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P2C2: Estimating Climate Sensitivity from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

P2C2：根据末次盛冰期的温度重建估算气候敏感性

基本信息

批准号：
1204243
负责人：
Andreas Schmittner
金额：
$ 34.53万
依托单位：
Oregon State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2012-08-15 至 2017-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1204243&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
P2C2 Estimating Climate Sensitivity Temperature

项目摘要

This is a project to use paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) and a variety of climate models to evaluate equilibrium climate sensitivity. Schmittner-Boesch published an influential paper in 2011 suggesting that the geological evidence implied an equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 of 1.4 to 2.8 C, lower than the IPCC4 likely range of 2 to 4.5 C and that the geological data ruled out very high sensitivities to doubling of CO2. However there were several issues left unresolved. For instance, several different paleoclimate reconstructions of the LGM produce different average reductions in global temperatures, which have a big effect of the sensitivity estimates. In addition, the range of error on the paleoclimate reconstructions is large and the effects of this error on the climate sensitivity need to be better quantified. Finally the initial study was performed with a "reduce-complexity" climate model. It was not clear the extent to which the result was affected by choice of model. This project will further evaluate these issues by expanding the paleoclimate reconstructions used in the study and incorporating the output from fully coupled climate model simulations of the LGM. Several new reconstructions of the LGM have been published and are now available for analysis. With access to the new CMIP5/PMIP3 models - with specific LGM boundary conditions/reconstructions - it is now possible to perform the analysis of equilibrium climate sensitivity in a more rigorous way by constraining the reduced-complexity model with output from the CMIP5/PMIP3 model results.This project will support a climate modeler from Oregon State University, who will collaborate with a statistician from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. Mentoring and training of a postdoctoral researcher is included in the project.

该项目利用末次盛冰期（LGM：21,000 年前）的古气候重建和各种气候模型来评估平衡气候敏感性。 Schmittner-Boesch 在 2011 年发表了一篇有影响力的论文，表明地质证据表明平衡气候对大气中二氧化碳倍增的敏感性为 1.4 至 2.8℃，低于 IPCC4 可能的范围 2 至 4.5℃，并且地质数据排除了对二氧化碳倍增的非常高的敏感性。然而，还有几个问题尚未解决。例如，末次盛宴的几种不同的古气候重建产生了不同的全球气温平均下降，这对敏感性估计有很大影响。此外，古气候重建的误差范围较大，需要更好地量化该误差对气候敏感性的影响。最后，初步研究是使用“降低复杂性”气候模型进行的。目前尚不清楚模型选择对结果的影响程度。该项目将通过扩大研究中使用的古气候重建并纳入末次盛宴完全耦合气候模型模拟的输出来进一步评估这些问题。末次盛宴的几个新重建结果已经发布，现在可供分析。通过使用新的 CMIP5/PMIP3 模型（具有特定的 LGM 边界条件/重建），现在可以通过使用 CMIP5/PMIP3 模型结果的输出来约束复杂性降低的模型，以更严格的方式执行平衡气候敏感性分析。该项目将支持俄勒冈州立大学的气候建模师，该建模师将与伍德罗·威尔逊公共与国际事务学院的统计学家合作在普林斯顿大学。该项目包括对博士后研究员的指导和培训。