The Effects of Zoning and Local Regulatory Environment on Housing Prices and Foreclosure Risk

本项目的重点是当地的分区和监管环境的特点是否以及如何与止赎风险。 尽管地方政府对减少最近止赎激增的影响有着浓厚的兴趣，但人们对如何利用地方管辖区现有的政策工具来尽量减少止赎风险知之甚少。 对止赎决定因素的研究主要关注于追踪借款人和贷款人的冒险行为、贷款相关政策以及监管不力的金融市场。 一个小的，但越来越多的文献机构提出了一个明确的联系之间的住房价格，住房供应和丧失抵押品赎回权。 这个项目将探讨抵押品赎回权丧失风险和土地使用管制之间的隐含联系。 调查人员认为，当分区限制住房类型和负担能力的供应和多样性时，购房者可能被迫进入更高的价格类别，因此可能更容易被取消抵押品赎回权。 在额外的不利条件下（触发事件）尤其如此，例如房主收入或房屋价值下降。 在最近的房地产泡沫和随后的破裂期间，人们越来越容易获得次级贷款工具，这可能加剧了这一现象。 调查员将通过以下研究问题来检查这些联系：（1）一个地区的分区住房容量和分区住房类型的多样性与住房价格上涨率的提高有何关系？ (2)在控制其他因素的情况下，次级抵押贷款活动率高的地区是否与当地监管特点和房价变化有关？ (3)法规和房价上涨在多大程度上导致了房主丧失抵押品赎回权？ 由于市政当局通常是负责分区决策的政府实体，他将主要在美国使用多个大都市区的市政一级研究这些关系。 他还将研究这些城市内的邮政编码和单个地块级别的协会，以测试这些尺度上的分区和住房价格文献所提出的理论关联。 由于丧失抵押品赎回权的风险可能会受到空间单位以外的因素的影响，因此将运用空间自回归模型（空间滞后模型）和多水平回归模型，分析跨越地域界限和等级尺度的相互作用。本课题将系统地将影响住宅生产和供应的分区政策纳入丧失抵押品赎回权的风险分析中，填补目前与地方条件相关的研究的差距。 项目结果将提供重要证据，以促进考虑采取更有力的政策干预措施，并帮助社区增强抵御未来冲击的能力。该项目的框架和调查结果将通过学术和政策渠道广泛传播，并将补充有助于查明负担得起的住房短缺和集中风险地区的工具。

This project focuses on whether and how characteristics of local zoning and regulatory environment are related to foreclosure risks. Despite the strong interest of local governments in reducing the impact of the recent surge in foreclosures, little is known about how the policy tools available to local jurisdictions can be used to minimize the risk of foreclosure. Research on determinants of foreclosures has concerned primarily on tracing the risk-taking behavior of borrowers and lenders, lending-related policies, and poorly regulated financial markets. A small but growing body of literature presents a clear link between housing price, housing supply, and foreclosure. This project will explore the implied connections between foreclosure risk and land-use regulation. The investigator posits that when zoning restricts the supply and diversity of housing types and affordability, homebuyers may be forced into a higher price category and consequently may have a higher vulnerability to foreclose. This can be especially true under additional adverse conditions (trigger events), such as when there is a decline in homeowner income or housing value. This phenomenon may have been exacerbated by increased access to subprime lending instruments during the recent housing bubble and subsequent burst. The investigator will examine these connections through the following research questions: (1) How are the zoned housing capacities and diversity of zoned housing types in an area related to higher rates of housing price escalation? (2) Controlling for other factors, are areas with high rates of sub-prime mortgage activity associated with local regulatory characteristics and changes in housing prices? (3) To what degree did regulations and housing price escalation contribute to the vulnerability of homeowners to foreclose? As municipalities are most often the government entities responsible for zoning decisions, he will examine these relationships primarily at the municipal level using multiple metropolitan areas in the United States. He also will look at the ZIP-code and individual parcel-level associations within these municipalities to test the theoretical associations suggested by the literature on zoning and housing price at these scales. Because foreclosure risk may be affected by factors beyond a spatial unit, he will apply spatial autoregressive models (spatial lag models) and multi-level regression models to analyze interactions across geographical boundaries and hierarchical scales.This project will address the gap in current research related to local conditions by systematically including zoning policies affecting housing production and supply into the foreclosure risk analysis. Project findings will provide important evidence to facilitate consideration of more robust policy interventions and to help foster communities more resilient to future shocks. The framework and findings of this project will be disseminated widely through academic and policy venues and will add to the tools that can help identify affordable housing shortages and areas of concentrated risk.