Collaborative Research: Mitigating Emergent System Behavior through System Evolvability

这个合作项目的研究目标是发现复杂工程系统（CES）的可进化性的原则，并了解如何使用服务阶段的进化来减少负面的紧急行为，面对不可预见的未来需求。在为社会提供基本利益的同时，复杂系统的设计通常具有挑战性，因为它们具有（i）复杂的内部交互，（ii）长的开发时间，（iii）与扩展服务窗口相关的生命周期，以及（iv）表现出意外的紧急行为。为了应对这些挑战，本研究项目将开始进行实证研究，以了解现有的CES如何演变的服务，以应对紧急需求。这些研究将被用来深入了解为什么某些CES比其他CES更有效地进化。不同的措施和模型的可进化性，然后将探索和验证，以指导设计师在操纵CES的演变。最后，这个项目将探讨如何服务阶段的演化信息可以集成到一个价值模型，以及不同的演化策略如何影响整个系统的价值。如果成功的话，这项工作将开始，以解决一个反复出现的主题，从最近的CES研讨会强调需要控制和利用系统的演化性。该项目的结果将大大促进对系统设计与系统趋势之间关系的理解，通过识别和编目实践工程师可以访问的有用原则，通过进化来减轻紧急行为。通过探索指标来表征系统的可演化性，本研究将促进从各种设计工具来描述系统的能力和量化的影响所提供的各种进化的可能性的信息的合成。将这些见解与价值驱动设计相联系，将研究可演化性与系统价值之间的关系，同时进一步使用和验证这种设计方法。这项工作的经验教训和贡献将通过出版物、互联网上的设计营教学模块、与行业支持的互动以及会议进行传播。最后，学生通过在NCSU和杨百翰大学校园的暑期设计营参与将授予系统设计的第一手经验，并汇集不同背景和思想的学生。

The research objective of this collaborative project is to discover the principles governing the evolvability of complex engineered systems (CES) and understand how service-phase evolution can be used to reduce negative emergent behavior in the face of unforeseen future needs. While providing essential benefits to society, complex systems are unusually challenging to design because they have (i) elaborate internal interactions, (ii) long development times, (iii) lifecycles associated with extended service windows, and (iv) exhibit unanticipated emergent behavior. To address these challenges, this research project will begin by conducting empirical studies to understand how existing CES have evolved in-service in response to emergent needs. These studies will be used to draw insights about why certain CES are more effective at evolving than others. Different measures and models of evolvability will be then be explored and validated to guide designers in manipulating the evolution of CES. Finally, this project will explore how information about service-phase evolution can be integrated into a value model, and how different evolution strategies impact overall system value. If successful, this work will begin to address a recurring theme from recent CES workshops highlighting the need to control and capitalize on system evolvability. Results from this project will significantly advance understanding of the relationship between system design and the tendency for systems to mitigate emergent behavior through evolution by identifying and cataloging useful principles that can be accessed by practicing engineers. By exploring metrics to characterize system evolvability, this research will facilitate the synthesis of information from various design tools to describe system capabilities and quantify the impact provided by various evolution possibilities. Linking these insights to value-driven design will study the relationship between evolvability and system value while furthering the use and validation of this design approach. Lessons learned and contributions of this work will be disseminated through publications, internet-available design camp teaching modules, interactions with industry supports, and at conferences. Finally, student involvement through summer design camps at both NCSU and BYU campuses will grant first-hand experience in system design and bring together students of diverse backgrounds and thinking.