Uncertainty in Precipitation Inputs in Ecosystem Studies

EARLY概念探索性研究补助金（EAGER）提案的目的是在小流域生态系统的尺度上，对水和养分的降水通量的不确定性进行初步分析。这项工作补充了对森林生物量和河流负荷不确定性的初步研究。不确定性分析对于生态系统质量平衡的构建至关重要，生态系统质量平衡是生态系统科学的支柱之一，但很少进行或报道。不解决不确定性可能导致重要和错误的结论，例如在确定生态系统碳或养分预算中缺失的源和汇方面。拟议的活动建立在大量现有数据和建立质量平衡的经验基础上，并将特别利用多年来从新罕布什尔州哈伯德布鲁克的五个流域收集的独特的每周降水量和化学数据。这是一个很好的机会，可以帮助生态系统科学进入一个更现代的时代，处理这些数据集中的不确定性，这通常是非常常见的。该项目的更广泛影响可能具有变革性。PI及其同事希望促进文化变革，使不确定性分析成为构建生态系统预算的公认和预期实践。

The purpose of this EArly-concept Grant for Exploratory Research (EAGER) proposal is to develop an initial analysis of uncertainty in precipitation fluxes of water and nutrients at the scale of a small-watershed ecosystem. This effort complements preliminary studies of uncertainty in forest biomass and in stream loads. Uncertainty analysis is critical to the construction of ecosystem mass balances, one of the pillars of ecosystem science, but is rarely conducted or reported. Failure to address uncertainties can lead to important and erroneous conclusions, for example in identifying missing sources and sinks in ecosystem carbon or nutrient budgets. The activities proposed build upon a large amount of extant data and experience in constructing mass balances and will specifically utilize the unique weekly precipitation volume and chemistry data collected over many years from five watersheds at Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire. This is a great opportunity to help move ecosystem science into a more modern era of dealing with uncertainties in such datasets, which are generally quite common. The broader impacts of the project are potentially transformative. The PI and colleagues hope to facilitate a cultural change that makes uncertainty analysis an accepted and expected practice in the construction of ecosystem budgets.