Doctoral Dissertation Research: Shaping the Content of Majority Opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court

最高法院多数意见中包含的论点决定了法律的政策。然而，目前还不清楚每个多数联盟中最有影响力的成员是谁。现有的研究提出了关于最高法院最有影响力的成员的相互竞争的假设，许多模型预测趋同于一个中位数成员，而其他人则认为意见作者本人保留了重要的控制权。尽管有这些相互矛盾的预测，但并不存在解开它们的数据。本项目旨在通过获得伯格法院17个任期内美国最高法院每一份传阅的多数意见草案的副本来解决这一缺陷。这些数据将补充伯格法院意见写作数据库，该数据库包含1969年至1985年期间大法官分发给同事的所有备忘录和意见稿的信息。这些数据将成为制定法院新的住宿措施的基础。利用文本分析软件的进步，并通过将明确的谈判行动与多数意见草案内容的变化相匹配来编码住宿，这种方法显示了哪些表达的偏好被纳入意见，并提供了第一个实证测试，以确定哪些法院成员在形成意见内容方面具有影响力。由于该项目将对意见撰写过程进行前所未有的审视，因此有望提高我们对产生法院意见的合议互动的理解。将这些数据与有关制度因素、司法特征和案件事实的信息相结合，本研究将深入了解塑造国家政策的法律的意见的发展。通过这些数据，我们可以进一步理解法律的发展，同时也可以仔细研究受成员资格、部门间和部门内政治、法律的考虑等制约的合议机构成员的战略行动。本项目的数据库将向学者开放，使学者们能够广泛参与最高法院决策战略的重新思考。

The arguments contained within Supreme Court majority opinions determine legal policy. However, it remains unclear precisely who the most influential member is within each majority coalition. Existing research presents competing hypotheses about the most influential member on the Court, with many models predicting convergence to a single median member, while others suggest that the opinion author herself retains significant control. Despite these conflicting predictions, data to disentangle them do not exist. This project aims to address this deficiency by obtaining copies of each circulated majority opinion draft on the U.S. Supreme Court during the seventeen terms of the Burger Court. These data will supplement the Burger Court Opinion Writing Database, which contains information on all memoranda and opinion drafts that the justices circulated to their colleagues between the 1969 and 1985 terms. These data will be the basis for the creation of a new measure of accommodation on the Court. Using advances in text analysis software, and coding accommodation by matching explicit bargaining actions with changes in the content of the majority opinion drafts, this approach shows whose expressed preferences are incorporated into the opinion and provides the first empirical test to determine which members of the Court are influential in shaping the opinion content. As it will provide an unprecedented look into the opinion writing process, this project promises to improve our understanding of the collegial interactions that produce the Court's opinion. Combining these data with information on institutional factors, justice characteristics, and case facts, this research will provide insight into the development of the legal opinions that shape national policy. The new data will advance our understanding of the development of law, while carefully exploring the strategic actions by members of a collegial body constrained by its own membership, inter- and intra-branch politics, and legal considerations.The database from this project will be made available to scholars, allowing wide scholarly participation in reconsideration of strategies of Supreme Court decisionmaking.