Collaborative Research: Understanding and Forecasting North Atlantic and US Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Activity and Associated Rainfall

该项目将促进我们对北大西洋和美国登陆热带气旋（TCs）的发生、发展和跟踪的物理过程的理解。该小组将把新获得的物理见解应用于发展北大西洋和美国登陆的热带气旋及其相关降雨量的季节性预报系统。该方法分为三个阶段：第一阶段将重点推进对北大西洋和美国登陆TC活动的物理过程的理解。第二阶段将利用第一阶段建立的知识，开发一个热带风暴活动的季节性预报系统。第三阶段将侧重于美国登陆期间和之后与热带风暴相关的降雨量的季节性预报。这些方法建立在PI和Co-PI拥有丰富经验的分析工具和数据集的基础上，并在这里进一步发展，以解决与tc登陆相关的降雨问题。

This project will advance our understanding of the physical processes responsible for the genesis, development and tracking of North Atlantic and US landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The team will apply newly gained physical insights towards the development of a seasonal forecasting system of North Atlantic and US landfalling TCs and associated rainfall. The approach follows in three phases: Phase I will focus on advancing the understanding of the physical processes responsible for the North Atlantic and US landfalling TC activity. Phase II will develop a seasonal forecasting system of TC activity using the knowledge established in Phase I. Phase III will focus on the seasonal forecast of rainfall associated with TCs during and after US landfall. The methodologies build on analysis tools and data sets that the PI and Co-PI have extensive experience with, and developed further here to address the problem of rainfall associated with landfalling TCs.