Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: International Criminal Tribunals' Impact on Violence Against Civilians in Ongoing Conflicts

政治学博士论文研究：国际刑事法庭对持续冲突中针对平民的暴力行为的影响

• 批准号: 1160364
• 负责人: Karen Alter
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-04-01 至 2015-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1160364&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

The post-Cold War era has witnessed unspeakable atrocities against civilians. In the Bosnian war alone, tens of thousands of civilians perished, not accounting for wider traumas wrought by the bombings of major cities and rampant sexual violence. In establishing the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and a subsequent generation of international criminal tribunals (ICTs), members of the international community sought to craft devices that could curb such atrocities and even break the cycles of violence that perpetuate them. And yet, by holding out the threat of criminal prosecution, ICTs could potentially delay the end of hostilities as parties hold out for immunity, or even trigger violent retaliation. Almost nineteen years after the creation of the first post-Cold War ICT, we still know very little about the actual impact of prosecuting war crimes. What we do know, however, is that with the creation of the first permanent ICT--the International Criminal Court (ICC)--the shadow of criminal prosecution extends to contemporary conflicts.In order to better understand how and when ICTs might impact violence against civilians, this project starts off by exploring the ICTY's involvement in the conflicts in Croatia (1991-95), Bosnia (1992-95), Kosovo (1998-99), and Macedonia (2001). The hostilities associated with the break-up of Yugoslavia allow one to investigate an ICT's varied role in conflicts that have run their course. Moreover, these cases afford me access to a wealth of reliable longitudinal data that often does not exist for more recent conflicts. In addition, the wars in Croatia and Bosnia present interesting variation that I can explore. In particular, the ICTY came into existence midway through both conflicts. These cases can thus help me to determine whether the ICTY's involvement per se shaped behaviors on the ground while hostilities were still raging. My fieldwork investigates how the existence and actions of the ICTY influenced the various conflicts associated with the break-up of Yugoslavia over time. The research includes collecting primary documents generated while hostilities were still playing out, and interviewing ICTY officials, veterans, political elites, and international/local activists associated with each conflict. I will use interview and archival data to reconstruct patterns of events in an effort to understand how the ICTY affected the decisions and actions of (would-be) war criminals, as well as the broader networks of actors whose active or tacit support facilitated violence against civilians.Ultimately, I expect to find that the ICTY's influence was variable, meaning that in certain cases it was unable to influence outcomes despite extensive efforts, yet in others, the shadow of criminal prosecution had some tangible effect on the strategies of actors on the ground and the international support structures that became important in the post-conflict phase of reconstruction. I intend to publish my findings as a series of scholarly articles and as a book, and use the research to develop courses on international criminal justice. I also hope to build on this research in the future, focusing on the wide range of cases in which the ICC has become involved. With the ICC, the shadow of criminal prosecution now extends to modern-day conflicts. It is thus essential that we begin to understand how and when ICTs might actually contribute to limiting violence against civilians. The current project constitutes an important step forward in this effort.

冷战后时代见证了针对平民的难以形容的暴行。 仅在波斯尼亚战争中，就有数万名平民丧生，这还不包括主要城市的爆炸和猖獗的性暴力造成的更广泛的创伤。 在建立前南斯拉夫问题国际刑事法庭（ICTY）和随后的一代国际刑事法庭（ICT）时，国际社会成员试图制定能够遏制此类暴行，甚至打破使这些暴行长期存在的暴力循环的手段。 然而，通过抵制刑事起诉的威胁，信息通信技术可能会推迟敌对行动的结束，因为各方坚持要求豁免，甚至引发暴力报复。 冷战后第一个信息通信技术创建近十九年后，我们对起诉战争罪行的实际影响仍然知之甚少。 然而，我们所知道的是，随着第一个永久性信息通信技术——国际刑事法院（ICC）的建立，刑事起诉的阴影延伸到了当代冲突。为了更好地了解信息通信技术如何以及何时可能影响针对平民的暴力行为，该项目首先探讨了前南问题国际法庭对克罗地亚（1991-95）、波斯尼亚（1992-95）、科索沃冲突的参与情况。 （1998-99）和马其顿（2001）。 与南斯拉夫解体相关的敌对行动使我们能够调查信息通信技术在已经发生的冲突中的不同作用。 此外，这些案例使我能够获得大量可靠的纵向数据，而这些数据在最近的冲突中通常不存在。 此外，克罗地亚和波斯尼亚的战争呈现出我可以探索的有趣变化。 特别是，前南问题国际法庭是在这两场冲突中途成立的。 因此，这些案例可以帮助我确定前南问题国际法庭的参与本身是否影响了敌对行动仍在激烈进行时的实地行为。我的实地调查调查了前南问题国际法庭的存在和行动如何影响与南斯拉夫解体有关的各种冲突。 研究包括收集敌对行动仍在进行时生成的主要文件，并采访前南问题国际法庭官员、退伍军人、政治精英以及与每次冲突有关的国际/当地活动人士。 我将使用采访和档案数据来重建事件模式，以努力了解前南问题国际法庭如何影响（潜在的）战犯的决定和行动，以及更广泛的行为者网络，这些行为者的积极或默许支持助长了针对平民的暴力行为。最终，我预计会发现前南问题国际法庭的影响力是可变的，这意味着在某些情况下，尽管做出了广泛的努力，它仍无法影响结果，但在其他情况下，却受到刑事起诉的影响 对实地行动者的战略和国际支持结构产生了一些切实的影响，这些影响在冲突后重建阶段变得非常重要。 我打算将我的发现作为一系列学术文章和一本书发表，并利用这些研究开发国际刑事司法课程。 我还希望将来能够以这项研究为基础，重点关注国际刑事法院参与的广泛案件。 有了国际刑事法院，刑事起诉的阴影现在延伸到了现代冲突。 因此，我们必须开始了解信息通信技术如何以及何时真正有助于限制针对平民的暴力行为。 当前的项目是这一努力向前迈出的重要一步。