Strategies for Navigating Uncertainty

应对不确定性的策略

• 批准号: 1251672
• 负责人: Kate Sweeny
• 金额: $ 38.32万
• 依托单位: University of California-Riverside
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-04-01 至 2017-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1251672&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Strategies; Navigating; Uncertainty

People frequently face difficult waiting periods when they anticipate uncertain news regarding their or their loved ones' health, relationships, professional prospects, and academic outcomes. Such experiences are sufficiently significant and common as to inspire the familiar expression, "the waiting is the hardest part," yet very little research has examined the strategies people use to navigate the difficult and often painful periods when they are waiting to learn something. The primary goals of the proposed research are to better understand the experience of waiting, to identify the processes by which people manage uncertainty, and to reveal the strategies that are most effective, both for managing anxiety during a waiting period and for maximizing benefit and minimizing harm upon learning the uncertain news. Two longitudinal studies will test the Uncertainty Navigation Model, which outlines a set of common strategies for navigating uncertainty and makes predictions about the characteristics of the person and the situation that influence use of these strategies. Study 1 will examine the experiences of people taking the California bar exam during the several months while they await their exam results, and Study 2 will examine the experiences of students in an upper-division psychology course over the several days while they await their midterm exam grades. Participants in both studies will repeatedly report their anxiety, rumination, and strategy use over the course of the waiting period, and they will also report their reactions to the news once they receive it.Identification of the strategies people naturally use to navigate uncertainty could help dispel harmful myths about how people should react in the face of uncertain outcomes. Research on coping finds that myths about the "right" ways to cope can be damaging to people who choose to cope in different ways, and it seems likely that myths about coping with uncertainty would have similar consequences. For example, patients who are encouraged to "think positively" as they await news about their health might have trouble managing their expectations toward pessimism in an effort to brace for bad news. Conversely, patients who are encouraged to "face the harsh reality" as they await health news might have difficulty managing their anxiety by reevaluating their priorities or embracing a hopeful outlook. The Uncertainty Navigation Model includes an array of potentially effective strategies for minimizing the anxiety of uncertainty, any of which might be more effective under some circumstances or for some people than others, and one contribution of the model and the proposed research is that they can reveal the diversity of reasonable responses to uncertainty. In addition, the proposed research has the potential to reveal key and novel insights into the best ways of navigating uncertainty. Finally, the proposed research ensures broad participation of underrepresented groups. Typically at least three-quarters of the research team are racial or ethnic minorities, and between 60% and 75% are women. In addition, women represent approximately 48% and minorities approximately 35% of the study population.

当人们预料到他们或他们所爱的人的健康、人际关系、职业前景和学术成果等不确定的消息时，他们经常面临艰难的等待期。这样的经历非常重要，也非常普遍，以至于人们会说：“等待是最艰难的。”然而，很少有研究调查人们在等待学习的过程中，是如何度过困难和痛苦的时期的。本研究的主要目的是为了更好地理解等待的体验，确定人们管理不确定性的过程，并揭示最有效的策略，既可以在等待期间管理焦虑，也可以在学习不确定的消息时最大化利益和最小化伤害。两项纵向研究将测试不确定性导航模型，该模型概述了一套用于导航不确定性的常用策略，并对影响这些策略使用的个人特征和情况进行了预测。研究1将研究参加加州律师资格考试的人在等待考试成绩的几个月里的经历，研究2将研究参加高年级心理学课程的学生在等待期中考试成绩的几天里的经历。两项研究的参与者都将在等待期间反复报告他们的焦虑、沉思和策略使用情况，他们也将报告收到消息后的反应。确定人们在应对不确定性时自然使用的策略，可以帮助消除关于人们在面对不确定结果时应该如何反应的有害神话。关于应对的研究发现，关于“正确”应对方式的神话可能会损害那些选择以不同方式应对的人，而关于应对不确定性的神话似乎也会产生类似的后果。例如，那些在等待健康消息时被鼓励“积极思考”的病人可能很难管理他们对悲观的预期，以努力为坏消息做好准备。相反，那些在等待健康消息时被鼓励“面对残酷现实”的患者可能很难通过重新评估他们的优先事项或拥抱充满希望的前景来控制他们的焦虑。不确定性导航模型包括一系列潜在有效的策略，以尽量减少对不确定性的焦虑，其中任何一种策略在某些情况下或对某些人来说都可能比其他策略更有效，该模型和拟议研究的一个贡献是，它们可以揭示对不确定性的合理反应的多样性。此外，拟议的研究有可能揭示导航不确定性的最佳方式的关键和新颖见解。最后，拟议的研究确保代表性不足的群体的广泛参与。通常，研究团队中至少有四分之三的人是种族或少数民族，60%至75%的人是女性。此外，女性约占研究人群的48%，少数民族约占35%。