Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events

合作提案:北极放大在改变中纬度大气环流和促进极端天气事件中的作用

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1304398
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2013-07-01 至 2019-06-30
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Intellectual Merit: recent work has suggested and demonstrated a mechanism connecting Arctic Amplification (AA ? enhanced Arctic warming) with an increased probability of extreme weather events in northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, as well as a feedback to arctic wind patterns that drive further ice loss. This study will extend this work using output from reanalyses, model simulations from the CMIP5 archive, and experimental CESM model runs to investigate how and why the ongoing loss of arctic sea ice and high-latitude terrestrial snow cover may cause mid-latitude weather patterns to change. Past and projected patterns in 500 hPa heights will be analyzed using a combination of Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) ? a neural-network-based technique that reduces large data sets to their representative patterns ? a new meridional circulation index, and an extreme weather index to address the hypothesis that Arctic Amplification of past and future global climate change promotes circulation patterns that favor extreme weather events in middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The PIs suggest that changes in the energy budget of the arctic surface, because of sea-ice loss and earlier snow melt on high-latitude land, reduce meridional thickness gradients, which induce generally weaker zonal flow aloft and higher amplitude circulation features. They think these upper-level flow patterns slow the eastward progression of large-scale atmospheric Rossby waves, favoring more persistent weather conditions that increase the probability of extreme weather such as cold-air outbreaks, heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation. They believe the primary physical mechanism driving the change is an enhanced and seasonally varying arctic heating: in fall/winter it is ocean-based associated with substantial sea ice loss, while in warmer months it is land-based due primarily to earlier snow melt and reduced soil moisture. Higher-amplitude flow trajectories may also exacerbate sea-ice and snow-cover loss, thereby constituting a positive feedback loop.Because extreme weather events, such as temperature and precipitation extremes, are often caused by high-amplitude, slow-moving upper-level circulation patterns, this analysis will focus on detecting and characterizing these patterns, interpreting the weather conditions associated with them, and identifying regions that are likely to be affected. This study attempts to connect arctic change with the rest of the global climate system.Broader Impacts: Changes in extreme weather as a result of greenhouse gas accumulation will directly and dramatically affect millions of people across the globe, thus a better understanding and more accurate future projection of changes in the frequency, location, and severity of droughts, floods, and temperature extremes are urgently needed by decision-makers at all levels of society. Preliminary work has already attracted world-wide attention via articles in prominent newspapers, radio interviews, interviews for the Weather Channel, magazine articles, and numerous online blogs. This will also be an opportunity for a new post-doc. The PIs will prepare a module for the NSF-supported ?Beyond Penguins and Polar Bears? project for K-5 teachers. Both PIs make frequent public and school presentations on climate-change related issues, and because extreme weather is so relevant to society at large, results from the proposed study will figure prominently into these presentations.
智力优点:最近的工作提出并证明了一种机制,连接北极放大(AA?北极变暖加剧),北方中纬度地区发生极端天气事件的可能性增加,以及对北极风模式的反馈,导致进一步的冰损失。这项研究将使用再分析的输出,CMIP 5存档的模型模拟和实验CESM模型运行来扩展这项工作,以调查北极海冰和高纬度陆地积雪的持续损失如何以及为什么可能导致中纬度天气模式发生变化。过去和预测模式在500百帕高度将使用自组织地图(SOM)的组合进行分析?一种基于神经网络的技术,可以将大型数据集简化为它们的代表性模式?一个新的纬向环流指数和一个极端天气指数,以解决过去和未来全球气候变化的北极放大促进有利于北方中纬度极端天气事件的环流模式的假设。PI表明,北极表面的能量收支的变化,因为海冰损失和早期的高纬度陆地上的积雪融化,减少纬向厚度梯度,从而诱导一般较弱的纬向流高空和较高的振幅环流功能。他们认为,这些上层气流模式减缓了大规模大气罗斯贝波的东进,有利于更持久的天气条件,增加了冷空气爆发,热浪,干旱和强降水等极端天气的可能性。他们认为,推动这一变化的主要物理机制是北极变暖的增强和季节性变化:在秋季/冬季,它是基于海洋的,与大量的海冰损失有关,而在温暖的月份,它是基于陆地的,主要是由于早期的积雪融化和土壤水分减少。更高振幅的气流轨迹也可能加剧海冰和积雪的损失,从而构成一个正反馈回路。由于极端天气事件,如极端温度和降水,往往是由高振幅,缓慢移动的上层环流模式,这一分析将侧重于检测和表征这些模式,解释与它们相关的天气条件,并确定可能受影响的区域。本研究试图将北极变化与全球气候系统的其他部分联系起来。温室气体积累导致的极端天气变化将直接和显著地影响地球仪上数以百万计的人,因此,更好地了解和更准确地预测未来干旱、洪水、社会各阶层的决策者迫切需要了解极端气温的情况。通过著名报纸的文章、电台采访、天气频道的采访、杂志文章和众多在线博客,初步工作已经引起了全世界的关注。这也将是一个新的博士后的机会。PI将为NSF支持的?除了企鹅和北极熊?为K5教师服务。这两个PI经常就气候变化相关问题进行公开和学校演讲,由于极端天气与整个社会如此相关,因此拟议研究的结果将在这些演讲中占据突出地位。

项目成果

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Stephen Vavrus其他文献

Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene
末次盛冰期至全新世早期欧亚大陆的气候因素和人口变化
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104054
  • 发表时间:
    2023-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.9
  • 作者:
    Yanyan Yu;Feng He;Stephen Vavrus;Amber Johnson;Haibin Wu;Wenchao Zhang;Qiuzhen Yin;Junyi Ge;Chenglong Deng;Michael Petraglia;Zhengtang Guo
  • 通讯作者:
    Zhengtang Guo
Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene
  • DOI:
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104054
  • 发表时间:
    2023
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Yanyan Yu;Feng He;Stephen Vavrus;Amber Johnson;Haibin Wu;Wenchao Zhang;Qiuzhen Yin;Junyi Ge;Chenglong Deng;Michael Petraglia;Zhengtang Guo
  • 通讯作者:
    Zhengtang Guo

Stephen Vavrus的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Stephen Vavrus', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: Interactions between Arctic cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and sea ice in a warming climate
合作研究:气候变暖时北极气旋、大气河流和海冰之间的相互作用
  • 批准号:
    2043727
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic?
合作研究:P2C2——全新世晚期气候:自然还是人为?
  • 批准号:
    1602771
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Implications of the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis
合作研究:P2C2——早期人为假说的启示
  • 批准号:
    1203430
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Exploring the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis
合作研究:P2C2——探索早期人为假说
  • 批准号:
    0902802
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Climate Model Tests of the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis
合作研究:早期人为假说的气候模型测试
  • 批准号:
    0602270
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Proposal: The Roles of Clouds and Their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic System
合作提案:云及其同伙在调节北极系统轨迹中的作用
  • 批准号:
    0628910
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Global Climate Model Simulations of Extreme Cold-Air Outbreaks
合作研究:极端冷空气爆发的全球气候模型模拟
  • 批准号:
    0332099
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助金额:
    $ 38.09万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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