Strategies for Navigating Uncertainty

人们经常面临艰难的等待期，因为他们预计会有关于他们或他们所爱的人的健康、人际关系、职业前景和学业成绩的不确定消息。这样的经历非常重要和普遍，足以启发人们熟悉的一句话：“等待是最艰难的部分”，然而，很少有研究研究人们在等待学习东西的过程中使用哪些策略来度过困难且往往是痛苦的时期。这项拟议的研究的主要目标是更好地理解等待的体验，确定人们管理不确定性的过程，并揭示最有效的策略，既可以在等待期间控制焦虑，也可以在得知不确定的消息后最大化收益和最小化危害。两项纵向研究将测试不确定性导航模型，该模型概述了一套常见的不确定性导航策略，并对影响这些策略使用的人的特征和情况做出预测。研究1将调查参加加州律师考试的学生在等待考试结果的几个月内的经历，研究2将调查参加高年级心理学课程的学生在等待期中考试成绩的几天内的经历。这两项研究的参与者都会反复报告他们在等待期内的焦虑、沉思和策略使用情况，一旦他们收到消息，他们也会报告他们对消息的反应。确定人们自然使用的应对不确定性的策略可以帮助驱散人们在面对不确定结果时应该如何反应的有害神话。关于应对方式的研究发现，关于正确应对方式的迷思可能会对那些选择以不同方式应对的人造成伤害，而且关于应对不确定性的迷思似乎也会产生类似的后果。例如，在等待有关自己健康的消息时，被鼓励“积极思考”的患者可能难以管理他们对悲观情绪的预期，从而努力为坏消息做好准备。相反，被鼓励在等待健康消息时“面对严峻现实”的患者，可能难以通过重新评估自己的优先事项或拥抱充满希望的前景来控制自己的焦虑。不确定性导航模型包括一系列潜在的有效策略来最小化不确定性的焦虑，其中任何一种策略在某些情况下或对某些人来说可能比另一些人更有效，该模型和拟议的研究的一个贡献是它们可以揭示对不确定性的合理反应的多样性。此外，这项拟议的研究有可能揭示对导航不确定性的最佳方法的关键和新颖的见解。最后，拟议的研究确保了代表性不足的群体的广泛参与。通常情况下，研究团队中至少有四分之三是少数族裔，60%到75%是女性。此外，妇女约占研究人口的48%，少数民族约占35%。

People frequently face difficult waiting periods when they anticipate uncertain news regarding their or their loved ones' health, relationships, professional prospects, and academic outcomes. Such experiences are sufficiently significant and common as to inspire the familiar expression, "the waiting is the hardest part," yet very little research has examined the strategies people use to navigate the difficult and often painful periods when they are waiting to learn something. The primary goals of the proposed research are to better understand the experience of waiting, to identify the processes by which people manage uncertainty, and to reveal the strategies that are most effective, both for managing anxiety during a waiting period and for maximizing benefit and minimizing harm upon learning the uncertain news. Two longitudinal studies will test the Uncertainty Navigation Model, which outlines a set of common strategies for navigating uncertainty and makes predictions about the characteristics of the person and the situation that influence use of these strategies. Study 1 will examine the experiences of people taking the California bar exam during the several months while they await their exam results, and Study 2 will examine the experiences of students in an upper-division psychology course over the several days while they await their midterm exam grades. Participants in both studies will repeatedly report their anxiety, rumination, and strategy use over the course of the waiting period, and they will also report their reactions to the news once they receive it.Identification of the strategies people naturally use to navigate uncertainty could help dispel harmful myths about how people should react in the face of uncertain outcomes. Research on coping finds that myths about the "right" ways to cope can be damaging to people who choose to cope in different ways, and it seems likely that myths about coping with uncertainty would have similar consequences. For example, patients who are encouraged to "think positively" as they await news about their health might have trouble managing their expectations toward pessimism in an effort to brace for bad news. Conversely, patients who are encouraged to "face the harsh reality" as they await health news might have difficulty managing their anxiety by reevaluating their priorities or embracing a hopeful outlook. The Uncertainty Navigation Model includes an array of potentially effective strategies for minimizing the anxiety of uncertainty, any of which might be more effective under some circumstances or for some people than others, and one contribution of the model and the proposed research is that they can reveal the diversity of reasonable responses to uncertainty. In addition, the proposed research has the potential to reveal key and novel insights into the best ways of navigating uncertainty. Finally, the proposed research ensures broad participation of underrepresented groups. Typically at least three-quarters of the research team are racial or ethnic minorities, and between 60% and 75% are women. In addition, women represent approximately 48% and minorities approximately 35% of the study population.