An Integrated Simulation Framework to Explore Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Slum Formation

这个项目是关于在世界各地快速发展的城市中开发一种贫民窟(也称为非正式或棚户区)形成的模式。今天，超过9亿人，即世界城市人口的三分之一生活在贫民窟中，其中大多数生活在发展中国家。这一现象对健康、安全、贩运、环境和其他全球关注的问题都有影响。贫民窟一直是许多政策行动的目标，但尽管如此，贫民窟内的条件并没有得到太大改善。许多旨在改善住房条件的政策往往不是基于对贫民窟的经验理解。因此，研究这些经验性问题是很重要的。(1)贫民窟是如何形成和扩大的？(2)它们是在哪里和何时形成的？以及(3)什么样的结构变化和/或政策干预可以改善城市贫困人口的住房条件？该项目将开发一个集成离散事件仿真(DES)、基于代理的建模(ABM)和地理信息系统(GIS)的建模框架。这个新的模拟框架将有助于解释和预测城市贫民窟形成的时空模式。该模型将允许政策制定者和规划者在实施实际政策之前分析他们的政策行动对贫民窟的影响。一个成功的模式可以导致有效的政策干预，不仅有助于改善城市穷人的住房条件，而且有助于贫民窟人口的普遍福利，包括健康、教育和环境可持续性。虽然该框架将针对印度艾哈迈达巴德的一个城市进行校准和验证，但将DES、地理信息系统和ABM集成到一个框架中的技术开发可以用于研究发展中国家和发达国家的其他城市系统。除了这项研究的城市政策应用，该项目还将通过让未来的科学家和研究人员参与到该项目中来为他们的发展做出贡献。在美国，一名博士后研究员将得到支持，印度环境规划与技术大学的研究生和教职员工将积极参与并与他们合作。该项目还包括一个与印度贫民窟社区合作的非政府组织参与的社区发展部分。该小组将通过贡献建模工作的各个方面，例如协助绘制贫民窟地图，帮助增强贫民窟社区的人们的能力。在这些组织的帮助下，我们希望介绍该框架并将研究结果传播给印度的各个利益攸关方，设法推广该框架以将其应用于其他城市，并引起地理和空间科学界对这一主题的进一步研究兴趣。一旦完成，模型和相关数据将通过网站公开提供，供其他感兴趣的人使用。

This project is about developing a model of slum (also known as informal or squatter settlements) formation in rapidly growing cities around the world. More than 900 million people, or a third of the world's urban population, live in slums today, the majority of them in the developing world. This phenomenon has implications for health, security, trafficking, environmental, and other issues of global concern. Slums have been the target of many policy actions, but despite these, conditions within slums have not improved much. Many of the policies aimed at improving housing conditions are often not based on an empirical understanding of slums. It is thus important to investigate these empirical questions. (1) How do slums form and expand? (2) Where and when are they formed? and (3) What types of structural changes and/or policy interventions could improve housing conditions for urban poor? This project will develop a modeling framework that is an integration of Discrete-Event Simulation (DES), Agent-based Modeling (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS). This novel simulation framework will help explain and predict the spatio-temporal patterns of slum formation in cities. The model will allow policymakers and planners to analyze the impacts of their policy actions on the slums before implementing the actual policies. A successful model could lead to effective policy interventions that could contribute not only to improving housing conditions for the urban poor, but also to the general welfare of the slum population including health, education and environmental sustainability. While the framework will be calibrated and validated for a city in India, Ahmedabad, the technological development of integrating DES, GIS, and ABM into a single framework could be used to study other urban systems both in the developing and developed world. In addition to the urban policy applications of this research, this project will contribute to the development of future scientists and researchers by involving them in the project. In the US, a post-doctoral researcher will be supported and there will be active involvement of and collaboration with graduate students and faculty at India's Center for Environmental Planning and Technology University. The project also contains a community development component through the engagement of a non-governmental organization working with slum communities in India. This group will help empower people in slum communities by contributing various aspects of the modeling efforts, for example, their assistance in the mapping of slums. With the help of these organizations we expect to introduce the framework and disseminate the findings to various stakeholders in India, seek ways to generalize the framework to apply it in other cities, and generate further research interest in the geography and spatial sciences community about this topic. Once completed, the model and associated data will be made publicly available via a website to be used by others interested in it.