Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Antarctic Surface Melt Dynamics with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs

冰川表面融化形成的冰池可能是评估冰盖稳定性及其对气候变暖的总体反应的重要阈值。雪融化有一个很大的减少，导致额外的季节性融化从温暖的日照。水径流不仅直接导致冰盖的质量损失，而且到达冰川冰床的融水可能会润滑冰盖更快地流向海洋。地表融水也可能通过现有冰隙的楔形开口到达冰川冰的接地线。融水再冻结的发生和数量甚至被认为是近地表大气温度制度的古代理。利用当代遥感（微波）卫星评估地表融化的发生和程度，对区域气象模型和再分析（例如WRF、ERA-Interim）的预测技能进行调查，以描述有利于地表融化的天气条件。统计方法和模式识别技术被认为是预测未来冰盖变化的背景。上一届政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC AR 4）评论了我们对极地地区冰盖质量平衡过程和海平面变化潜力缺乏了解的问题。国际植物保护公约建议，即将进行的第五次评估报告应突出区域冰冻圈建模工作，如本文所建议的。

The presence of ice ponds from surface melting of glacial ice can be a significant threshold in assessing the stability of ice sheets, and their overall response to a warming climate. Snow melt has a much reduced albedo, leading to additional seasonal melting from warming insolation. Water run-off not only contributes to the mass loss of ice sheets directly, but meltwater reaching the glacial ice bed may lubricate faster flow of ice sheets towards the ocean. Surficial meltwater may also reach the grounding lines of glacial ice through the wedging open of existing crevasses. The occurrence and amount of meltwater refreeze has even been suggested as a paleo proxy of near-surface atmospheric temperature regimes. Using contemporary remote sensing (microwave) satellite assessment of surface melt occurrence and extent, the predictive skill of regional meteorological models and reanalyses (e.g. WRF, ERA-Interim) to describe the synoptic conditions favourable to surficial melt is to be investigated. Statistical approaches and pattern recognition techniques are argued to provide a context for projecting future ice sheet change. The previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) commented on our lack of understanding of ice-sheet mass balance processes in polar regions and the potential for sea-level change. The IPPC suggested that the forthcoming AR5 efforts highlight regional cryosphere modeling efforts, such as is proposed here.