Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Development or Decay?: Economic Trajectories following Political Turnover in Africa

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When and how do new political leaders overcome longstanding economic obstacles? Despite promising periods in many countries, per capita incomes in most African countries have scarcely increased and income inequality has grown since independence. This "start-stop" pattern of economic performance generates frustration with current politicians and government officials. Expectations that a leadership change will reduce corruption and expand the distribution of economic opportunities have fueled popular anti-incumbent movements in numerous countries across Africa, including Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Egypt. These expectations are mirrored by international actors, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and bilateral donors, each of whom seize on political turning points to support economic reforms and encourage new investments in developing countries. In many countries, new leaders have met these high economic expectations. Political turnovers in Madagascar, Ghana, and Ethiopia, for example, preceded periods of sustained progress on a range of development indicators. However, in other countries the record shows that turnovers and post-turnover governments sometimes lead to economic decay, characterized by instability, corruption, and disinvestment. Through field research tracing presidential turnovers, elite political behavior, and economic outcomes in Madagascar, this dissertation research will identify specific characteristics of leadership change and explain why some spur economic development and others do not. Madagascar's four leadership changes (e.g. turnovers) in the past 20 years offer an excellent opportunity for in-depth case study research into their economic effects. Its political institutions, demographic trends, and ethnic divisions are similar to broad patterns across Africa, and Madagascar's recent turnovers resulted from a diverse set of processes: a general strike in 1992, an electoral transition in 1997, an election followed by a low-grade civil war in 2002, and a coup d'etat in 2009. These turnovers were accompanied by distinct patterns of elite interactions and a variety of economic outcomes. The case study research being conducted here will compare Madagascar's turnovers, using the variety of outcomes and processes to generate hypotheses regarding the role and importance of key actors as well as the key characteristics of turnovers. During the field research, elites will be interviewed, focus groups will be held in four sites across Madagascar, and government archives will be utilized to gather evidence and test hypotheses. The findings from the case studies will add greater theoretical depth and empirical weight to the results of a quantitative analysis of turnovers and economic trajectories across Africa. The potential for political turnover is a key concern for leaders, their allies, and their political opponents, and it is a key driver of political events in many countries. In sub-Saharan Africa's recent past, attempts to either force or avoid leadership changes have led to social mobilization and violence in more states than just Madagascar, including Guinea, Uganda, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. In nearly every case, control of economic opportunities by the current political network was a cause of popular anger, and opposition actors expected turnover to improve economic conditions. Similarly, longer-term efforts by actors at the domestic and international level have attempted to encourage turnover by introducing term limits and designing incentives such as the Mo Ibrahim Prize (for leaders in Africa who willingly leave power). A sharper understanding of how turnover affects investment and which characteristics are important would provide a basis for citizens, opposition groups, and international actors to evaluate the importance of turnover and political decisions, including term limits and power-sharing agreements, that shape the process of turnover throughout a political system. To facilitate future research and transparency, the findings from this dissertation research will be presented in three settings: academic conferences and peer-reviewed journals; African universities and research institutions beginning with the Universities of Toamasina and Antananarivo; and the governance sector of the policymaking community.