RAPID: Response of European Intertidal Communitites to the Severe Winter of 2009-2010

智力优势：1962年至1963年的冬天是欧洲自1740年以来最冷的冬天，对潮间带种群产生了灾难性的影响，包括许多物种的大规模死亡和数百公里的地理范围缩小。一些物种及其相关群落花了近50年的时间才恢复到以前的范围限制。根据中分辨率成像光谱仪卫星和国际综合海洋大气数据集（ICOADS）的海洋表面温度测量数据，2009-10年欧洲的严冬似乎与1962-63年几乎相同。今年冬天的后果提供了一个绝佳的机会，以测试机制控制主要生态系统工程物种在岩石和沉积潮间带栖息地在大陆尺度上的地理限制，并了解罕见的气候事件在控制大陆模式的社区组成的作用。由于PI拥有过去5年受影响海岸300多个地点20-50公里间距的高空间分辨率丰度数据，因此他们处于探测2009-10年冬季影响的地理范围的绝佳位置，但他们需要迅速采取行动，以区分控制地理分布的替代机制。该项目将在2010年夏季进行实地考察，以确定50年来最冷的冬季之一对生态优势的岩石和沉积海岸物种的地理分布的影响。PI将测试以下地理假设：1）南方物种的北方地理范围限制是由成年人对冬季寒冷的耐受性决定的，由a）繁殖失败或B）死亡率介导。2)南方种的北方地理分布范围的限制是由成年人对夏季寒冷的不耐受，由生殖失败介导的。3)北方物种的南方地理界限是由成年人对暖冬的不耐受性设定的，并由生殖失败介导。4)北方物种的南方地理界限是由成年或幼年对温暖夏季条件的不耐受所决定的。PI将在2010年夏天派遣两个小组到欧洲收集数据，以验证这些假设。两名研究生和一名本科生将重新调查他们小组在2006-2009年从葡萄牙中部到苏格兰测量的300多个地点。结果可能会对气候变化影响的讨论产生巨大影响。迄今为止的结果，包括PI的结果，都集中在描述逐渐的地理范围变化和探索驱动这些变化的机制上。然而，气候变化的一个核心预测是，像1962-63年和2009-10年的冬天这样的潜在灾难性气候事件的频率越来越高，这些事件有可能以棘轮式的方式周期性地重置物种的范围边界。该项目将提供两名研究生一名学生（女）和一名本科生（男）有机会在欧洲海岸开展地理学实地工作。他们将在从葡萄牙到英国的海洋实验室与欧洲海洋科学家会面。在6周的时间里，他们将接触到大陆规模的生物多样性模式，这是很少有研究人员见过的。在南卡罗来纳州大学，额外的本科生（3名女性）将参与数据分析。所有与会者将在2011年全国底栖生态会议上为海报和口头介绍做出贡献。

Intellectual Merit: The winter of 1962-63 in Europe was the coldest since 1740 and had catastrophic effects on intertidal populations, including mass mortality of many species and contraction of geographic ranges by hundreds of kilometers. Some species and their associated communities took almost 50 years to return to their previous range limits. The severe winter of 2009-10 in Europe appears to have been virtually identical to that of 1962-63, based on sea surface temperature measurements from MODIS satellites and International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) data. The aftermath of this winter offers an outstanding opportunity to test the mechanisms controlling the biogeographic limits of major ecosystem engineering species in rocky and sedimentary intertidal habitats on a continental scale, and to understand the role of rare climatic events in controlling continental patterns of community composition. Because the PIs have data at high spatial resolution on abundance from over 300 locations at 20-50 km spacing over the affected coasts from the past 5 years, they are in an excellent position to detect the geographic scale of the effects of the winter of 2009-10, but they need to move quickly to distinguish among alternative mechanisms controlling the biogeographic distribution. This project will conduct field campaigns in the summer of 2010 to determine the effects of the one of the coldest winters in 50 years on the geographic distribution of ecologically dominant rocky and sedimentary shore species.The PIs will test the following geographic hypotheses:1) The northern geographic range limit of the southern species is set by adult intolerance of winter cold, mediated by a) reproductive failure or b) mortality. 2) The northern geographic range limit of the southern species is set by adult intolerance of summer cold, mediated by reproductive failure. 3) The southern geographic limit of the northern species is set by adult intolerance of warm winters, mediated by reproductive failure. 4) The southern geographic limit of the northern species is set by adult or juvenile intolerance of warm summer conditions.The PIs will send two teams to Europe to collect data in the summer of 2010 to test these hypotheses. The PIs, two graduate students and an undergraduate will resurvey the more than 300 sites measured by their group in 2006-2009 from central Portugal to Scotland.The results are likely to impact dramatically the discourse on impacts of climate change. Results to date, including those of the PIs, have centered on descriptions of gradual biogeographic range changes and exploration of the mechanisms driving those changes. A central prediction of climate change, however, is the increasing frequency of potentially catastrophic climatic events like the winters of 1962-63 and 2009-10 which have the potential to periodically reset the range boundaries of species in a ratchet-like manner.Broader Impacts: This project will provide two graduate students (both female) and one undergraduate (male) the opportunity to carry out biogeographic field work on the coast of Europe. They will meet with European marine scientists at marine laboratories from Portugal to the United Kingdom. Over the course of 6 weeks, they will be exposed to continental-scale patterns of biodiversity that very few investigators ever see. At the University of South Carolina, additional undergraduates (3 females) will participate in the analysis of the data. All participants will contribute to poster and oral presentations at the national Benthic Ecology meeting in 2011.