RAPID: Preliminary Scientific and Sociological Assessment of the Southeastern U.S. Tornado Outbreak of 27 April 2011

RAPID：对 2011 年 4 月 27 日美国东南部龙卷风爆发的初步科学和社会学评估

• 批准号: 1140387
• 负责人: Kevin Knupp
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: University of Alabama in Huntsville
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2013-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1140387&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Preliminary; Scientific; Sociological; Assessment

A widespread outbreak of exceptionally damaging severe thunderstorms, many of which bore unusually intense and long-track tornadoes, swept across the southeastern U.S. on 27 April 2011. The death toll for this regional disaster stands at well over 300, with a majority of these fatalities occurring across Alabama. The primary objectives of this study are (i) to provide timely assessment of those meteorological factors (synoptic to mesoscale) and external influences (e.g., atmospheric thermal boundaries and gravity-wave forcing, influences of local topography and surface roughness etc.) impacting tornadogenesis, modulation of tornado intensity, and resultant variations in damage and loss of life; (ii) to conduct a preliminary analysis of the variability in structure of storms producing significant tornadoes over a relatively compressed span of time; (iii) to further evaluate and quantify damage characteristics of select tornadoes at high spatial resolution via aerial and ground-based surveys; and (iv) to assess the public's response to issued tornado warnings and perceived tornado threat. Related goals are to better understand why fatality counts were so high, and to explore ways to mitigate loss of life in future severe weather events in this region. This latter effort will be coordinated with a recently completed NOAA/National Weather Service Assessment of this historic outbreak. Research quality dual-polarimetric and dual-Doppler radar analyses will be developed with attention to more timely and reliable identification of signatures linked to severe storm behavior using modernized observing technologies. A workshop bringing together a variety of research and operational meteorologists and emergency managers familiar with this historic outbreak will be conducted in Huntsville, and a related article will be prepared for submission to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.The intellectual merit of this effort centers upon identification of those mechanisms responsible for sharp spatial and temporal variations in observed storm characteristics and the remarkable intensity of tornado damage that occurred on 27 April 2011, with particular attention to any aspects that may be unique to the atmospheric environment or underlying topography typical of the southeastern U.S. Broader impacts will accrue through development of a comprehensive dataset will provide new and supporting information on real-time diagnosis of radar signatures of tornadoes, student education, and via outreach to a variety of meteorological experts and first responders responsible for safeguarding the public.

2011年4月27日，一场广泛爆发的极具破坏性的严重雷暴席卷了美国东南部，其中许多雷暴携带了异常强烈和长轨迹的龙卷风。这场地区性灾难的死亡人数远远超过300人，其中大部分死亡发生在阿拉巴马州。这项研究的主要目的是(I)及时评估气象因素(天气尺度到中尺度)和外部影响(例如，大气热边界和重力波强迫、当地地形和地表粗糙度的影响等)。该等目标包括：(I)评估龙卷风对龙卷风发生的影响、龙卷风强度的调制，以及由此产生的损害和生命损失的变化；(Ii)初步分析在相对压缩的时间跨度内产生重大龙卷风的风暴结构的变异性；(Iii)通过空中和地面调查，进一步评估和量化部分高空间分辨率龙卷风的损害特征；及(Iv)评估公众对已发出龙卷风警报和感知到的龙卷风威胁的反应。相关目标是为了更好地了解死亡人数如此之高的原因，并探索在该地区未来的恶劣天气事件中减少生命损失的方法。后一项工作将与最近完成的NOAA/国家气象局对这一历史性疫情的评估进行协调。将发展研究质量的双极化和双多普勒雷达分析，同时注意利用现代化观测技术更及时、更可靠地识别与严重风暴行为有关的特征。将在亨茨维尔举办一次研讨会，汇聚熟悉这一历史性暴发的各种研究和业务气象学家和应急管理人员，并将准备一篇相关文章提交《美国气象学会公报》。这项工作的学术价值集中在确定导致观测到的风暴特征的时空急剧变化和2011年4月27日龙卷风破坏的显著强度的机制，特别注意美国东南部典型的大气环境或基本地形所特有的任何方面。通过开发一个全面的数据集，将提供关于龙卷风雷达信号实时诊断、学生教育以及与负责保护公众的各种气象专家和第一反应人员进行接触的新的和辅助信息，将产生更广泛的影响。