CAREER: Empirical Studies of Technology Adoption

摘要提案标题：职业：技术采用的实证研究提案编号：SE-1254167首席调查员：帕斯卡琳·杜帕斯：更多地采用现有技术可以显著改善发展中国家的各个方面的福祉。通过采用疫苗、抗疟疾蚊帐和口服补液盐等现有技术，可以消除三分之二的儿童死亡率。撒哈拉以南非洲的玉米平均产量比同一地区农业推广人员使用目前富裕国家普遍采用的技术(如改良种子品种和化肥)获得的产量低三到五倍。如何才能在发展中国家更多地采用这些技术和其他技术？家庭和供应商面临哪些障碍？如何克服这些障碍？这一职业奖下的研究旨在通过以下方式增进我们对发展中国家技术采用的理解：(A)通过在纵向数据收集工作中嵌入一系列实地试验，对技术采用的三个决定因素--补贴、资金准入和教育--进行经济学理论的实证测试；(B)增加对发展感兴趣的学生和教育工作者的教育机会；以及(C)填补可供制定促进技术过渡的政策和计划的实践者使用的知识库中的空白。研究部分有三条线索。第一个研究链利用加纳和马拉维的随机补贴实验，结合测量方法的创新，研究对一项新技术的补贴何时以及如何能够促进对其有效性的学习并引发传播。目前正在考虑需求方和供应方的因素，特别是：如何将补贴对准那些最有可能真正试验新技术的人，以及一旦建立了目标计划，如何限制腐败，并确保补贴达到目标。第二个研究链利用肯尼亚、马拉维和乌干达获得金融产品的随机变量来估计金融排斥如何阻碍技术的采用。也就是说，非洲农村绝大多数穷人的借贷能力有限，也没有正规的储蓄手段，这一事实是否限制了技术的采用？哪些金融产品可以增加他们在技术上的投资，为什么市场不提供这些产品？第三个研究线利用加纳对年轻人的教育补贴随机分配，结合一个为期10年的小组数据集，估计中学教育对技术采用的因果影响，并阐明途径：中学教育是否使个人具备与技术互补的认知技能，使他们能够更容易地了解技术，还是教育对技术采用的影响主要通过收入效应发挥作用？这一研究议程嵌入了一项全面的教育计划，旨在向发展中国家的政策制定者传播研究成果和方法，使高中生和本科生更好地了解发展问题，并提高他们对发展问题的兴趣，并为大学生和大学毕业生以及希望研究发展问题的研究生提供国际研究机会。这项工作将产生和传播有关政策制定者和实践者辩论的问题的新证据，不仅是政府中的问题，也包括影响全球发展议程和资源分配的机构的问题，从私人基金会到双边机构，如美国国际开发署和多边机构，如联合国和世界银行。其中一场辩论是关于新技术在首次引入时是否以及如何得到补贴。拟议的工作将为这场辩论提供信息，可能会影响补贴的设计，以鼓励立即和长期的扩散。另一场辩论是关于向农村贫困人口扩大银行服务的相对成本和收益。拟议的工作将为这场辩论提供信息，可能会影响贫穷国家提供者和家庭的监管和激励。还有一场辩论是关于中等教育的重要性。有很多证据表明小学教育的重要性，但很少有关于小学后教育的证据。拟议的工作将有助于证明中学教育的私人和社会回报，潜在地影响中学教育的扩大。最后，拟议的工作将产生创新的调查工具和丰富的小组数据集，并将其公之于众，这样做将刺激进一步的相关研究。

Abstract Proposal Title: CAREER: Empirical Studies of Technology AdoptionProposal Number: SES - 1254167 Principal Investigator: Pascaline Dupas Higher adoption of available technology could significantly improve various aspects of wellbeing in developing countries. Two thirds of child mortality could be eliminated through adoption of available technologies, such as vaccines, antimalarial bednets, and oral rehydration salts. Average maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa are three to five times lower than yields attained by agricultural extension workers in the same region using technologies now universal in rich countries, such as improved seed varieties and fertilizer. How can adoption of these and other technologies be increased in developing countries? What barriers do households and providers face? How can these barriers be overcome? The research under this CAREER award aims to advance our understanding of technology adoption in developing countries through: (a) enabling and performing empirical tests of economic theory on three determinants of technology adoption- subsidies, financial access, and education - through a series of field experiments embedded in longitudinal data collection efforts; (b) enhancing educational opportunities for students and educators interested in development; and (c) filling gaps in the knowledge base available to the practitioners who develop policies and programs to foster technological transition. The research component has three strands. The first research strand exploits randomized subsidy experiments in Ghana and Malawi, combined with innovation in measurements, to examine when and how subsidies for a new technology can foster learning about its effectiveness and trigger diffusion. Both demand-side and supply-side factors are being considered, in particular: how to target subsidies to those most likely to actually experiment with the new technology, and once a targeting scheme has been established, how to limit corruption and guarantee the subsidy reaches those it targets. The second research strand exploits randomized variation in access to financial products in Kenya, Malawi and Uganda to estimate how financial exclusion impedes technology adoption. Namely, does the fact that the great majority of the poor in rural Africa have limited ability to borrow and no formal means to save limit technology adoption? What financial products can boost their investments in technology and why does the market not provide them? The third research strand exploits the randomized assignment of education subsidies to youths in Ghana, combined with a 10-year panel dataset, to estimate the causal impact of secondary education on technology adoption and shed light on the pathways: does secondary education equip individuals with cognitive skills that are complementary with technology, does it enable them to hear about technology more easily, or does the effect of education on technology adoption operate primarily through an income effect? This research agenda embeds a comprehensive education plan aimed at disseminating the research findings and methods to policymakers from the developing world, enabling better understanding of and greater interest in development issues among high school and undergraduate students, and offering international research opportunities for college students and college graduates, as well as for graduate students wanting to study development issues.This work will generate and disseminate new evidence on questions debated by policymakers and practitioners, not only those in government but also those in institutions that shape global development agendas and resource allocation, from private foundations to bilateral agencies such as USAID and multilateral agencies such as the UN and the World Bank. One such debate is on whether and how new technologies should be subsidized when they are first introduced. The proposed work will inform this debate, potentially impacting the design of subsidies to encourage immediate and long-term diffusion. Another debate is on the relative costs and benefits of expanding banking services to the rural poor. The proposed work will inform this debate, potentially impacting the regulation and incentives of both providers and households in poor countries. Yet another debate is on the importance of secondary education. There is much evidence on the importance of primary education but little on that of post-primary education. The proposed work will contribute evidence on both the private and social returns to secondary education, potentially impacting expansion of secondary education. Finally, the proposed work will generate innovative survey instruments and rich panel datasets and make them public, and in doing so will stimulate further relevant research.