The Demographic Consequences of Environmental Variability and Individual Heterogeneity in Life-history Tactics of a Long-lived Antarctic Marine Predator

摘要南极洲埃里伯斯湾威德尔海豹的数量？罗斯海是世界上最南端的哺乳动物繁殖种群，与持久的海岸坚冰密切相关，自1968年以来一直被深入研究。由此产生的长期数据库包括20 586名被标记个人的数据，其中载有详细的人口信息，为研究南极环境条件与人口过程之间的联系提供了一个极好的机会。人口？罗斯海是南大洋最富饶的地区之一，也是地球上仅存的少数几个原始海洋环境之一，与南极半岛和北极相比，罗斯海的位置具有特殊的意义，它正经历着逐渐延长的海冰季节。（2）从广泛的研究人群中收集和分析数据的经验;（3）分层模型的最新统计学进展，允许严格处理个体异质性（在标记重捕获和体重数据中），并纳入假设解释健身成分变化的各种协变量。要考虑的协变量包括个人及其母亲的特征和一生的环境条件。该研究将继续（1）为其他科学项目提供已知年龄个体的详细数据，（2）通过学术和专业培训和研究经验教育和指导下一代生态学家。

AbstractThe Erebus Bay population of Weddell seals in Antarctica?s Ross Sea is the most southerly breeding population of mammal in the world, closely associated with persistent shore-fast ice, and one that has been intensively studied since 1968. The resulting long-term database, which includes data for 20,586 marked individuals, contains detailed population information that provides an excellent opportunity to study linkages between environmental conditions and demographic processes in the Antarctic. The population?s location is of special interest as the Ross Sea is one of the most productive areas of the Southern Ocean, one of the few pristine marine environments remaining on the planet, and, in contrast to the Antarctic Peninsula and Arctic, is undergoing a gradual lengthening of the sea-ice season.The work to be continued here capitalizes on (1) long-term data for individual seals and their polar environment; (2) experience collecting and analyzing data from the extensive study population; and (3) recent statistical advances in hierarchical modeling that allow for rigorous treatment of individual heterogeneity (in mark-recapture and body mass data) and inclusion of diverse covariates hypothesized to explain variation in fitness components. Covariates to be considered include traits of individuals and their mothers and environmental conditions throughout life. The study will continue to (1) provide detailed data on known-age individuals to other science projects and (2) educate and mentor the next generation of ecologists through academic and professional training and research experiences.