Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Antarctic Surface Melt Dynamics with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs

冰川表面融化形成的冰池的存在可以作为评估冰盖稳定性及其对气候变暖的总体响应的一个重要阈值。积雪融化的反照率大大降低，导致温暖的日晒造成额外的季节性融化。水的流失不仅直接导致了冰盖的质量损失，而且到达冰川冰床的融水可能会加速冰盖向海洋的流动。地表融水也可能通过现有裂缝的楔形开口到达冰川冰的接地线。融水再冻结的发生和数量甚至被认为是近地表大气温度状态的古代用物。利用当代遥感（微波）卫星对地表融化发生和程度的评估，研究区域气象模式和再分析（如WRF、ERA-Interim）描述有利于地表融化的天气条件的预测能力。统计方法和模式识别技术为预测未来冰盖变化提供了背景。之前的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC AR4）曾评论说，我们对极地冰盖质量平衡过程和海平面变化的可能性缺乏了解。国际植物保护委员会建议，即将到来的第五次评估报告的工作重点是区域冰冻圈模拟工作，例如本文提出的工作。

The presence of ice ponds from surface melting of glacial ice can be a significant threshold in assessing the stability of ice sheets, and their overall response to a warming climate. Snow melt has a much reduced albedo, leading to additional seasonal melting from warming insolation. Water run-off not only contributes to the mass loss of ice sheets directly, but meltwater reaching the glacial ice bed may lubricate faster flow of ice sheets towards the ocean. Surficial meltwater may also reach the grounding lines of glacial ice through the wedging open of existing crevasses. The occurrence and amount of meltwater refreeze has even been suggested as a paleo proxy of near-surface atmospheric temperature regimes. Using contemporary remote sensing (microwave) satellite assessment of surface melt occurrence and extent, the predictive skill of regional meteorological models and reanalyses (e.g. WRF, ERA-Interim) to describe the synoptic conditions favourable to surficial melt is to be investigated. Statistical approaches and pattern recognition techniques are argued to provide a context for projecting future ice sheet change. The previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) commented on our lack of understanding of ice-sheet mass balance processes in polar regions and the potential for sea-level change. The IPPC suggested that the forthcoming AR5 efforts highlight regional cryosphere modeling efforts, such as is proposed here.