The Future of Rural China: Evaluation of an Agent-Based Model to Predict Home Heating and Cooking Practices on Energy Use

该奖项支持阿比尔盖尔·沃特鲁斯女士在中国的博士论文田野研究。她的研究试图回答学生S的论文问题：在未来20年里，教育、收入和迁移因素将如何影响中国农村的固体燃料使用？该项目旨在增进对中国农村能源使用的了解和了解，包括三个部分：对农民工进行调查，以了解迁移对能源前景和燃料使用的影响；成人能源教育项目；以及继续记录农村能源使用情况。沃特鲁斯将与北京清华大学的杨旭东教授合作，利用创新的分析和建模方法(基于代理的模型)以及公共调查。这是一个独特的项目，它将开发重要的数据以及相关的分析工具，以应对扩大能源使用和相关气候变化的挑战。由于能源使用带来了几个社会和环境挑战，特别是在中国遇到的问题的规模上，这一建议尤其及时。该项目的一个重要贡献是更好地了解中国农村人口向城市迁移的影响，因为它与总体能源使用有关。

This award supports the doctoral dissertation field research of Ms. Abilgail Watrous in China. Her research seeks to answer the student?s thesis question: "How will the factors of education, income, and migration influence solid-fuel use in rural China over the next 20 years?" The project, which is designed to advance knowledge and understanding of rural energy use in China, has three components: surveys of migrant workers to understand how migration affects energy perspectives and fuel use, adult energy-education programs, and continued documentation of rural energy use. Ms. Watrous will collaborate with Prof. Xudong Yang of Tsinghua University in Beijing and make use of innovative analytical and modeling methods (agent-based models) as well as the public surveys. This is a unique project that will develop important data as well as the related analytical tools to address the challenges of expanding energy use and the associated climate change. Because energy use raises several social and environmental challenges, especially at the scale of the issue encountered in China, this proposal is especially timely. An important contribution of the project is to understand better the impact of the migration of rural Chinese to cities as it relates to overall energy use.