CAREER: Empirical Studies of Technology Adoption

摘要提案题目：职业：技术采用的实证研究提案号：SES - 1254167首席研究员：Pascaline Dupas对现有技术的更高采用可以显著改善发展中国家福祉的各个方面。通过采用现有技术，如疫苗、抗疟疾蚊帐和口服补液盐，可以消除三分之二的儿童死亡率。撒哈拉以南非洲地区的平均玉米产量比同一地区农业推广人员使用改良种子品种和肥料等目前在富裕国家普遍使用的技术所获得的产量低三到五倍。如何在发展中国家增加对这些技术和其他技术的采用？家庭和提供者面临哪些障碍？如何克服这些障碍？职业发展奖下的研究旨在通过以下方式增进我们对发展中国家技术采用的理解：(a)通过纵向数据收集工作中嵌入的一系列实地实验，对技术采用的三个决定因素——补贴、金融获取和教育——的经济理论进行实证检验；(b)增加对发展有兴趣的学生和教育工作者的教育机会；(c)填补为促进技术转型而制定政策和项目的实践者可用的知识库空白。研究部分有三个部分。第一个研究链利用加纳和马拉维的随机补贴实验，结合测量方法的创新，来检验对一项新技术的补贴何时以及如何促进对其有效性的了解并引发传播。需求侧和供给侧的因素都在考虑之中，特别是：如何将补贴瞄准那些最有可能实际试验新技术的人，以及一旦确定了目标计划，如何限制腐败并保证补贴到达目标人群。第二个研究链利用肯尼亚、马拉维和乌干达金融产品获取的随机差异来估计金融排斥如何阻碍技术采用。也就是说，非洲农村的绝大多数穷人借贷能力有限，没有正式的储蓄手段，这一事实是否限制了技术的采用？哪些金融产品可以促进他们对技术的投资，为什么市场没有提供这些产品？第三个研究链利用加纳青年教育补贴的随机分配，结合10年面板数据集，估计中等教育对技术采用的因果影响，并阐明途径：中等教育是否使个人具备与技术互补的认知技能，是否使他们更容易听到技术，还是教育对技术采用的影响主要是通过收入效应来发挥作用？该研究议程包含了一项全面的教育计划，旨在向发展中国家的决策者传播研究成果和方法，使高中生和本科生更好地了解和更感兴趣发展问题，并为大学生和大学毕业生以及想要研究发展问题的研究生提供国际研究机会。这项工作将产生和传播决策者和实践者讨论的问题的新证据，不仅是政府的决策者和实践者，还有那些塑造全球发展议程和资源分配的机构的决策者和实践者，从私人基金会到美国国际开发署等双边机构，以及联合国和世界银行等多边机构。其中一个争论是关于新技术首次引入时是否应该补贴以及如何补贴。拟议的工作将为这场辩论提供信息，可能影响鼓励即时和长期传播的补贴设计。另一个争论是关于向农村贫困人口扩大银行服务的相对成本和收益。拟议的工作将为这场辩论提供信息，可能影响贫穷国家提供者和家庭的监管和激励措施。另一个争论是关于中等教育的重要性。关于小学教育的重要性有很多证据，但关于小学后教育的证据却很少。拟议的工作将为中等教育的私人和社会回报提供证据，可能影响中等教育的扩张。最后，拟议的工作将产生创新的调查工具和丰富的面板数据集，并将其公之于众，这样做将刺激进一步的相关研究。

Abstract Proposal Title: CAREER: Empirical Studies of Technology AdoptionProposal Number: SES - 1254167 Principal Investigator: Pascaline Dupas Higher adoption of available technology could significantly improve various aspects of wellbeing in developing countries. Two thirds of child mortality could be eliminated through adoption of available technologies, such as vaccines, antimalarial bednets, and oral rehydration salts. Average maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa are three to five times lower than yields attained by agricultural extension workers in the same region using technologies now universal in rich countries, such as improved seed varieties and fertilizer. How can adoption of these and other technologies be increased in developing countries? What barriers do households and providers face? How can these barriers be overcome? The research under this CAREER award aims to advance our understanding of technology adoption in developing countries through: (a) enabling and performing empirical tests of economic theory on three determinants of technology adoption- subsidies, financial access, and education - through a series of field experiments embedded in longitudinal data collection efforts; (b) enhancing educational opportunities for students and educators interested in development; and (c) filling gaps in the knowledge base available to the practitioners who develop policies and programs to foster technological transition. The research component has three strands. The first research strand exploits randomized subsidy experiments in Ghana and Malawi, combined with innovation in measurements, to examine when and how subsidies for a new technology can foster learning about its effectiveness and trigger diffusion. Both demand-side and supply-side factors are being considered, in particular: how to target subsidies to those most likely to actually experiment with the new technology, and once a targeting scheme has been established, how to limit corruption and guarantee the subsidy reaches those it targets. The second research strand exploits randomized variation in access to financial products in Kenya, Malawi and Uganda to estimate how financial exclusion impedes technology adoption. Namely, does the fact that the great majority of the poor in rural Africa have limited ability to borrow and no formal means to save limit technology adoption? What financial products can boost their investments in technology and why does the market not provide them? The third research strand exploits the randomized assignment of education subsidies to youths in Ghana, combined with a 10-year panel dataset, to estimate the causal impact of secondary education on technology adoption and shed light on the pathways: does secondary education equip individuals with cognitive skills that are complementary with technology, does it enable them to hear about technology more easily, or does the effect of education on technology adoption operate primarily through an income effect? This research agenda embeds a comprehensive education plan aimed at disseminating the research findings and methods to policymakers from the developing world, enabling better understanding of and greater interest in development issues among high school and undergraduate students, and offering international research opportunities for college students and college graduates, as well as for graduate students wanting to study development issues.This work will generate and disseminate new evidence on questions debated by policymakers and practitioners, not only those in government but also those in institutions that shape global development agendas and resource allocation, from private foundations to bilateral agencies such as USAID and multilateral agencies such as the UN and the World Bank. One such debate is on whether and how new technologies should be subsidized when they are first introduced. The proposed work will inform this debate, potentially impacting the design of subsidies to encourage immediate and long-term diffusion. Another debate is on the relative costs and benefits of expanding banking services to the rural poor. The proposed work will inform this debate, potentially impacting the regulation and incentives of both providers and households in poor countries. Yet another debate is on the importance of secondary education. There is much evidence on the importance of primary education but little on that of post-primary education. The proposed work will contribute evidence on both the private and social returns to secondary education, potentially impacting expansion of secondary education. Finally, the proposed work will generate innovative survey instruments and rich panel datasets and make them public, and in doing so will stimulate further relevant research.