EMBRACE-AGS-Growth: Compounding Extremes--Trends in, Links among, and Impacts of Marine Heatwaves, Human Heat Stress, and Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States

拥抱-AGS-增长：极端情况的复合——美国东南部海洋热浪、人类热应激和强降水的趋势、相互联系和影响

• 批准号: 2407240
• 负责人: Shawn Milrad
• 金额: $ 37.64万
• 依托单位: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-06-01 至 2028-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2407240&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EMBRACE; AGS; Growth; Compounding; Extremes

As global temperatures have risen, extreme heat and rainfall events have increased in frequency and intensity in warm humid climates such as the Southeast U.S. These extremes are manifested in anomalous ocean heat events that can devastate ecosystems (marine heat waves [MHWs]), humid heat stress over land, and heavy precipitation. While each of these extremes has been studied individually, this project will be the first to investigate their compound co-occurrences, trends, and links in the Southeast U.S. Furthermore, by incorporating census-derived metrics of human vulnerability, this research will identify the sub-regions and metropolitan areas within the Southeast U.S. that are most affected by the three compound extremes, which often exact their greatest toll on vulnerable populations. To communicate key results to relevant stakeholders and the public, monthly professional-quality broadcast videos will be produced and disseminated through social media and web platforms. The broadcasts will be led by STEM students and professionals at the host institution, creating a cohort of young researchers responsible for undertaking climate change research and communicating it to diverse audiences on a regular basis. Despite occurring on different timescales, MHWs, humid heat stress, and heavy precipitation events have all increased in intensity and frequency, especially in humid subtropical climates such as the Southeast U.S. This project will first establish a climatology and trend analysis of MHWs in waters adjacent to the Southeast U.S. Next, using wet bulb globe temperature and high-resolution reanalysis data, work will elucidate the frequencies and trends in humid heat stress extremes over land areas adjacent to MHWs. The third project phase will examine the compound occurrences and causal mechanisms among the three extreme event types over the past few decades. This analysis will increase understanding of the frequency and trends in the compound extremes, as well as the physical mechanisms that connect them. Finally, social vulnerability data will be integrated into the compound extremes dataset to produce a gridded compound extremes vulnerability index for the Southeast U.S. This index will be able to identify areas that are not only experiencing more frequent and severe compound extremes, but also contain large numbers of socioeconomically vulnerable persons, poor drainage, and lack access to cooling, all of which can result in even greater human impacts from compound hazards.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着全球气温的上升，极端高温和降雨事件在温暖潮湿的气候地区(如美国东南部)的频率和强度都有所增加。这些极端事件表现为异常的海洋热事件，可能破坏生态系统(海洋热浪[MHW])、陆地上的湿热压力和强降水。虽然已经单独研究了这些极端中的每一个，但该项目将第一次调查它们在美国东南部的复合共生情况、趋势和联系。此外，通过纳入人口普查得出的人类脆弱性指标，这项研究将确定美国东南部受三种复合极端影响最大的子地区和大都市地区，这三种复合极端往往对脆弱人口造成最大的损失。为了向相关利益攸关方和公众传达关键成果，将每月制作专业质量的广播视频，并通过社交媒体和网络平台传播。转播将由STEM学生和主办机构的专业人员领导，建立一支年轻的研究人员队伍，负责开展气候变化研究，并定期与不同的受众交流。尽管发生在不同的时间尺度上，MHW、湿热应激和强降水事件的强度和频率都有所增加，特别是在潮湿的副热带气候，如美国东南部。这个项目将首先建立美国东南部附近水域MHW的气候学和趋势分析。接下来，利用湿球全球温度和高分辨率再分析数据，工作将阐明MHW附近陆地地区极端湿热应激的频率和趋势。第三个项目阶段将研究过去几十年来三种极端事件类型之间的复合发生和因果机制。这一分析将增加对复合极端的频率和趋势以及连接它们的物理机制的理解。最后，社会脆弱性数据将被整合到复合极端数据集中，以生成美国东南部的网格化复合极端脆弱性指数。该指数将能够识别不仅经历更频繁和更严重的复合极端，而且包含大量社会经济脆弱者、排水不良和缺乏冷却途径的地区，所有这些都可能导致复合危险对人类造成更大的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。