EAGER: Collaborative Research: Climate and Glacier change in Bhutan: the last millennia, present and future

EAGER：合作研究：不丹的气候和冰川变化：过去的千年、现在和未来

• 批准号: 1256551
• 负责人: Summer Rupper
• 金额: $ 3.39万
• 依托单位: Brigham Young University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2014-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1256551&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; Collaborative; Research; Climate; Glacier

Environmental Change in the Himalayas impacts societies in the most densely populated area on Earth. Rapid glacier retreat in the monsoonal Himalayas affects river discharge, energy production, and agriculture. A serious threat is posed by outburst floods from glacial lakes in the Himalayan country of Bhutan. Bhutan's welfare is directly linked to glacier dynamics because the country's primary source of income, exported hydropower, as well as the national agricultural irrigation infrastructure, are fueled by glacier melt. Melting glaciers and the steep relief have made outburst floods a prime hazard for Bhutan and their Himalayan neighbors, and the hazard potential depends on current and future glacier melt. Determining the rate of glacier retreat in response to climate change is fundamental for predicting future flood probabilities and for designing adaption and mitigation strategies for Bhutanese society. Currently the rate of glacier retreat is very poorly constrained. This EAGER proposal seeks funds to take the first step towards providing robust information about past, present and future glacier and climate change in Bhutan, and in turn contribute to a more robust scientific data for decision makers and mitigation strategists. The identified target area for this EAGER project is Rhapstreng Glacier, in the Lunana area of Bhutan. Over the last decade the PIs have established connections to the scientific and political leadership in Bhutan, in particular with the Department of Energy/Ministry of Economical Affairs and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environment (UWICE), and have also identified excellent climate and environmental records: (i) Outstanding past glacier records, consisting of well-preserved moraine sequences; (ii) Conifer tree species which will allow the PIs to reconstruct climate, especially summer temperature, back through the Little Ice Age and into late-Medieval times; (iii) Bhutanese glaciers that are, according to preliminary mass balance modeling in the Himalaya, particularly sensitive to changes in temperature as compared to precipitation, making them excellent targets for more refined glaciological modeling, and making the tree-ring reconstructions particularly useful to the glacier reconstructions. The grant supports a concerted field campaign, including geomorphology, geochronology, paleothermometry, and glaciology in order to lay the foundation for reconstructing glacier histories and climate change over the last millennia, and to better predict Himalayan glacier change over the next centuries. The PIs have assembled a multidisciplinary team of experts with broad experience in Himalayan glacier and climate problems, including a female junior faculty at a primarily undergraduate university. This EAGER proposal is the first step towards a bilateral educational program, including bilateral student exchange between CU and UWICE and integration of Bhutanese students in annual field campaigns.

喜马拉雅山的环境变化影响着地球上人口最稠密地区的社会。季风性喜马拉雅山的冰川迅速消退影响了河流流量、能源生产和农业。喜马拉雅国家不丹冰川湖泊爆发的洪水构成了严重威胁。不丹的福利与冰川动态直接相关，因为该国的主要收入来源——出口水电，以及国家农业灌溉基础设施——都是由冰川融化提供燃料的。冰川融化和陡峭的地形使洪水爆发成为不丹及其喜马拉雅邻国的主要威胁，而潜在的危害取决于当前和未来的冰川融化。确定冰川因气候变化而退缩的速度，对于预测未来洪水的可能性以及为不丹社会设计适应和缓解战略至关重要。目前，冰川退缩的速度很难得到控制。这项EAGER提案寻求资金，以便迈出第一步，提供关于不丹过去、现在和未来冰川和气候变化的可靠信息，进而为决策者和减缓战略人员提供更可靠的科学数据。这个EAGER项目确定的目标区域是不丹Lunana地区的Rhapstreng冰川。在过去十年中，pi与不丹的科学和政治领导层建立了联系，特别是与能源部/经济部和Ugyen Wangchuck保护与环境研究所（UWICE）建立了联系，并且还确定了出色的气候和环境记录：(i)出色的过去冰川记录，包括保存完好的冰碛序列；（二）针叶树种类，这些树种将使pi能够从小冰河期到中世纪晚期重建气候，特别是夏季温度；根据喜马拉雅地区初步的质量平衡模型，不丹冰川与降水相比对温度变化特别敏感，这使它们成为更精细的冰川学模型的极佳目标，并使树木年轮重建对冰川重建特别有用。该基金支持一项协调一致的实地研究，包括地貌学、地质年代学、古温学和冰川学，目的是为重建过去一千年的冰川历史和气候变化奠定基础，并更好地预测未来几个世纪喜马拉雅冰川的变化。ppi组织了一个多学科的专家团队，他们在喜马拉雅冰川和气候问题上有丰富的经验，其中包括一名主要是本科大学的女初级教员。这项EAGER提案是双边教育计划的第一步，包括CU和UWICE之间的双边学生交换，以及不丹学生参与年度实地活动。