Collaborative Research: Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS)

这是一项试点工作，旨在参与讨论，将北冰洋模式相互比较活动（北冰洋模式相互比较项目，AOMIP）转变为一个名为北极模式和观测综合论坛（FAMOS）的新项目，该项目将侧重于北冰洋科学的组织，并加强不同贡献学科之间的合作与协调。从产生假设到计划和最终分析，观察主义者、理论家和建模者将在活动的各个层面上都有代表。这一试点工作将探索如何通过年度项目会议、虚拟研讨会以及科学家对科学家的交流与合作来管理这项工作。FAMOS的长期科学目标是：(i)以协调的方式继续验证和改进区域北冰洋模式；（ii）研究改进再分析产品的方法，重点是数据同化和综合观测系统的设计；（iii）继续研究北冰洋和海冰在季节至年代际时间尺度上的变率，重点是过程，并确定造成观测到的变化的机制；（vi）分析IPCC模式结果，对照北极观测结果和北极区域模式结果进行验证。该项目将赞助一个讲习班；鼓励和协调形成相互比较项目，重点是解决观测界和模拟界感兴趣的当前问题；编写关于FAMOS的论文和演讲，并领导从最初的头脑风暴到最终出版的正在进行的相互比较项目；提供有限的旅费和出版结果经费。在未来，人们认为FAMOS将有助于提高我们对海洋和海冰过程的理解。FAMOS最重要的贡献可能是：开发区域北极模式，确定模式误差以及这些误差和模式差异的原因，建议通过实施北极过程的新物理和参数化来改进现有的区域耦合冰-海洋模式和gcm。在这些活动中，一项重要贡献将是评估1870年至今北极海冰和海洋参数的状态和变化。北冰洋变率调查的协调社区方法是评估不同建模者、科学团体或机构得出的结果和结论的不确定性程度的唯一方法。因此，FAMOS将有助于这一评估，并建立一套基准，以表征最先进的北冰洋模式，以及对北冰洋气候及其变率的最新分析。FAMOS活动的最大影响之一是教育（包括AOMIP/FAMOS学校），因为它促进了参与项目的年轻科学家的成长，为现有模式的批判性分析提供了指导方针，并为新一代北极建模者提供了卓有成效的改进和发展。

This is a pilot effort to engage in discussions to change arctic ocean model inter comparison activities (Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, AOMIP) into a new project called the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) that will focus on the organization of arctic ocean science and enhancing collaboration and coordination among different contributing disciplines. Observationalists, theoreticians, and modelers will be represented at all levels of activities starting from generating hypotheses, to planning and finalizing analyses. This pilot effort will explore how the work will be managed through annual project meetings, virtual workshops, and scientist-to-scientists communications and collaborations. The long term FAMOS science goals are to: (i) Continue validation and improvement of regional Arctic Ocean models in a coordinated fashion, (ii) Investigate ways to improve reanalysis products with a focus on data assimilation and the design of comprehensive observing systems, (iii) Continue investigation of variability of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice at seasonal to decadal time scales focusing on the processes, and identify mechanisms responsible for the observed changes, and (vi) Analyze IPCC model results validating them against observations in the Arctic and results from the regional Arctic models. The project will sponsor a workshop; encourage and coordinate formation of intercomparison projects focused on solving current issues of interest to the observational and modeling communities; prepare papers and give talks about FAMOS and lead the ongoing intercomparison projects from initial brainstorming to final publication; provide limited funding for travel and for publication of results. In the future it is thought that FAMOS will help improve our understanding of oceanic and sea-ice processes. The most significant FAMOS contributions will likely be: development of regional arctic models, identification of model errors and causes of these errors and model discrepancies, recommendations for improvements of existing regional coupled ice-ocean models and GCMs by implementing new physics and parameterizations for arctic processes. Within these activities, an important contribution will be an assessment of the state and variability of Arctic sea ice and ocean parameters from 1870-present. The coordinated community approach to the investigation of Arctic Ocean variability is the only way to assess the degree of uncertainty in results and conclusions made by different modelers, scientific groups, or institutions. Therefore, FAMOS will contribute to this assessment and establish a set of benchmarks characterizing the state-of-the-art of Arctic Ocean modeling, and the newest analysis of the Arctic Ocean climate and its variability. One of the highest impacts of the FAMOS activity is educational (including the AOMIP/FAMOS school) because it promotes the growth of young scientists participating in the project, provides guidelines for critical analysis of the existing models, and fruitful improvements and developments of the arctic models by a new generation of arctic modelers.