的40%。进入海洋的二氧化碳通量是由大气和表层海洋之间的分压(PCO2)差异驱动的。随着表层海洋PCO2值的增加，南大洋的吸收速率应该会减慢，除非有其他过程(如深平流、表面冷却？)抵消这一点。过去几十年对南大洋PCO2值的测量表明，巨大的南极绕极洋流(ACC)系统变暖，也导致表面PCO2值增加。各种ACC锋面以南的上升水进一步将增加的(呼吸的)二氧化碳水平带到地表，但可能被环绕南极的锋面以南的强烈西风系统的极地转移所抵消。西风带的这种变化有助于减少可以发生二氧化碳交换的海洋面积。这些不同但相互作用的物理因素的相互作用对下一代气候-地球系统模型在预测未来大气二氧化碳浓度方面的成功以及为未来气候项目带来的技能是一个有用的诊断。RAPID的资金支持将使人们能够审查作为政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)下一份评估报告(IPCC AR5)的一部分编制的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)碳/气候耦合模型(地球系统模型)的下一个变种中南大洋二氧化碳气田在十年时间内的变化。IPCC AR5 EaSms中揭示的南大洋二氧化碳随时间变化趋势的相互比较，提供了一种评估最佳可用气候模式预测技能的方法。RAPID的支持是适当的，因为公开可访问的档案中的模型输出到达与分析模型输出的论文被接受发表的截止日期之间的时间窗口很短。AR5章节的作者不得引用尚未被同行评议期刊接受发表的研究，论文必须在2012年8月之前被接受，才能在AR5中被引用。