IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Water, Energy, Food, and Climate Relationships in a Decision Making Context

IIASA青年科学家暑期项目：决策背景下水、能源、食物和气候关系的时空模式

• 批准号: 1241703
• 负责人: Debra Perrone
• 金额: $ 0.8万
• 依托单位: Perrone Debra
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-06-01 至 2012-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1241703&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IIASA; Young; Scientists; Summer; Program

The proposed work as an International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) participant would expand the current work of the researcher which is currently focused on developing a comprehensive understanding of the complex tradeoffs and risks involved in water, energy, and food management. The proposed work for IIASA will focus on estimating how demand side management of U.S. water resources may be affected by anthropogenic induced climate change. Historical data on and assumptions regarding future trends of population, economic growth, technological development, and resources will be used to make a portfolio of scenarios. These scenarios will be used in conjunction with climate scenarios to estimate how water demands from thermoelectric, agricultural, industrial, domestic, and public sectors, as well as water requirements for ecosystem services, may change over the next seventy years. Increased population and patterns of population density, economic growth, and development all increase water, energy, and food demands. The impacts of a changing climate will exacerbate competition for these resources, especially given the strong interrelationships among water, energy, and food. Although demand for individual resources has been studied, a systematic evaluation of readily available data has not been undertaken to evaluate water-energy-food linkages. Although these estimates cannot possibly consider the full range of plausible futures, they will expose uncertainties and promote further understanding of the impacts of linkages among climate change, resource use, and socio-economic and environmental drivers. The results of this work will be used with a multiattribute utility analysis (MAU) that will be designed to serve as a stakeholder based decision-support framework; such a framework will allow U.S. stakeholders to co-manage water, energy, and food resources in a more informed manner. Dissemination of the anticipated results is a key aspect of this work, as the results are intended to be used to support decision makers and their informational needs. All results posed in this proposal will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at national conferences, and available on the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment webpage. In addition to gaining important research skills, conducting research at IIASA will expand the researcher?s knowledge base and allow her to gain additional perspective on global environmental, economic, social, and political issues. The opportunity to network with peers who have similar interests will foster future partnerships. Resource security and decision-making are multifaceted and complex research areas; experience and training gained with respect to interdisciplinary and international collaboration will strongly contribute to the researcher?s career goals.

作为国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）青年科学家暑期项目（YSSP）的参与者，拟议的工作将扩大研究人员目前的工作，目前的重点是全面了解水，能源和食品管理中涉及的复杂权衡和风险。IIASA的拟议工作将侧重于估计美国水资源的需求方管理如何受到人为引起的气候变化的影响。关于人口、经济增长、技术发展和资源的未来趋势的历史数据和假设将用于制定一系列情景。这些情景将与气候情景结合使用，以估计热电、农业、工业、家庭和公共部门的水需求以及生态系统服务的水需求在未来70年内可能发生的变化。人口增长和人口密度模式、经济增长和发展都会增加水、能源和粮食需求。气候变化的影响将加剧对这些资源的竞争，特别是考虑到水、能源和粮食之间的密切相互关系。尽管已经研究了对个别资源的需求，但尚未对现有数据进行系统评估来评估水-能源-粮食之间的联系。虽然这些估计不可能考虑到所有可能的未来，但它们将暴露不确定性，并促进进一步了解气候变化、资源使用以及社会经济和环境驱动因素之间的联系所产生的影响。这项工作的结果将与多属性效用分析（MAU）一起使用，该分析将被设计为基于利益相关者的决策支持框架;这样的框架将使美国利益相关者能够以更明智的方式共同管理水，能源和粮食资源。传播预期成果是这项工作的一个关键方面，因为这些成果旨在用于支持决策者及其信息需求。本提案中提出的所有结果将发表在同行评审期刊上，在国家会议上提出，并可在范德比尔特能源与环境研究所网页上查阅。除了获得重要的研究技能外，在系统分析所进行研究还将扩大研究人员？的知识基础，使她获得对全球环境，经济，社会和政治问题的额外观点。有机会与有类似兴趣的同行建立联系将促进未来的伙伴关系。资源安全和决策是多方面和复杂的研究领域;在跨学科和国际合作方面获得的经验和培训将大大有助于研究人员？的职业目标。