Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Antarctic Surface Melt Dynamics with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs

合作研究：解码

• 批准号: 1235231
• 负责人: David Schneider
• 金额: $ 4.61万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-18 至 2015-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1235231&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Decoding; & Predicting

The presence of ice ponds from surface melting of glacial ice can be a significant threshold in assessing the stability of ice sheets, and their overall response to a warming climate. Snow melt has a much reduced albedo, leading to additional seasonal melting from warming insolation. Water run-off not only contributes to the mass loss of ice sheets directly, but meltwater reaching the glacial ice bed may lubricate faster flow of ice sheets towards the ocean. Surficial meltwater may also reach the grounding lines of glacial ice through the wedging open of existing crevasses. The occurrence and amount of meltwater refreeze has even been suggested as a paleo proxy of near-surface atmospheric temperature regimes. Using contemporary remote sensing (microwave) satellite assessment of surface melt occurrence and extent, the predictive skill of regional meteorological models and reanalyses (e.g. WRF, ERA-Interim) to describe the synoptic conditions favourable to surficial melt is to be investigated. Statistical approaches and pattern recognition techniques are argued to provide a context for projecting future ice sheet change. The previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) commented on our lack of understanding of ice-sheet mass balance processes in polar regions and the potential for sea-level change. The IPPC suggested that the forthcoming AR5 efforts highlight regional cryosphere modeling efforts, such as is proposed here.

冰川表面融化形成的冰池的存在可能是评估冰盖稳定性及其对气候变暖的总体反应的重要阈值。积雪融化的反照率大大降低，导致日照变暖导致额外的季节性融化。水径流不仅直接导致冰盖的质量损失，而且到达冰川冰床的融水可能会润滑冰盖更快地流向海洋。地表融水也可能通过现有裂缝的楔形开口到达冰川冰的接地线。融水再冻结的发生和数量甚至被建议作为近地表大气温度状况的古代表。利用当代遥感（微波）卫星对地表融化的发生和程度进行评估，研究区域气象模型和再分析（例如 WRF、ERA-Interim）的预测能力，以描述有利于地表融化的天气条件。人们认为统计方法和模式识别技术可以为预测未来冰盖变化提供背景。上届政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC AR4）评论说，我们对极地地区冰盖质量平衡过程和海平面变化的潜力缺乏了解。 IPPC 建议即将开展的 AR5 工作重点突出区域冰冻圈建模工作，如此处提议的那样。