Doctoral Dissertation Research: Disengagement from Terrorism in Northern Ireland and the Basque Country

对恐怖主义集团的研究通常与它们所参与的社会运动分开进行。因此，对恐怖主义现象的理解及其结论的过程是有限的。对20世纪90年代北爱尔兰和平进程的成功和过去十年在西班牙巴斯克地区实现和平的失败进行的比较历史调查，提供了基于社会运动理论贡献的恐怖主义如何结束的解释。理论表明，集权的、等级分明的恐怖主义运动比分散的、结构松散的运动更能通过谈判摆脱暴力。这些运动结构很大程度上是国家反恐努力的产物。有针对性的反恐政策侧重于瓦解该运动的军事派别，这使得恐怖主义运动中的和平派别得以出现和巩固。更广泛地说，针对暴力和非暴力武装分子的集中镇压，实际上有利于倡导暴力的强硬派。结合档案和基于访谈的研究，本研究重建了爱尔兰和巴斯克运动中发生的战略话语，以展示这些运动在结束暴力方面面临的具体限制。它还重建了运动中的和平派别克服限制并努力结束恐怖主义冲突的方式。这项研究的意义不仅仅是为爱尔兰的成功和巴斯克的失败提供解释。首先，通过探索反恐与内部运动政治之间的相互作用，研究结果可以有助于制定政策，促进恐怖主义运动中和平派别的出现和发展。其次，本研究使政策制定者和调解人更好地了解和平派别在其运动中摆脱暴力所面临的特定困境和障碍。最后，巴斯克政治的最新发展使这个项目显得尤为及时。2010年9月5日，埃塔发起了另一次停火。通过向西班牙的政策受众介绍以前解决冲突的尝试失败的方式，并从“成功”的爱尔兰案例中找出适用的相似之处，该项目可以有助于推进有助于最终解决巴斯克地区暴力冲突的战略。

Terrorist groups are generally studied in isolation from the social movements in which they are embedded. As a result, understanding the phenomenon of terrorism and the process of its conclusion are limited. This comparative historical investigation of the success of the Northern Irish peace process during the 1990s and the failure over the last decade to achieve peace in the Basque Country of Spain provides an explanation of how terrorism ends based on the contributions of social movement theory.Theory suggests that centralized and hierarchical terrorist movements are better able to negotiatedisengagement from violence than are de-centered, loosely-structured movements. These movement structures are largely a product of the state's counterterrorist efforts. Targeted counterterrorist policy focused on the dismantling of the military wing of the movement allows for the emergence and consolidation of peace factions within terrorist movements. More broadly, focused repression, targeting both violent and non-violent militants, actually favors violence-advocating hardliners. Combining both archival and interview-based research, this research reconstructs the strategic discourse that occurred within the Irish and Basque movements in order to demonstrate the specific constraints these movements faced in ending violence. It also reconstructs the ways in which peace factions within the movements overcame the constraints and worked to end terrorist conflicts.This research has implications beyond providing an explanation for the Irish success and Basque failure. First, by exploring the interactions between counterterrorism and internal movement politics, the findings can contribute to crafting policy which facilitates the emergence and development of peace factions within terrorist movements. Second, this research provides policy-makers and mediators with a better understanding of particular dilemmas and obstacles that peace factions face within their movements in leaving violence behind. Finally, recent developments in Basque politics make this project especially timely. On September 5, 2010, ETA initiated yet another ceasefire. By informing policy audiences in Spain of the ways in which previous attempts to resolve the conflict failed, and by identifying applicable parallels from the "successful" Irish case, this project can contribute to advancing strategies which could facilitate the eventual resolution of violent conflict in the Basque country.