Collaborative Research: Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS)

这是一项试验性努力，旨在开展讨论，将北冰洋模式比较活动(北冰洋模式比较项目，AOMIP)转变为一个名为北极建模和观测综合论坛(FAMOS)的新项目，该论坛将侧重于组织北冰洋科学，并加强不同贡献学科之间的合作与协调。观察家、理论家和模型师将参加从产生假设到规划和最终完成分析的所有活动级别。这项试点工作将探索如何通过年度项目会议、虚拟研讨会以及科学家与科学家之间的交流和合作来管理这项工作。海洋和海洋观测系统的长期科学目标是：(1)继续以协调一致的方式确认和改进区域北冰洋模式；(2)探索改进再分析产品的方法，侧重于数据同化和综合观测系统的设计；(3)继续调查北冰洋和海冰在季节至年代尺度上的变异性，侧重于过程，并查明造成所观测变化的机制；(6)分析经气专委模式结果验证后的结果，以北极的观测结果和北极区域模型的结果为依据。该项目将主办一次讲习班；鼓励和协调形成以解决当前观测和模型界感兴趣的问题为重点的相互比较项目；编写关于FAMOS的论文和演讲，并领导正在进行的从最初的集思广益到最后发表的相互比较项目；为旅行和出版结果提供有限的资金。在未来，人们认为FAMOS将有助于提高我们对海洋和海冰过程的理解。FAMOS最重要的贡献可能是：开发北极区域模式，确定模式错误和这些错误的原因以及模式差异，建议通过实施北极过程的新物理和参数来改进现有的区域冰-海耦合模式和全球气候机制。在这些活动中，一项重要贡献将是评估自1870年至今的北冰洋海冰和海洋参数的状况和可变性。对北冰洋变异性的调查采用社区协调办法，是评估不同模型师、科学团体或机构得出的结果和结论的不确定性程度的唯一途径。因此，FAMOS将为这项评估做出贡献，并建立一套基准，以表征北冰洋模拟的最新水平，以及对北冰洋气候及其变异性的最新分析。FAMOS活动的最大影响之一是教育(包括AOMIP/FAMOS学校)，因为它促进了参与该项目的年轻科学家的成长，为对现有模型的批判性分析提供了指导，并由新一代北极建模人员对北极模型进行了卓有成效的改进和发展。

This is a pilot effort to engage in discussions to change arctic ocean model inter comparison activities (Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, AOMIP) into a new project called the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) that will focus on the organization of arctic ocean science and enhancing collaboration and coordination among different contributing disciplines. Observationalists, theoreticians, and modelers will be represented at all levels of activities starting from generating hypotheses, to planning and finalizing analyses. This pilot effort will explore how the work will be managed through annual project meetings, virtual workshops, and scientist-to-scientists communications and collaborations. The long term FAMOS science goals are to: (i) Continue validation and improvement of regional Arctic Ocean models in a coordinated fashion, (ii) Investigate ways to improve reanalysis products with a focus on data assimilation and the design of comprehensive observing systems, (iii) Continue investigation of variability of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice at seasonal to decadal time scales focusing on the processes, and identify mechanisms responsible for the observed changes, and (vi) Analyze IPCC model results validating them against observations in the Arctic and results from the regional Arctic models. The project will sponsor a workshop; encourage and coordinate formation of intercomparison projects focused on solving current issues of interest to the observational and modeling communities; prepare papers and give talks about FAMOS and lead the ongoing intercomparison projects from initial brainstorming to final publication; provide limited funding for travel and for publication of results. In the future it is thought that FAMOS will help improve our understanding of oceanic and sea-ice processes. The most significant FAMOS contributions will likely be: development of regional arctic models, identification of model errors and causes of these errors and model discrepancies, recommendations for improvements of existing regional coupled ice-ocean models and GCMs by implementing new physics and parameterizations for arctic processes. Within these activities, an important contribution will be an assessment of the state and variability of Arctic sea ice and ocean parameters from 1870-present. The coordinated community approach to the investigation of Arctic Ocean variability is the only way to assess the degree of uncertainty in results and conclusions made by different modelers, scientific groups, or institutions. Therefore, FAMOS will contribute to this assessment and establish a set of benchmarks characterizing the state-of-the-art of Arctic Ocean modeling, and the newest analysis of the Arctic Ocean climate and its variability. One of the highest impacts of the FAMOS activity is educational (including the AOMIP/FAMOS school) because it promotes the growth of young scientists participating in the project, provides guidelines for critical analysis of the existing models, and fruitful improvements and developments of the arctic models by a new generation of arctic modelers.