CAREER: Empirical Studies on the Role of Cities in Influencing Health and Economic Growth in the Long Run

职业：关于城市在长期影响健康和经济增长方面的作用的实证研究

• 批准号: 1552692
• 负责人: Walker Hanlon
• 金额: $ 41.64万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-03-01 至 2022-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1552692&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Empirical; Studies; Role; Cities

The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of cities and how their characteristics can influence welfare and economic growth over the long-term. The project focuses on two areas where new research methods and results are needed in order to inform ongoing policy debates. One strand of research focuses on improving our understanding of local networks of buyer-supplier relationships. Specifically, the PI studies how local buyer-supplier networks can improve firm performance, and the role that they play in spreading shocks across local economies. Improving our understanding of these issues can help us anticipate the impact that shocks to important local firms can have on the larger economy. The second research strand studies the tradeoff between encouraging industrial growth in cities and protecting the local environment, which has implications for the health of city residents, city growth, and population sorting. To make progress on these important issues, this project combines data tracking the economic development of cities over the long-run (across a period of 150 years) with new theoretical and econometric tools. The primary data set describes the evolution of city employment, by industry, for all industries in 31 cities. Additional information covers aspects of city health, education, marriage and fertility patterns, firm bankruptcies, etc. More analytically, the first strand of research in this project draws on these new data in order to understand (1) how inter-firm networks influence the long-term growth of cities and (2) the role that these networks play in the propagation of shocks through local economies. This involves adapting standard economic theories to the empirical setting, deriving theoretically-grounded estimating equations, and applying them to the data. This research stream can contribute to our understanding of cities and can help improve local industrial policy decisions, including the $80 billion in tax incentives that local and state governments in the U.S. use each year to attract industries.The second strand of research in this project tries to estimate the impact of local environmental degradation on local economic growth over the long run. Standard urban economic theories predict that local pollution will slow down economic growth by (1) making it more difficult for firms to attract and retain workers, and (2) by lowering the productivity and quality-of-life of workers by affecting their health. In this strand of work, the PI incorporates local pollution into a standard urban economic model. The model is then used to develop a theoretically-grounded estimation approach for measuring the impact of local pollution on local employment growth over the long-run. The PI also studies the long-term health effects of local pollution. The results can help improve our understanding of the economic costs of local industrial pollution and the economic impact of local environmental regulation.

该项目的目标是提高我们对城市的理解，以及它们的特征如何影响长期的福利和经济增长。该项目侧重于两个需要新的研究方法和成果的领域，以便为正在进行的政策辩论提供信息。其中一个研究重点是提高我们对当地买家-供应商关系网络的理解。具体而言，PI研究当地买方供应商网络如何提高公司业绩，以及它们在当地经济中传播冲击方面所发挥的作用。提高我们对这些问题的理解可以帮助我们预测对重要的当地公司的冲击可能对更大的经济产生的影响。第二个研究链研究鼓励城市工业增长和保护当地环境之间的权衡，这对城市居民的健康，城市增长和人口分类有影响。为了在这些重要问题上取得进展，该项目将跟踪城市长期（跨越150年）经济发展的数据与新的理论和计量经济学工具相结合。主要数据集按行业描述了31个城市所有行业的城市就业演变情况。更多的信息包括城市健康、教育、婚姻和生育模式、企业破产等方面。更深入地分析，本项目的第一部分研究利用这些新数据，以了解（1）企业间网络如何影响城市的长期增长，以及（2）这些网络在通过地方经济传播冲击方面发挥的作用。这涉及使标准经济理论适应经验环境，推导出有理论基础的估计方程，并将其应用于数据。这一研究有助于我们了解城市，并有助于改善地方产业政策的决策，包括美国地方和州政府每年用于吸引产业的800亿美元税收优惠。本项目的第二部分研究试图评估地方环境恶化对地方经济增长的长期影响。标准的城市经济理论预测，地方污染将减缓经济增长，因为（1）企业更难吸引和留住工人，（2）影响工人的健康，降低他们的生产力和生活质量。在这一系列工作中，PI将当地污染纳入标准的城市经济模型。然后，该模型被用来开发一个理论上接地的估计方法，衡量当地污染对当地就业增长的影响，从长远来看。PI还研究了当地污染对健康的长期影响。研究结果有助于我们更好地理解地方工业污染的经济成本和地方环境管制的经济影响。

项目成果

Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866 to 1965

伦敦的气温、疾病和死亡：分析 1866 年至 1965 年本世纪的每周数据

• DOI: 10.1017/s0022050720000613
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The Journal of Economic History
• 作者: Hanlon, W. Walker;Hansen, Casper Worm;Kantor, Jake
• 通讯作者: Kantor, Jake

Agglomeration: A long-run panel data approach

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2017.01.001
• 发表时间: 2017-05-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Hanlon, W. Walker;Miscio, Antonio
• 通讯作者: Miscio, Antonio