CAREER: Empirical Studies of Technology Adoption

摘要提案标题：职业：更多地采用现有技术可以大大改善发展中国家福祉的各个方面。三分之二的儿童死亡率可以通过采用现有技术，如疫苗、抗疟疾蚊帐和口服补液盐来消除。撒哈拉以南非洲的玉米平均产量比同一地区农业推广人员使用富国目前普遍采用的技术（如改良种子品种和肥料）所获得的产量低三至五倍。如何在发展中国家更多地采用这些技术和其他技术？家庭和供应商面临哪些障碍？如何克服这些障碍？这项职业奖的研究旨在通过以下方式增进我们对发展中国家采用技术的理解：（a）通过纵向数据收集工作中的一系列实地实验，对采用技术的三个决定因素-补贴、资金获得和教育-进行经济理论的实证检验;（B）增加对发展感兴趣的学生和教育工作者的教育机会;以及（c）填补制定政策和方案以促进技术转型的从业人员可用的知识基础的空白。研究部分有三个方面。第一个研究链利用加纳和马拉维的随机补贴实验，结合测量方法的创新，研究对新技术的补贴何时以及如何促进对其有效性的了解并引发传播。需求方和供应方的因素都在考虑之中，特别是：如何将补贴瞄准那些最有可能实际试验新技术的人，以及一旦确定了目标计划，如何限制腐败并确保补贴达到目标。第二项研究利用肯尼亚、马拉维和乌干达获得金融产品的随机变化来估计金融排斥如何阻碍技术采用。也就是说，非洲农村的绝大多数穷人借贷能力有限，没有正式的储蓄手段，这一事实是否限制了技术的采用？哪些金融产品可以促进他们对技术的投资，为什么市场不能提供这些产品？第三项研究利用加纳青年教育补贴的随机分配，结合10年的面板数据集，估计中等教育对技术采用的因果影响，并阐明途径：中等教育是否使个人具备与技术互补的认知技能，是否使他们更容易了解技术，还是教育对技术采用的影响主要是通过收入效应来实现的？这一研究议程包含一项全面的教育计划，旨在向发展中国家的决策者传播研究成果和方法，使高中生和本科生更好地了解发展问题并对此产生更大兴趣，并为大学生和大学毕业生提供国际研究机会，这项工作将产生和传播关于决策者和实践者所辩论的问题的新证据，不仅是政府中的人，而且还有那些影响全球发展议程和资源分配的机构，从私人基金会到双边机构，如美国国际开发署和多边机构，如联合国和世界银行。其中一个辩论是关于新技术在首次采用时是否应该以及如何得到补贴。拟议的工作将为这一辩论提供信息，可能会影响补贴的设计，以鼓励立即和长期的推广。另一场争论是关于向农村穷人扩大银行服务的相对成本和收益。拟议的工作将为这一辩论提供信息，可能会影响到贫穷国家提供者和家庭的监管和激励措施。另一个辩论是关于中等教育的重要性。有很多证据表明初等教育的重要性，但关于初等教育后教育的证据却很少。拟议的工作将有助于证明中等教育的私人和社会回报，可能影响中等教育的扩大。最后，拟议的工作将产生创新的调查工具和丰富的小组数据集，并将其公之于众，这样做将促进进一步的相关研究。

Abstract Proposal Title: CAREER: Empirical Studies of Technology AdoptionProposal Number: SES - 1254167 Principal Investigator: Pascaline Dupas Higher adoption of available technology could significantly improve various aspects of wellbeing in developing countries. Two thirds of child mortality could be eliminated through adoption of available technologies, such as vaccines, antimalarial bednets, and oral rehydration salts. Average maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa are three to five times lower than yields attained by agricultural extension workers in the same region using technologies now universal in rich countries, such as improved seed varieties and fertilizer. How can adoption of these and other technologies be increased in developing countries? What barriers do households and providers face? How can these barriers be overcome? The research under this CAREER award aims to advance our understanding of technology adoption in developing countries through: (a) enabling and performing empirical tests of economic theory on three determinants of technology adoption- subsidies, financial access, and education - through a series of field experiments embedded in longitudinal data collection efforts; (b) enhancing educational opportunities for students and educators interested in development; and (c) filling gaps in the knowledge base available to the practitioners who develop policies and programs to foster technological transition. The research component has three strands. The first research strand exploits randomized subsidy experiments in Ghana and Malawi, combined with innovation in measurements, to examine when and how subsidies for a new technology can foster learning about its effectiveness and trigger diffusion. Both demand-side and supply-side factors are being considered, in particular: how to target subsidies to those most likely to actually experiment with the new technology, and once a targeting scheme has been established, how to limit corruption and guarantee the subsidy reaches those it targets. The second research strand exploits randomized variation in access to financial products in Kenya, Malawi and Uganda to estimate how financial exclusion impedes technology adoption. Namely, does the fact that the great majority of the poor in rural Africa have limited ability to borrow and no formal means to save limit technology adoption? What financial products can boost their investments in technology and why does the market not provide them? The third research strand exploits the randomized assignment of education subsidies to youths in Ghana, combined with a 10-year panel dataset, to estimate the causal impact of secondary education on technology adoption and shed light on the pathways: does secondary education equip individuals with cognitive skills that are complementary with technology, does it enable them to hear about technology more easily, or does the effect of education on technology adoption operate primarily through an income effect? This research agenda embeds a comprehensive education plan aimed at disseminating the research findings and methods to policymakers from the developing world, enabling better understanding of and greater interest in development issues among high school and undergraduate students, and offering international research opportunities for college students and college graduates, as well as for graduate students wanting to study development issues.This work will generate and disseminate new evidence on questions debated by policymakers and practitioners, not only those in government but also those in institutions that shape global development agendas and resource allocation, from private foundations to bilateral agencies such as USAID and multilateral agencies such as the UN and the World Bank. One such debate is on whether and how new technologies should be subsidized when they are first introduced. The proposed work will inform this debate, potentially impacting the design of subsidies to encourage immediate and long-term diffusion. Another debate is on the relative costs and benefits of expanding banking services to the rural poor. The proposed work will inform this debate, potentially impacting the regulation and incentives of both providers and households in poor countries. Yet another debate is on the importance of secondary education. There is much evidence on the importance of primary education but little on that of post-primary education. The proposed work will contribute evidence on both the private and social returns to secondary education, potentially impacting expansion of secondary education. Finally, the proposed work will generate innovative survey instruments and rich panel datasets and make them public, and in doing so will stimulate further relevant research.