New Perspectives on Storm Track Dynamics, Variability, and Change

风暴轨迹动力学、变率和变化的新视角

• 批准号: 1261311
• 负责人: Edmund Chang
• 金额: $ 57.31万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Stony Brook
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-03-15 至 2018-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1261311&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: New; Perspectives; Storm; Track; Dynamics

Mid-latitude storm tracks form an important part of the global circulation. Cyclones passing along the storm tracks dominate the day-to-day weather variability, and changes in storm track activity or location strongly impact regional climate variations. Baroclinic waves that make up the storm tracks are also responsible for transporting much of the heat, moisture, and momentum poleward in the midlatitudes. Thus, the understanding of storm track dynamics and variability, as well as how they may change in the future, is of great importance.Diagnostic analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), simulations by multiple state-of-the-art climate models, prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) will be undertaken. Two aspects of storm tracks--storm energy and cyclone frequency and strength--will be examined to provide comprehensive new perspectives of storm track dynamics, variability and change. Storm tracks simulated by state-of-the-art climate models will be compared to those derived from reanalysis data to document model biases, and differences in storm track variability and change among the different climate models. Making use of the unprecedented quality and diversity of model simulations, the relationship between cyclone frequency and strength and mean flow variability will be examined. Results of these studies will provide insights on the physical processes that lurk behind model biases and differences, and furnish new ideas regarding how these biases and differences might impact model projections.

中纬度风暴路径是全球环流的重要组成部分。沿着风暴路径经过的气旋主导着每天的天气变化，风暴路径活动或位置的变化强烈影响着区域气候变化。构成风暴路径的斜压波也负责将大部分热量、水分和动量输送到中纬度地区。因此，了解风暴路径的动态和变异性以及它们在未来可能如何变化是非常重要的，将对耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）进行诊断分析，该项目是为政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告编写的多个最先进的气候模式的模拟。风暴路径的两个方面----风暴能量和气旋频率和强度----将得到审查，以提供关于风暴路径动力学、变异性和变化的全面的新观点。最先进的气候模式模拟的风暴轨迹将与再分析数据得出的风暴轨迹进行比较，以记录模式偏差以及不同气候模式之间风暴轨迹变率和变化的差异。利用前所未有的质量和多样性的模式模拟，气旋频率和强度与平均流量变异之间的关系将被检查。这些研究的结果将提供有关隐藏在模型偏差和差异背后的物理过程的见解，并就这些偏差和差异如何影响模型预测提供新的想法。