Collaborative Proposal: The Roles of Clouds and Their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic System

项目ABSTRACTTitle:本文提出的总体目标是确定和评估过去北极变化温和条件下的云特性、地表辐射通量、水平热量和水分输送、大尺度环流模式、海冰范围和融化开始之间的关系，以及未来模式预测的以永久性冰的急剧损失为特征的未来。随着北极冰层的消失，某些过去无足轻重的与云有关的相互作用可能会在中纬度地区发挥更大的作用，比如产生整体降温而不是变暖的影响。拟议的工作与ARCSS计划的新方向是一致的，因为它将提高我们对北极系统各组成部分之间联系的理解，以以前的工作为基础，整合现有数据集，解决交叉问题，调查空间和时间变异的原因，并调查一系列空间和时间尺度上各组成部分之间的关系。本研究不期望获得数据产品，因此不包括具体的数据存档计划。知识价值：现有数据集和再分析产品将与全球气候模式（GCM）模拟相结合，以识别和评估影响下坡地表辐射通量的重要因素，以及这些影响如何变化：1)过去在气候系统大尺度和大幅度变化期间；2)在过去的模式模拟中；3)由于本地和远程变率；4)季节性;5)和未来条件的模式预测。预期的结果是更全面地了解影响北极云特性的过程和条件，gcm模拟云特性和影响它们的因素之间的观测关系的能力，哪些与云相关的参数对北极冰损失起到增强或抑制作用，以及随着北极系统继续朝着新的状态发展，这些影响在未来将如何演变。更广泛的影响：就其本质而言，该项目是跨学科和跨领域的。它侧重于北极内外气候系统各组成部分之间的关系和相互作用，以及这些关系在未来可能发生的变化。最初的目标关系包括各种空间和时间尺度。因此，这项工作的更广泛影响自然在整个科学界广泛存在。三所大学的研究生将直接或间接参与该项目——其中一所是威斯康星大学的研究生——其方法和结果将为气候变化相关课程提供新的素材。最终，这些发现应该有助于更好地为决策者提供信息，这将有利于整个社会。华盛顿大学极地科学中心刚刚完成了由西雅图太平洋科学中心主办的第一届年度极地科学周末。展览、演示和讲座的结合将极地研究的各个方面带给了大约5000名参与者，包括K-12班和普通公众。将为计划在2008年和2009年举行的活动开发一个基于云在北极变化中的作用的模块。

PROJECT ABSTRACTTitle: The Roles of Clouds and their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic The overarching objectives of the proposed effort are to identify and evaluate relationships between cloud properties, surface radiation fluxes, horizontal heat and moisture transport, large-scale circulation patterns, sea ice extent, and melt onset in past conditions when Arctic change was moderate, and in the future, which models project will be characterized by dramatic loss of permanent ice. Certain cloud-related interactions that were insignificant in the past may play more mid-latitude-like roles as the Arctic's ice disappears, such as exerting an overall cooling rather than warming influence. The proposed effort is aligned with the new directions of the ARCSS program, as it will improve our understanding of linkages among components of the Arctic system, build upon previous work and integrate existing data sets, address cross-cutting questions, investigate causes of spatial and temporal variability, and investigate relationships among components in a range of space and time scales. Data products are not expected from this study, thus a specific plan for data archival is not included.Intellectual merit: Existing data sets and reanalysis products will be combined with global climate model (GCM) simulations to identify and evaluate important factors affecting downwelling surface radiation fluxes, and how these influences vary: 1) in the past during large-scale and large-magnitude shifts in the climate system; 2) among model simulations of the past; 3) owing to local and remote variability; 4) seasonally; 5) and in model projections of future conditions. The expected outcome is a more complete understanding of processes and conditions affecting Arctic cloud properties, the ability of GCMs to simulate observed relationships among cloud properties and factors that influence them, which cloud-related parameters exert either enhancing or dampening effects on Arctic ice loss, and how those effects can be expected to evolve in the future as the Arctic system continues on its trajectory toward a new state.Broader Impacts: By its very nature, this project is interdisciplinary and cross-cutting. It focuses on relationships and interactions among various components of the climate system, both within and outside the Arctic, and how these relationships might change in the future. The relationships initially targeted encompass a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The broader impacts of the work, consequently, are naturally extensive across the scientific community. Graduate students at three universities will participate directly and/or indirectly in the project -- one explicitly at the University of Wisconsin -- and the methodology and results will provide new fodder for courses related to climate change. Ultimately the findings should contribute to better informing policy makers, which will benefit society as a whole. The Polar Science Center at the University of Washington has just completed its first annual Polar Science Weekend hosted by the pacific Science Center in Seattle. A combination of exhibits, demonstrations and lectures brought various aspects of polar research to approximately 5,000 participants, including K-12 classes and the general public. A module based on the roles of clouds in Arctic change will be developed for the events planned for 2008 and 2009.