Climate Change and Biogeography: Effects of Extreme Events

该项目的长期目标是对沿海地区气候变化对生物多样性的影响作出可核实的预测。通过证伪一些地理学假设和证实其他地理学假设，研究人员将建立一个预测的机制框架，可以通过对过去世纪气候变化中记录的地理学变化进行后报来验证。欧洲潮间带丰富的地理历史，过去3个寒冷冬季的极端条件，以及我们迅速扩大的生态预测能力的汇合，为预测生物多样性对气候变化的反应提供了一个独特的机会。研究人员将量化生态优势潮间带物种的集合种群动态，以确定负责设定地理界限的机制，并对未来变化进行长期预测。这项研究还将使他们能够测试偶发极端事件对集合方法用于地理预报的有效性的影响。在不断变化的气候中，随着极端事件频率的增加，重要的是要确定地理学是否能够“赶上”，或者由人口储存效应和连通性引起的时间滞后是否会阻止生物学跟踪长期变化。本文所述的生态工程和生物多样性预测与后报方法对全球海洋生境具有普遍适用性。所有生态系统都有生态上占优势的物种，控制着其他生物的组合，它们都是集合种群，其连通性和年龄结构通过人口储存效应决定了它们对气候变化和极端事件的敏感性。球员改变从一个地方到另一个地方，海洋环境也发生变化，但这里应用的方法是广泛transferable.Intellectual MeritThe这项研究的结果将影响显着的话语气候变化的影响。迄今为止，研究成果主要集中在描述地理范围的逐渐变化和探索驱动这些变化的机制上。在这方面的文献很少有讨论的重要性，大规模的偶发性灾难性事件的地理范围，或如何捕捉这些事件在预测生态对气候变化的反应。气候变化的一个核心预测是这种潜在的灾难性气候事件的频率增加，这些事件有能力以棘轮式的方式定期重置物种的范围边界。中心的兴趣是在何种程度上，这种极端事件的重置决定长期的生态学模式，由于集合种群动态和时间滞后的组合所造成的“存储效应”的长寿individuals.Broader ImpactsThis项目将产生一个注释书目的生态学数据从葡萄牙，西班牙和法国的生物多样性文献的19世纪和20世纪初，其中大部分在北美是不可用的。PI积极支持本科生在实验室和实地工作中的研究，并鼓励学生在全国会议上展示他们的工作。PI在正式教学中使用基于研究的方法，包括广泛阅读主要科学文献和多学科假设驱动的实验室练习。PI将与当地高中教师合作，他们一直是PI研究论文的共同作者。这些合作将通过南加州大学科学教育中心的科学实验室项目得到加强，该项目将学生和教师带到南加州大学进行为期一天的实验室体验。该项目将编制一份欧洲海岸气候变化地图集，其中包括历史风险和极端事件分布的衡量标准。将把人口模式与区域气候预测结合起来，编制下世纪的预测地图集。这些产品将被用作将科学成果转化为更有用产品的模式。PI在其基于网络的海洋社区压力7天生态预报中使用了这种方法，这些社区正处于向NOAA业务状态过渡的初始阶段。参与者还与决策者接触，并与资源管理人员密切合作。

The long term goal of this project is to make verifiable forecasts of the biodiversity consequences of climate change in the coastal zone. By falsifying some and corroborating other biogeographic hypotheses, the investigators will establish a mechanistic framework for forecasting that can be verified by hindcasting the biogeographic changes that have been documented over the past century of climate change. The confluence of the rich biogeographic history of the European intertidal, the extreme conditions of the past 3 cold winters, and our rapidly expanding abilities in ecological forecasting provide a unique opportunity to make extraordinary progress in forecasting biodiversity responses to climate change. The investigators will quantify the metapopulation dynamics of ecologically dominant intertidal species to determine mechanisms responsible for setting geographic limits, and develop long term forecasts of future change. This research will also allow them to test the effect of episodic extreme events on the usefulness of ensemble methods for biogeographic forecasting. In a changing climate, with increasing frequencies of extreme events, it is important to determine whether the biogeography can ever "catch up", or whether the time lags caused by the demographic storage effect and connectivity will prevent the biology from ever tracking the long term change. The methods for ecological engineer and biodiversity forecasting and hindcasting that are described here have general applicability to marine habitats worldwide. All ecosystems have ecologically dominant species that control the rest of the assemblage of organisms, and they all are metapopulations whose connectivity and age structure determines their sensitivity to climate change and extreme events via the demographic storage effect. The players change from place to place and the oceanographic context also changes, but the methods applied here are broadly transferable.Intellectual MeritThe results of this study will impact dramatically the discourse on the impacts of climate change. Results to date have centered on descriptions of gradual biogeographic range changes and exploration of the mechanisms driving those changes. Rarely in this literature is there discussion of the importance of broadscale episodic catastrophic events on biogeographic ranges, or how to capture those events in forecasting ecological response to climate change. A central prediction of climate change is an increase in the frequency of such potentially catastrophic climatic events which have the power to periodically reset the range boundaries of species in a ratchet-like manner. Of central interest is the degree to which such resets by extreme events determine long-term biogeographic patterns due to the combination of metapopulation dynamics and time lags caused by "storage effects" of long-lived individuals.Broader ImpactsThis project will produce an annotated bibliography of biogeographic data from the Portuguese, Spanish, and French biodiversity literature of the 19th and early 20th centuries, much of which is unavailable in North America. The PIs actively support undergraduate research in their laboratories and field work, and encourage their students to present their work at national meetings. The PIs use research-based approaches in formal teaching, including extensive readings of the primary scientific literature and multi-disciplinary hypothesis driven laboratory exercises. The PIs will collaborate with local high school teachers, who have been co-authors of research papers with the PIs. These collaborations will be enhanced with the Science Lab program of the USC Center for Science Education, which brings students and teachers to USC for 1-day lab experiences. The project will develop a climate change atlas of the European coast including measures of historical risk and the distribution of extreme events. A forecast atlas of the next century will be developed by coupling population models to regional climate forecasts. These products will be used as models of ways to translate scientific results into products of greater utility. The PIs have used this approach in their web-based 7-day ecological forecasts of stress in marine communities, which are in the initial phase of transition to NOAA operational status. The PIs have also engaged policy makers and have worked closely with resource managers.