P2C2: Estimating Climate Sensitivity from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

P2C2：根据末次盛冰期的温度重建估算气候敏感性

基本信息

批准号：
1204243
负责人：
Andreas Schmittner
金额：
$ 34.53万
依托单位：
Oregon State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2012-08-15 至 2017-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1204243&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
P2C2 Estimating Climate Sensitivity Temperature

项目摘要

This is a project to use paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) and a variety of climate models to evaluate equilibrium climate sensitivity. Schmittner-Boesch published an influential paper in 2011 suggesting that the geological evidence implied an equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 of 1.4 to 2.8 C, lower than the IPCC4 likely range of 2 to 4.5 C and that the geological data ruled out very high sensitivities to doubling of CO2. However there were several issues left unresolved. For instance, several different paleoclimate reconstructions of the LGM produce different average reductions in global temperatures, which have a big effect of the sensitivity estimates. In addition, the range of error on the paleoclimate reconstructions is large and the effects of this error on the climate sensitivity need to be better quantified. Finally the initial study was performed with a "reduce-complexity" climate model. It was not clear the extent to which the result was affected by choice of model. This project will further evaluate these issues by expanding the paleoclimate reconstructions used in the study and incorporating the output from fully coupled climate model simulations of the LGM. Several new reconstructions of the LGM have been published and are now available for analysis. With access to the new CMIP5/PMIP3 models - with specific LGM boundary conditions/reconstructions - it is now possible to perform the analysis of equilibrium climate sensitivity in a more rigorous way by constraining the reduced-complexity model with output from the CMIP5/PMIP3 model results.This project will support a climate modeler from Oregon State University, who will collaborate with a statistician from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. Mentoring and training of a postdoctoral researcher is included in the project.

这是一个使用最后一次冰川最大的古气候重建（LGM：21，000年前）和各种气候模型来评估平衡气候气候灵敏度的项目。 Schmittner-Boesch在2011年发表了一篇有影响力的论文，表明地质证据暗示气候对大气CO2的1.4至2.8 C的两倍的均衡敏感性，低于IPCC4的2至4.5 C范围，而地质数据则排除了非常高的CO2敏感性。但是，尚未解决几个问题。例如，LGM的几种不同古气候重建产生不同的平均降低，在全球温度下，敏感性估计具有很大的影响。另外，古气候重建的误差范围很大，并且这种误差对气候灵敏度的影响需要更好地量化。最后，使用“减少复杂性”气候模型进行了初步研究。目前尚不清楚结果在多大程度上受模型的影响。该项目将通过扩展研究中使用的古气候重建，并结合LGM的完全耦合气候模型模拟的输出来进一步评估这些问题。 LGM的几项新重建已发布，现在可以进行分析。通过访问新的CMIP5/PMIP3模型（具有特定LGM边界条件/重建），现在可以通过更严格的方式以更严格的方式进行平衡气候敏感性的分析，并通过CMIP5/pmip3模型的cmip5/pmip3模型来限制降低复杂模型的降低模型。在普林斯顿大学。该项目包括对博士后研究人员的指导和培训。