Doctoral Dissertation Research: Disengagement from Terrorism in Northern Ireland and the Basque Country

对恐怖组织的研究一般是与其所在的社会运动相隔离的。因此，对恐怖主义现象及其结论过程的理解是有限的。对1990年代北爱尔兰和平进程的成功和过去十年西班牙巴斯克地区实现和平的失败的比较历史考察，根据社会运动理论的贡献，解释了恐怖主义是如何结束的。理论表明，集中式和等级制的恐怖主义运动比分散的、松散结构的运动更有能力通过谈判摆脱暴力。这些运动结构在很大程度上是国家反恐努力的产物。以解散该运动军事派别为重点的有针对性的反恐政策使恐怖主义运动内部的和平派别得以出现和巩固。更广泛地说，针对暴力和非暴力激进分子的集中镇压，实际上有利于暴力--倡导强硬派。结合基于档案和访谈的研究，本研究重建了爱尔兰和巴斯克运动中发生的战略话语，以展示这些运动在结束暴力方面面临的具体制约。它还重建了运动中的和平派别如何克服制约，努力结束恐怖主义冲突的方式。这项研究的意义不仅仅是为爱尔兰的成功和巴斯克的失败提供解释。首先，通过探讨反恐和内部运动政治之间的相互作用，这些发现可以有助于制定政策，促进恐怖主义运动中和平派别的出现和发展。第二，这项研究使政策制定者和调解人能够更好地了解和平派别在摆脱暴力的运动中所面临的特殊困境和障碍。最后，巴斯克政治的最新发展使这一项目特别及时。2010年9月5日，埃塔又发起了一次停火。通过向西班牙的政策受众通报以前解决冲突的尝试失败的方式，并从“成功的”爱尔兰案例中找出适用的相似之处，该项目可有助于推动各项战略，从而促进最终解决巴斯克地区的暴力冲突。

Terrorist groups are generally studied in isolation from the social movements in which they are embedded. As a result, understanding the phenomenon of terrorism and the process of its conclusion are limited. This comparative historical investigation of the success of the Northern Irish peace process during the 1990s and the failure over the last decade to achieve peace in the Basque Country of Spain provides an explanation of how terrorism ends based on the contributions of social movement theory.Theory suggests that centralized and hierarchical terrorist movements are better able to negotiatedisengagement from violence than are de-centered, loosely-structured movements. These movement structures are largely a product of the state's counterterrorist efforts. Targeted counterterrorist policy focused on the dismantling of the military wing of the movement allows for the emergence and consolidation of peace factions within terrorist movements. More broadly, focused repression, targeting both violent and non-violent militants, actually favors violence-advocating hardliners. Combining both archival and interview-based research, this research reconstructs the strategic discourse that occurred within the Irish and Basque movements in order to demonstrate the specific constraints these movements faced in ending violence. It also reconstructs the ways in which peace factions within the movements overcame the constraints and worked to end terrorist conflicts.This research has implications beyond providing an explanation for the Irish success and Basque failure. First, by exploring the interactions between counterterrorism and internal movement politics, the findings can contribute to crafting policy which facilitates the emergence and development of peace factions within terrorist movements. Second, this research provides policy-makers and mediators with a better understanding of particular dilemmas and obstacles that peace factions face within their movements in leaving violence behind. Finally, recent developments in Basque politics make this project especially timely. On September 5, 2010, ETA initiated yet another ceasefire. By informing policy audiences in Spain of the ways in which previous attempts to resolve the conflict failed, and by identifying applicable parallels from the "successful" Irish case, this project can contribute to advancing strategies which could facilitate the eventual resolution of violent conflict in the Basque country.