Trend Productivity Growth and Labor Market Frictions in a New Keynesian Business Cycle Model

新凯恩斯经济周期模型中的生产力增长趋势和劳动力市场摩擦

• 批准号: 209667994
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Dennis Snower, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW Kiel)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2011-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/209667994?language=en
• 关键词: Trend; Productivity; Growth; Labor; Market

Until recently, most New Keynesian business cycle models used for monetary and fiscal policy analyses have ignored two empirically relevant features, namely, trend productivity growth and unemployment. Recent research has addressed the role of trend productivity growth and unemployment but only within two separate strands of the literature. In models with trend productivity growth, the labor market matters only due to wage rigidity and firms adjust labor input only along what is known as the intensive margin (hours worked). Thus, they can not account for unemployment fluctuations and other labor market outcomes. Models including labor market frictions take account of unemployment and generate output persistence. However, their quantitative properties have been shown to be counterfactual. Moreover, the dynamics in these models are driven by temporary productivity shocks, with no role for trend productivity growth. Consequently, they can not deal with issues such as how a change in trend productivity growth affects unemployment. The project aims at merging the two strands of the literature with the goal of having a unified framework for the analysis of monetary and fiscal policy that (i) better fits the stylized facts, e.g., unemployment fluctuations, and (ii) allows for the interaction of business cycle and growth effects. Alternative labor market frictions will be modelled and calibrated for the US and Germany in order to analyze optimal policy responses to temporary and permanent shocks.

直到最近，大多数用于货币和财政政策分析的新凯恩斯主义商业周期模型都忽略了两个与经验相关的特征，即趋势生产率增长和失业。最近的研究讨论了趋势生产率增长和失业的作用，但只在两个独立的文献链。在趋势生产率增长的模型中，劳动力市场的重要性只在于工资刚性，企业只会沿着所谓的密集边际（工作时间）调整劳动力投入。因此，它们无法解释失业波动和其他劳动力市场结果。包括劳动力市场摩擦的模型考虑了失业和产出持续性。然而，它们的数量属性已被证明是反事实的。此外，这些模型中的动态是由暂时的生产率冲击驱动的，而没有趋势生产率增长的作用。因此，他们无法处理诸如趋势生产率增长的变化如何影响失业等问题。该项目旨在合并两种文献，目标是为货币和财政政策的分析建立一个统一的框架，（i）更好地符合程式化的事实，例如，失业波动，（ii）考虑到商业周期和增长效应的相互作用。将为美国和德国建立替代劳动力市场摩擦模型并进行校准，以分析对临时和永久冲击的最佳政策反应。