Collaborative Research: Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS)

这是一项试点工作，旨在参与讨论将北冰洋模型相互比较活动（北冰洋模型相互比较项目，AOMIP）改为一个名为北极建模和观测综合论坛（FAMOS）的新项目，该项目将侧重于北冰洋科学的组织和加强不同贡献学科之间的合作与协调。观察家，理论家和建模者将在从生成假设到规划和最终确定分析的所有级别的活动中都有代表。这项试点工作将探讨如何通过年度项目会议、虚拟研讨会以及科学家之间的交流和合作来管理这项工作。FAMOS的长期科学目标是：㈠继续以协调一致的方式验证和改进区域北冰洋模型，㈡研究如何改进再分析产品，重点是数据同化和综合观测系统的设计，㈢继续调查北冰洋和海冰在季节至十年时间尺度上的变化，重点是各种过程，分析IPCC模型结果，根据北极观测结果和区域北极模型结果验证这些结果。该项目将赞助一个讲习班;鼓励和协调形成相互比较项目，重点是解决观测和建模界感兴趣的当前问题;编写关于FAMOS的论文和进行讲座，并领导正在进行的相互比较项目，从最初的集思广益到最终出版;提供有限的差旅费和结果出版资金。在未来，FAMOS被认为将有助于提高我们对海洋和海冰过程的理解。FAMOS最重要的贡献可能是：开发区域北极模型，确定模型误差和这些误差和模型差异的原因，通过实施新的物理学和北极过程参数化改进现有区域冰-海耦合模型和大气环流模型的建议。在这些活动中，一项重要贡献将是评估1870年至今北极海冰和海洋参数的状况和变化。对北冰洋变异性的调查采取协调一致的社区方法是评估不同建模者、科学团体或机构所作结果和结论的不确定程度的唯一途径。因此，FAMOS将为这一评估做出贡献，并建立一套基准，表征北冰洋建模的最新技术水平，以及对北冰洋气候及其变化的最新分析。FAMOS活动的最大影响之一是教育（包括AOMIP/FAMOS学校），因为它促进了参与该项目的年轻科学家的成长，为现有模型的批判性分析提供了指导方针，并由新一代北极建模者对北极模型进行了富有成效的改进和发展。

This is a pilot effort to engage in discussions to change arctic ocean model inter comparison activities (Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, AOMIP) into a new project called the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) that will focus on the organization of arctic ocean science and enhancing collaboration and coordination among different contributing disciplines. Observationalists, theoreticians, and modelers will be represented at all levels of activities starting from generating hypotheses, to planning and finalizing analyses. This pilot effort will explore how the work will be managed through annual project meetings, virtual workshops, and scientist-to-scientists communications and collaborations. The long term FAMOS science goals are to: (i) Continue validation and improvement of regional Arctic Ocean models in a coordinated fashion, (ii) Investigate ways to improve reanalysis products with a focus on data assimilation and the design of comprehensive observing systems, (iii) Continue investigation of variability of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice at seasonal to decadal time scales focusing on the processes, and identify mechanisms responsible for the observed changes, and (vi) Analyze IPCC model results validating them against observations in the Arctic and results from the regional Arctic models. The project will sponsor a workshop; encourage and coordinate formation of intercomparison projects focused on solving current issues of interest to the observational and modeling communities; prepare papers and give talks about FAMOS and lead the ongoing intercomparison projects from initial brainstorming to final publication; provide limited funding for travel and for publication of results. In the future it is thought that FAMOS will help improve our understanding of oceanic and sea-ice processes. The most significant FAMOS contributions will likely be: development of regional arctic models, identification of model errors and causes of these errors and model discrepancies, recommendations for improvements of existing regional coupled ice-ocean models and GCMs by implementing new physics and parameterizations for arctic processes. Within these activities, an important contribution will be an assessment of the state and variability of Arctic sea ice and ocean parameters from 1870-present. The coordinated community approach to the investigation of Arctic Ocean variability is the only way to assess the degree of uncertainty in results and conclusions made by different modelers, scientific groups, or institutions. Therefore, FAMOS will contribute to this assessment and establish a set of benchmarks characterizing the state-of-the-art of Arctic Ocean modeling, and the newest analysis of the Arctic Ocean climate and its variability. One of the highest impacts of the FAMOS activity is educational (including the AOMIP/FAMOS school) because it promotes the growth of young scientists participating in the project, provides guidelines for critical analysis of the existing models, and fruitful improvements and developments of the arctic models by a new generation of arctic modelers.